GMS Inc. (GMS) Q3 2021 Earnings Call Transcript

Image source: The Motley Fool.

GMS Inc. (GMS -0.67%)
Q3 2021 Earnings Call
Mar 4, 2021, 8:30 a.m. ET

Contents:

• Prepared Remarks
• Questions and Answers
• Call Participants

Prepared Remarks:

Operator

Greetings. Welcome to GMS Third Quarter Fiscal 2021 Earnings Conference Call and Webcast. [Operator Instructions] Please note this conference is being recorded.

I will now turn the conference over to Leslie Kratcoski, Vice President, Investor Relations. Leslie, you may now begin.

Leslie H. Kratcoski -- Vice President, Investor Relations

Thanks, Rob. Good morning and thank you for joining us for the GMS earnings conference call for the third quarter of fiscal 2021. I'm joined today by John Turner, President and Chief Executive Officer and Scott Deakin Vice President and Chief Financial Officer.

In addition to the press release issued this morning, we have posted presentation slides to accompany this call in the Investors section of our website at gms.com.

On today's call, management's prepared remarks and answers to your questions may contain forward-looking statements, as defined in the Private Securities Litigation Reform Act of 1995. Forward-looking statements address matters that are subject to risks and uncertainties, many of which are beyond our control and may cause actual results to differ from those discussed today.

As a reminder, forward-looking statements represent management's current estimates and expectations. The Company assumes no obligation to update any forward-looking statements in the future. Listeners are encouraged to review the more detailed discussions related to these forward-looking statements contained in the Company's filings with the SEC, including the Risk Factors section in the Company's 10-K and other periodic reports.

Today's presentation also includes a discussion of certain non-GAAP measures. The definitions and reconciliations of these non-GAAP measures are provided in the press release and presentation slides. Please note that references on this call to the third quarter of fiscal 2021 relate to the quarter ended January 31st, 2021. Finally, once we begin the question-and-answer session of the call, in the interest of time, we kindly request that you limit yourself to one question and one follow-up.

With that, I'll turn the call over to John Turner, J.T.?

John C. Turner, Jr. -- President & Chief Executive Officer

Thank you. Leslie. Good morning and thank you for joining us today. All of us at GMS hope everyone joining this call as well as your families and colleagues are remaining safe and well and that we may be getting closer to getting the COVID-19 pandemic behind us.

I'll start with a review of our operating highlights and then turn it over to Scott, who will cover our financial results. I'll then share some closing thoughts before taking your questions.

If you'd start on Slide 3, outstanding execution in the quarter by our entire team coupled with further strengthening in residential markets enabled us, again, to deliver results that exceeded our previous expectations. The overall operating environment can be described as nothing short of dynamic, including a stark contrast between a very strong residential market and continued softness in the commercial market as well as significant activity on the pricing front and tightening availability of several product categories.

Our team continues to seize the opportunities and address the challenges of this landscape, delivering an increase in net sales on a per day basis in the quarter. As anticipated, our gross margin of 32.4% was lower than the quarter record of 33.3% last year, but was in line with our prior expectation and consistent with that realized in the first half of the fiscal year.

Continued alignment of our cost structure to current demand enabled us to improve SG&A and adjusted SG&A as a percentage of sales for the third quarter in a row, while ensuring that we maintain the customer focus that continues to differentiate us in the market. As a result, we realized an adjusted EBITDA margin of 8.3% which reflects the 10 basis point improvement over the prior year despite lower sales.

We generated positive free cash flow and our balance sheet and liquidity position provide us with strong financial flexibility, enabling us to continue our focus drive for growth via both greenfields and M&A. On the health and safety front, we maintain enhanced operating protocols aimed at reducing the spread of COVID-19 and the health and safety of our employees, business partners and communities remains our top priority.

At the same time, we continued to realize benefits from the ongoing commitment to our strategic priorities. This is evidenced by our ability to generate higher volume in Wallboard through further penetration of residential end markets, increased sales of complementary other products and our execution of several platform expansion transactions during and just following the third quarter.

