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DATE
Monday, Nov. 3, 2025 at 4:30 p.m. ET
CALL PARTICIPANTS
Chief Executive Officer — Bradford Todd Nordholm
President and Chief Operating Officer — Zachary N. Carpenter
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TAKEAWAYS
Net Effective Spread -- $97.8 million net effective spread for Q3 2025, representing a record quarterly figure and attributed to higher average loan balances and a continued shift to higher spread business lines.
Core Earnings -- $49.6 million for the quarter, with year-to-date core earnings reaching $143 million for the nine months ended Q3 2025.
Outstanding Business Volume -- Surpassed $31.1 billion at Q3 2025 quarter-end, driven primarily by $500 million in net new business volume.
Infrastructure Finance Segment -- Business volume increased by $600 million to $11 billion in Q3 2025, with segment growth largely from increased data center and broadband investment and renewable energy project activity.
Renewable Energy Business -- Volume more than doubled year-over-year to $2.3 billion as of Q3 2025, maintaining a multi-year track record of annual doubling.
Broadband Infrastructure Volume -- Doubled year-over-year to $1.3 billion as of Q3 2025, reflecting continued demand for data center buildouts.
Farm and Ranch Loan Portfolio -- Outstanding balances grew by $285 million in Q3 2025, far outpacing scheduled maturities during the period.
Net Provision for Allowance -- $7.4 million net provision for Q3 2025, reflecting increased loss estimates for certain substandard assets, groundwater regulation impacts on select California properties, and general volume growth in ag finance and infrastructure finance lines.
Allowance for Losses -- $37.2 million at quarter-end, equivalent to 12 basis points of total outstanding business volume as of Q3 2025.
Charge-Offs -- $4.4 million related to three loans in Q3 2025; offset by $2.2 million recovery on a previously charged-off permanent planting loan.
Core Capital -- Increased by $131 million to $1.7 billion as of Q3 2025, exceeding the statutory requirement by $723 million or 75%.
Preferred Stock Issuance -- Raised $100 million through Series H preferred stock in August 2025.
Tier 1 Capital Ratio -- Improved to 13.9% from 13.6% last quarter.
Securitization -- Announced work on a second farm transaction for the fourth quarter, highlighting the continuation of the securitization initiative as a strategic capital and growth tool.
Share Repurchases -- Repurchased approximately 30,000 Class C common shares for about $5 million up to quarter-end.
Efficiency Ratio -- Maintained below the long-term strategic target of 30% as of Q3 2025.
Core Return on Equity -- Reported at “a little bit north of” 17% core return on equity.
Asset Quality -- Portfolio quality described as stable, with a modest uptick in ninety-day delinquencies attributed to seasonal payment timing in the Farm and Ranch segment.
Exposure to Interest Rate Changes -- CEO Nordholm stated, “a cut in interest rates by the Fed should have no impact on the net effective spread here,” citing liability management and match funding strategy.
Operating Expenses -- Increased due to higher headcount, technology investment, and transaction-related legal costs, primarily to support elevated business volumes in higher spread lines.
Renewable Energy Investment Tax Credits -- Purchased $24.2 million of renewable energy investment tax credits in Q3 2025, providing a $1.5 million benefit to quarterly core earnings.
Leadership Transition -- CEO Nordholm will retire in March 2027, with President and COO Carpenter named as successor.
SUMMARY
Federal Agricultural Mortgage Corporation (AGM 0.34%) reported record net effective spread and core earnings for the quarter, supported by strong business volume growth and effective portfolio diversification, including substantial increases in infrastructure, renewable energy, and broadband segments. Management said the company’s capital position was further strengthened with a successful preferred stock issuance and a sequential improvement in its Tier 1 capital ratio. The quarter’s net provision and charge-offs were described as episodic, linked to specific asset and regulatory factors, with no emerging systemic or sector-wide portfolio credit risks identified. Securitization remains an active strategic focus as the company targets optimized balance sheet management and capital deployment toward higher-margin growth segments.
President and COO Carpenter emphasized business diversification benefits, stating, "This proactive business diversification continues to pay dividends, which we expect to continue going forward and it also has expanded our commitment to rural communities as this liquidity is geographically aligned with our core mission across all our segments."
CEO Nordholm directly addressed market sentiment by attributing recent share price impacts to negative industry headlines, while highlighting commodity price recoveries and balanced portfolio effects.
Company leadership signaled forward growth plans, noting continued share repurchases, ongoing technology and operational investments, and an imminent CFO appointment announcement.
Asked about the outlook for spreads, Nordholm said, “those changes in market interest rates really don't impact us much at all. A couple of basis points here and there.”
Prepayment rates are expected to remain low, attributed to prior refinancing at locked-in low fixed rates in 2020 and 2021, as well as moderate rate outlooks limiting refinancing incentives.
INDUSTRY GLOSSARY
Net Effective Spread (NES): The difference between the yield on earning assets and the cost of funding, adjusted for specific portfolio and transaction mix within the secondary agricultural credit market.
AgVantage: Program or product line within AGM involving securities or facilities backed by agricultural loan pools, often with tighter net spreads due to strong counterparty credit profiles.
CECL: Current Expected Credit Loss, a reserve methodology requiring forward-looking estimation of potential lifetime loan losses and impacts allowance calculations.
Advantage Facilities: Large, often structured lending arrangements or bonds within the agricultural finance segment, referenced in maturity schedules and loan balance dynamics.
Full Conference Call Transcript
Today, I'm joined by our Chief Executive Officer, Brad Nordholm, who will lead our discussion on third quarter 2025 results, and our President and Chief Operating Officer, Zach Carpenter, who will discuss customer and market developments. Select members of our management team will also be joining us for the question and answer period. At this time, I'll turn the call over to CEO, Brad Nordholm. Brad?
Bradford Todd Nordholm: Thank you, Jalpa. Afternoon, everyone, and thank you for joining us. We delivered exceptional third quarter 2025 results, achieving yet another quarter of record net effective spread and core earnings. We surpassed $31 billion in outstanding business volume and strengthened our already robust capital base through a very successful preferred stock issuance, further supporting our long-term growth objectives and providing a buffer against market volatility. Our total portfolio is well diversified by both commodity and geography, and we remain confident in the overall health of our portfolio as evidenced by our continued strong asset quality metrics and, I might add, our day-in, day-out market information we receive from being active in every commodity in every region of the United States.
It's a real advantage. It is the consistency of our growth and financial results over the last few years, and my expectation is that will continue, that has given me the confidence to announce my anticipated retirement in March 2027, and for the board of the Federal Agricultural Mortgage Corporation to name Zach as President and Chief Operating Officer and as my successor upon my retirement. Zach has been instrumental in diversifying our loan portfolio into newer lines of business while extending our reach to more corners of rural America by developing strong strategic partnerships and relationships with both existing and new customers.
I will continue to support Zach as he builds on our trajectory of mission-focused growth, operational resilience, and delivery of consistent financial results. So turning to those results, we ended the quarter with a record net effective spread of $97.8 million and core earnings of $49.6 million. Year to date, net effective spread and core earnings are $281 million and $143 million, respectively, reflecting double-digit