Considering the market undercurrents which we continue to navigate, we performed very well in the third quarter. My congratulations and thanks go out to the entire GMS team who made these results possible remaining engaged, focused, and proactive as we come together in support of our customers and each other. At the same time, we offer our gratitude for the continued partnership we share with both our customers and suppliers.

With that, I'll now turn it over to Scott to provide more perspective on our financial results for Q3. Scott?

Scott M. Deakin -- Vice President, Chief Financial Officer

Thanks J.T. Good morning, everyone. Looking at Slide 4, net sales of $751.2 million were down 1.3% year-over-year as continued COVID-19 market pressures in commercial construction were largely offset by higher sales to residential construction. Adjusting for the one less selling day year-over-year, daily net sales were up 0.3%. This is the first quarter of positive per day sales growth since the onset of the pandemic.

Organically, net sales and daily net sales were down just 1.9% and 0.3% respectively. The team's continued ability to reposition and realign resources to capture demand where it is the strongest allowed us to, again, exceed our previous sales expectations.

Wallboard sales of $311.1 million decreased 1% or 1.4% on an organic basis, due to a modest decline in price and mix, partially offset by slightly higher volume. On a per day basis, however, Wallboard sales increased 0.6% driven by 2.1% higher volume, as strong residential volume more than offset lower commercial activity. In light of our response to recent supplier pricing actions, realized Wallboard price was up sequentially from the second quarter as well as for the month of January, up on a year-over-year basis.

Ceilings sales of $101.9 million decreased 9.6% year-over-year. Virtually the same on an organic basis, driven by lower volume and mix, partially offset by higher price. Daily net sales of ceilings were down 8.1% year-over-year.

Steel framing sales of $104 million decreased 12.5% year-over-year. Again, similar on an organic basis due principally to a decline in volume and to a lesser extent, price and mix combined. On a per day basis, net sales of steel framing declined 11.1%. Reflecting the upward movement in commodity steel prices, our steel pricing was, like Wallboard, up sequentially from the second quarter as well as on a year-over-year basis for the month of January.

Consistent with the first half of fiscal 2021, year-over-year sales declines were seen principally in ceilings and steel, product categories tied primarily to commercial construction. Our commercial business exhibited a low double-digit year-over-year decline which was similar to what we experienced in the second quarter, our complementary other product sales of $234.2 million increased 8.7%, up 7.5% on an organic basis year-over-year due to our execution of growth initiatives to increase other product sales, positive contributions from acquisitions, and strong pricing in certain product categories including roofing, insulation, and lumber.

Strength in our Canadian business for which other products comprises a larger portion of sales also contributed to this growth. Daily net sales of other products were up an impressive 10.5%. Gross profit of $243.3 million decreased 4% compared to the third quarter of fiscal 2020. As expected, on a relatively difficult year-over-year comparison, gross margin of 32.4% declined 90 basis points, principally due to unfavorable mix in the commercial segment and price cost dynamics related to timing around the implementation of price actions.

Turning to Slide 5, adjusted SG&A expense as a percentage of net sales of 24.2% improved 100 basis points year-over-year. Approximately 120 basis points of that benefit was realized from continued disciplined cost containment and productivity initiatives as well as favorable business mix toward single-family residential with respect to operating costs. This was partially offset by 20 basis points associated with the previously mentioned deflationary price and unfavorable mix impact seen with certain of the Company's products.

As a result, third quarter adjusted EBITDA of $62.6 million was essentially flat compared to a year ago, despite a $10.2 million decrease in sales for the quarter. Adjusted EBITDA margin of 8.3% improved 10 basis points year-over-year and represented a modest 1% decremental adjusted EBITDA margin.

Turning to Slide 6, we generated a free cash flow of $38.4 million or 61% of adjusted EBITDA in the third quarter. This was lower year-over-year, principally due to some proactive inventory build in advance of manufacturer price increases and to ensure product availability for our customers and made the anticipation of certain areas of tightening supply. Despite these actions, we generated healthy free cash flow and expect to continue to do so.

Capital expenditures of $6 million were consistent with last year and we maintain our estimate for cash capital expenditures in fiscal 2021 of approximately $25 million. As of January 31st, 2021, we had cash on hand of $150.6 million and $407 million of available liquidity under our revolving credit facilities. During the third quarter, we reduced our net debt by $34.3 million and net debt leverage was 2.9 times, down from 3 times at the end of the second quarter of fiscal 2021 and down from the 3.3 times as of the end of the third quarter of fiscal 2020.

Our balance sheet remains healthy and our liquidity position affords us ample resources to continue pursuit of our strategic growth priorities.

With that, now let me turn the call back over to J.T before we open the line for questions.

John C. Turner, Jr. -- President & Chief Executive Officer

Thank you, Scott. While we remain laser focused tactically in the current environment, we continue to execute on our long-term strategic growth priorities. Our third quarter progress on these four initiatives can be seen in many ways. First, expanding share in core products, particularly in geographies where we are under-penetrated. Our focus here is notably evidenced over the last few quarters by our increasing penetration in residential construction in geographies where we have historically been underrepresented. This enabled us to generate higher wallboard volumes year-over-year, overcoming continued softness in commercial construction.

Next, to diversify and profitably expand our product offering, we are focused on growing select other product opportunities outside of our core products. Our multiple initiatives in both the United States and Canada are bearing fruit as evidenced by higher year-over-year growth in this category for the third quarter in a row despite variability across our end markets.

Third, we're developing our platform through accretive acquisitions and greenfield opportunities while maintaining balanced progress in debt reduction. During the third quarter, we opened a new greenfield location in Waco, Texas. And stepping strongly into the fourth quarter, on February 1st, we closed on the acquisition of DL Buildings Supplies Inc., providing entrance to the important Ottawa, Gatineau market in Canada. We complemented this with further U.S. expansion launching a new location in the growing Atlantic City, New Jersey market as well as three new locations in Metro Memphis, Tennessee, complementing our already strong position in Nashville.

These moves enabled us to extend our geographic presence to four new and attractive markets. At the same time, with the strength of our free cash flow, we reduced our net debt by over $34 million. And finally, so that we deliver a best-in-class customer experience as well as drive productivity and further profit improvement, we are leveraging our scale and employing technology and best practices across the business.

Deployment of our e-commerce platform progresses with key adoption metrics by our customers continuing to increase. In addition, we are deploying data management and digital visualization dashboards initially focused on the sales teams, further leveraging our business intelligence capabilities to provide enhanced real time insights as we focus on further driving growth and profitability.

Before making some closing remarks, a few thoughts about our fourth quarter. In the near term, we expect the continued bifurcation in residential and commercial market conditions, continued strength in residential construction is well documented with a multitude of strong housing data and forecasts, particularly around single-family. Commercial construction remains challenged with external forecast calling for a wide range of low-to-high single-digit declines in calendar 2021. However, we are encouraged by the advancements being made in addressing COVID-19, particularly with respect to vaccine deployment and believe that those will ultimately enable resumption of growth in commercial demand.

For our fourth quarter ended April 30, we currently expect to generate a low double-digit year-over-year increase in reported sales, noting that last year's fourth quarter was significantly impacted by COVID-19 related shutdowns in March and April. This estimate assumes end market conditions similar to those experienced in the third quarter.

In terms of profitability, we anticipate a continuation of unfavorable mix and price-cost dynamics experienced in the third quarter, resulting in an expected year-over-year gross margin decline in the fourth quarter similar to that realized in the third quarter. As a result, and coupled with continued SG&A leverage, we expect to generate an incremental adjusted EBITDA margin within the range of 10% to 20% for the fourth quarter of fiscal 2021.

And turning to Slide 8, in closing, GMS is well positioned now and for the long term. As the North American market leader in the distribution of specialty interior construction products, we enjoy significant scale advantages, employ a differentiated service model and embrace an entrepreneurial culture. All three combined are enabling us to successfully execute for our customers and shareholders, while keeping the health and safety of our many contributing stakeholders as our top priority. At the same time, our strong free cash flow generation, balance sheet and liquidity provide not only near-term advantages but enable us to effectively pursue our strategic priorities to capitalize on long-term growth opportunities.

Finally, as we conclude with Slide 9, calendar 2021 marks the 50th anniversary of the founding of GMS and we are excited to be celebrating this important milestone. I am confident that our focus on our strategic priorities coupled with our team's capabilities and ongoing commitment to our tradition of delivering world-class service to our customers will enable us to generate value for our shareholders well into the future.

Operator, we are now ready to open the call for questions.

Questions and Answers:

Operator

Thank you. At this time, we'll be conducting a question-and-answer session. [Operator Instructions] Our first question today is coming from the line of Matthew Bouley with Barclays. Please proceed with your question.

Matthew Bouley -- Barclays -- Analyst

Hey, good morning. Thanks for taking the questions. I wanted to ask about the platform expansion. Just given you opened several new greenfields there at the end of the quarter and into the new quarter, is there anything we should read into that in terms of how you're thinking about M&A versus greenfields going forward or are you sort of thinking about de-levering the balance sheet, more or is that really just the timing issue. What kind of drove the decision to do so many greenfields there? Thank you.

John C. Turner, Jr. -- President & Chief Executive Officer

Hey good morning -- yeah, good morning, Matthew. So the reality of some of those greenfields where, those were existing businesses in the past that had struggled. And as we mentioned in prior calls, we had the opportunity to look at certain markets where there had been struggling competition. And so, while these were not actual purchases, they -- we classify them as greenfields. In many cases, these were previously existing businesses.

So we will be up and running much faster in those four markets than we would have been with a historical greenfield. So there is no real change in focus, we still have six to eight new greenfields slated for our -- for our next calendar year. We may have one or two more in the next quarter. I think that there is still a balance between acquisition and greenfield. No real change in the strategy. We just took advantage of some opportunity here to add some really nice markets very quickly.

Matthew Bouley -- Barclays -- Analyst

Okay, understood. Second one on the margin side, you discussed in the quarter some of the price-cost dynamics on the gross margin side impacting. Obviously there is more price increases we've heard sort of coming through the pike perhaps this month in wallboard. I think I heard you say that this expectation of some of these impacts should continue.

So my question is, is there any reason that as more price increases come down the line that the headwind you're currently seeing in the gross margin should get any larger than it already is? Or as you guys kind of catch-up on pricing, this kind of level of gross margin where we're at today should be relatively consistent? Just any kind of puts and takes on how to think about that going forward. Thank you.

John C. Turner, Jr. -- President & Chief Executive Officer

Yeah. I mean, I think you summarized it nicely in that as we continue to catch the price increases. There is a, there is a lag period obviously between the implementation price increases and what we actually paid for goods and then what we can -- what we can actually charge for those goods. And being GMS is being prudent and also being a customer-friendly company. There are times when we need to help our customers push pricing into the market as well. And in many cases it's more difficult for them than it is for us, and certainly more difficult for our customer base than it is for the manufacturing base to take price increases.

So they take -- they tend to take a little while to get through the pipeline and that's where we are right now. I think we just mentioned that we expect the fourth quarter to look a lot like the third quarter from a year-over-year decline perspective on a percentage basis. So, we're thinking the same kind of degree of increase and we're getting pricing and we mentioned that also in both steel and in wallboard. So it's just how much can we get through and with what's coming back up into the pipeline.

So the next big wallboard increase that's been announced is in April, but a lot of the other product categories, as you know, are just continually trying to increase price at the moment. Steel is kind of on a monthly increase basis; insulation continues to be inflationary; lumber continues to be inflationary although it seems to be topping out potentially; roofing you know little bit inflationary. So I think that we will basically do what we said we would do. And our view of this quarter is, it's going to look a lot like last quarter from a year-over-year perspective.

Scott M. Deakin -- Vice President, Chief Financial Officer

I would just add Matt. If you look back across a couple of quarters before that, you've got a deflationary environment where pricing actions were being put in place. I think as we've talked about in prior calls, those weren't necessarily taking hold. But in this environment, that's just a completely different context. It takes a little while to turn that ship, but we believe it's headed back toward a more inflationary direction at least in the short term.

Matthew Bouley -- Barclays -- Analyst

Got it. Thanks, Scott. Thanks, J.T. and good luck in Q4.

John C. Turner, Jr. -- President & Chief Executive Officer

Thank you. Appreciate it.

Operator

Our next question comes from the line of Noah Merkousko with Stephens. Please proceed with your questions.

Noah Merkousko -- Stephens Inc. -- Analyst

Hi, thanks for taking my questions. So first, I just wanted to ask, how are the lead times with your suppliers right now? We've been hearing that there have been some shortages for wallboard in some markets, just given the strength in housing. Have you guys seen any of that?

John C. Turner, Jr. -- President & Chief Executive Officer

We have. You know, as the largest player in this space, we tend to be in a better inventory position. As we mentioned, we used our balance sheet intelligently during the quarter to continue to bring inventory into service our customers. We don't have acute problems, but we're certainly in some markets at a level that -- a little lower than we'd like to be and the weather didn't help here this last month in Texas in particular with several of the wallboard manufacturers having to be shut down, the latex issues coming out of Houston for some of the other products, as well as natural gas problems for the Mexican wallboard producer, they pulled their gas out of Texas, so they had some problems too.

So I think that's just going to exacerbate things for a few weeks, but we're getting the wallboard we need, for the most part. We are not running out on a regular basis across multiple locations or anything like that. Steel has a very extended lead time right now. I mean steel is out anywhere from eight to 12 weeks and we've taken that into account. Again we brought inventory up to account for that lead time.

I think that's just going to be more of a difficult environment to operate in as contractors are going to have to be prepared to provide 12 weeks of lead time on special order steel and that's a reflection of the inventory of the manufacturers not being available, the raw material. It's just taking them a long time to get rolled steel. Everything else is [Speech Overlap] everything else is OK. There -- spotty hand to mouth insulation is tight. I think you've heard all the roofing guys talked about roofing being tight. I mean it's tight, but it's not acute at this point.

Noah Merkousko -- Stephens Inc. -- Analyst

Got you. And then a quick follow up here. The other products growth in the quarter was pretty impressive. Just your thoughts going forward there. I know this is a strategic focus for you guys. But should we continue to expect this kind of magnitude? And then maybe, you guys talked about seeing inflation in insulation and lumber and some of those other product. So is -- can you kind of break out the growth there between volume and price?

John C. Turner, Jr. -- President & Chief Executive Officer

I mean we -- because of the complexity of the product category, we don't have it as easily as we would with wallboard or steel or ceilings. But just from a gut check perspective, there is certainly a good percentage of that growth is price. I wouldn't chalk up more than half of it to price for sure, as we continue to drive good volumes.

We're having a lot of success in Canada and we're having a lot of success in the U.S. in insulation and lumber, in particular we have a business called Tool Source Warehouse up underneath our -- we don't talk about it a lot. It's a fantastic supply business. It's doing very well as -- so I feel like we will continue to have good success in other products. Will they be 10% on a daily basis going forward? I don't think we expect that, but we do expect good single-digit growth in that category moving forward.

Noah Merkousko -- Stephens Inc. -- Analyst

Great, it's helpful. And I'll leave it there.

John C. Turner, Jr. -- President & Chief Executive Officer

Thank you.

Operator

Thank you. Our next question is from the line of Dave Manthey with Baird. Please proceed with your questions.

David Manthey -- Robert W. Baird & Co. -- Analyst

Hi, good morning everyone. Just to clarify on the gross margin guidance where you're talking about a similar decline year-over-year. You're talking about the dollars being down a similar percentage year-over-year, you're not talking about percent of sales being down the same amount, are you?

Scott M. Deakin -- Vice President, Chief Financial Officer

No, specifically, we're talking about gross margin. So Dave, if you look at Q3 of this year versus last year, we were down about 90 basis points that order of magnitude on a gross margin basis. So it is in the ballpark of what we're talking about for Q4 as well.

David Manthey -- Robert W. Baird & Co. -- Analyst

Okay. Could you talk a little bit about the drivers there, it seems like you've been pretty steady in a 32.4% to 32.6% range and that would imply sort of a 60 basis point drop off sequentially. Could you talk about what the drivers are that are leading to that kind of outcome?

John C. Turner, Jr. -- President & Chief Executive Officer

Yeah there are two things. Commercial mix versus the residential mix, the residential mix is much stronger, right. So we automatically get a little bit of a downside impact to our gross margins with residential products versus commercial products. And then the price cost dynamics we just talked about and that's just pushing that through.

So as long as we're chasing price increases, which again, we're anticipating a continued inflationary environment during the quarter, similar to what we just experienced. If now, that was to change, then maybe gross margins would be a little bit better. But we do anticipate chasing across our other product category as well as potentially wallboards and steel, in particular. We do anticipate chasing these prices up.

Eventually that stabilizes and we kind of return to what we would expect to be the long-term solid good average that we expect to get out of our gross margins. In the meantime, continuing to keep our costs in check and being sure that we're doing that prudently, so we can continue to deliver a nice bottom line.

Scott M. Deakin -- Vice President, Chief Financial Officer

I think we'd agree with you Dave. If you look at that number relative to a trend. Certainly, it's a tick lower but I continue to guide toward more adjusted EBITDA as the best indication of the profitability for the business because, while there is a little bit of decline in gross margin, we're making up for that in our operating costs and we certainly see that in the kinds of decrementals we're talking about for the fourth quarter and that you saw in the third quarter as well.

David Manthey -- Robert W. Baird & Co. -- Analyst

Right. And that brings me to the next question which is, without giving specific guidance, when you think about fiscal '22 and where those lines intersect, do you think you can get back to somewhat normal contribution margin there or could it be -- could it be actually better in fiscal '22 than usual?

John C. Turner, Jr. -- President & Chief Executive Officer

I guess that's going to depend on the inflationary environment on the product side, right now. I don't think '22, we're going to see a lot of inflation on the cost side of the business. I think we've got that identified and a tremendous amount of work and focus on that part of the business by all of our team.

So if the inflationary environment on the cost side of what we're buying was to level off, then could we be better than our previous 10% to 15% we were kind of delivering from an incremental perspective on sales? We could be a little bit better for a period of time than that. But at the moment we're viewing next quarter out and given that 10% to 20% range.

David Manthey -- Robert W. Baird & Co. -- Analyst

Got it. Okay, thank you very much.

Scott M. Deakin -- Vice President, Chief Financial Officer

Thank you.

Operator

Our next question is from the line of Steven Ramsey with Thompson Research Group. Please proceed with your questions.

Steven Ramsey -- Thompson Research Group -- Analyst

Hi, good morning. Maybe just to start with, you mentioned weather in Texas impact disrupting the supply chain, can you maybe talk to, if there is some level of meaningful incremental demand coming from damage there in the coming quarters?

John C. Turner, Jr. -- President & Chief Executive Officer

I think there'll be some. But again, that demand, a lot of that is residential remodel type demand, and we're not -- we don't do as big a business, particularly in Texas in residential remodel as we might in other -- in other parts of the country. But I'm not sure -- it's nothing like the Houston floods, right.

I mean the damage was done and everybody's got some wallboard that has to be replaced in their homes. But it's not entire homes, entire levels of homes, entire warehouses, etc. So it's not going to be an event like we saw down there a few years ago with the hurricane, for sure.

Steven Ramsey -- Thompson Research Group -- Analyst

Okay. And then I want to think about the expansion in Memphis, Nashville MSAs you discussed which is a three hour difference between them, since that's my neck of the woods. Curious to think about how this is maybe a framework for expanding your network when there is meaningful distance between two MSAs, how you can do greenfields and acquisitions and how two distant MSAs can complement each other as you expand? Is this something that you think is a meaningful push for you guys going forward?

John C. Turner, Jr. -- President & Chief Executive Officer

I mean this is right in line and we were not in Memphis at all. It was one of the major MSAs we were not in previously. So we've talked about white space. We would have considered Memphis white space. Atlantic City was also white space for us. So we have that advantage. But when we mentioned Nashville and we talk about Memphis, there is a -- and also back down to Jackson, Mississippi, there is some customer crossover for sure.

And so, customers that we do business with in Nashville did not have the opportunity to do business with us in Memphis and we think we have a differentiated service model and we continue to drive that entrepreneurial culture. And I think customers enjoy that and like to buy from us as a result and being available to them in Memphis is important.

But the reality of the strategic play here is that we just weren't in Memphis, and now we are. So there's not a tremendous amount of, let's say, logistics coordination between Nashville and Memphis. It can be done and we certainly have delivered into Memphis in the past for great customers that needed us to. But I think the bigger -- the bigger news here is we're in a new MSA that we were not in before in a meaningful way.

And we've assumed some locations and some people that are really, really good in our space that existed previously in a previous supplier in that market that for generations had a wonderful brand name and just got into trouble, and we've been able to -- we've been able to get up to speed pretty quickly. So feel great about the Memphis expansion.

Steven Ramsey -- Thompson Research Group -- Analyst

Great, thanks.

John C. Turner, Jr. -- President & Chief Executive Officer

Thank you.

Operator

Our next question is from the line of Mike Dahl with RBC Capital Markets. Please proceed with your questions.

Michael Dahl -- RBC Capital Markets -- Analyst

Good morning. Thanks for taking my questions.

John C. Turner, Jr. -- President & Chief Executive Officer

Sure, Mike.

Michael Dahl -- RBC Capital Markets -- Analyst

Wanted to ask first about non-res and you kind of laid out what are the ranges that are being put out there by some forecasters. But based on what you've been reporting, it doesn't seem immediately clear that there's been any real inflection maybe there has been some stabilization on your non-res or commercial business. I was hoping you could elaborate what you're seeing or hearing from the field. What you're seeing on bidding activity? Anything incremental on project delays or cancellations that will be relevant as we think through and in commercial aside from just obviously you'll come up against some easier comps, but just curious to get some color on incremental changes or anything on the green shoots and that sort of stuff?

John C. Turner, Jr. -- President & Chief Executive Officer

Sure, I mean from a cancellation perspective, I think most of what's going to be canceled has been canceled and that's what we're hearing. There is still some delays. There is still some people not comfortable getting started, not sure what the environment might look like six, 10, 12, 18 months from now and neither are we all that sure.

And obviously as you can tell by the -- when you talk about the AIA consensus, when you have really smart people -- one group of really smart people saying commercial is going to be down 1% and another group of really smart people saying commercial is going to be down 10%, they don't know either.

So I think that what we're seeing is relatively flat bidding [Phonetic] activities. It's kind of in line with the volume and where we are today and the big -- the big gap for us at the moment is this tenant work in short term commercial remodel that's just not happening that I still think that with a light at the end of the tunnel that we know is not the proverbial train when it comes to COVID that we should see some pick up in that environment. We should see some commercial remodel.

And maybe Texas will be an early indicator of that, I don't know, with the market being opened up this week. We'll see how people -- how people are and how comfortable people are with that environment and their willingness to go back out and spend on services versus goods. And I think that's just another indicator we can all look at right. We'll look at services, consumption versus goods; consumption as people move back into that category that will drive a lot of commercial spending.

If overnight hotels were to fill up and office space was to fill up, I think we see a lot of remodel activity kick in. But again, everybody -- nobody's best guess. That's why in the fourth quarter we expect conditions to remain very much like they were in the third.

Michael Dahl -- RBC Capital Markets -- Analyst

Got it. Okay, that's helpful. And that kind of segues into my second question, which is really more specifically about fourth quarter revenue that guide for up low double-digits. That seems fairly strong. And then your comps do get a little bit easier, but they didn't drop off more meaningfully until I think your fiscal 1Q. So it's not a huge difference in comps. It doesn't sound like there is a meaningful near term inflection in the commercial side.

So can you just give us the building blocks for how to get to that low double digits? I know there was a question earlier that asked about price volume, I thought that was other products. But just any sense of kind of the inflationary aspect behind that versus volume, than would be great.

John C. Turner, Jr. -- President & Chief Executive Officer

Yeah, I mean the one thing in that whole comment statement you said that was not correct is, the April declines of last year were very significant because that was the first full month of complete shutdown for COVID. So I think we gave a big -- a number last year, it was a pretty significant number, somewhere around $60 million volume in the quarter in dollars, again it was a rough estimate based on everything that was going on that we lost as a direct result of COVID. We're not -- and now we're in an environment where we're rolling over that and we're looking at our business conditions in the third quarter and how we performed organically in the third quarter.

And the reality is, how we performed organically in the third quarter, plus the acquisition volume that we just acquired up in Canada, great acquisition in Canada by the way, really excited about that one. That inorganic volume in the quarter gets you to low double-digit growth for our business.

Scott M. Deakin -- Vice President, Chief Financial Officer

Plus the inflationary dynamics that are part of the equation as well.

Michael Dahl -- RBC Capital Markets -- Analyst

Okay. So if I'm thinking through like monthly cadence and I was looking at kind of the overall quarter, but it would -- it sounds like it might be something like low-single digit growth in Feb-March, similar to what you're exiting -- you exited 3Q at and then you get back to significant volume in April, is that fair thinking through the monthlies?

John C. Turner, Jr. -- President & Chief Executive Officer

Yeah. Yeah, that's exactly right. And February is, technically, going to be a little challenge. We're going to have to make it up because of the weather that we had across the country in February and particularly in South.

Michael Dahl -- RBC Capital Markets -- Analyst

Okay. Got it, got it. Okay, thanks.

John C. Turner, Jr. -- President & Chief Executive Officer

Thank you.

Operator

Thank you. At this time, we have reached the end of the question-and-answer session. And I'll now turn the call back to Leslie Kratcoski, for closing remarks.

Leslie H. Kratcoski -- Vice President, Investor Relations

As always, thanks for joining us this morning. A replay of the call will be available shortly on gms.com and we certainly appreciate your interest. Good day.

John C. Turner, Jr. -- President & Chief Executive Officer

Goodbye and thank you.

Operator

[Operator Closing Remarks]

Duration: 39 minutes

Call participants:

Leslie H. Kratcoski -- Vice President, Investor Relations

John C. Turner, Jr. -- President & Chief Executive Officer

Scott M. Deakin -- Vice President, Chief Financial Officer

Matthew Bouley -- Barclays -- Analyst

Noah Merkousko -- Stephens Inc. -- Analyst

David Manthey -- Robert W. Baird & Co. -- Analyst

Steven Ramsey -- Thompson Research Group -- Analyst

Michael Dahl -- RBC Capital Markets -- Analyst

More GMS analysis

All earnings call transcripts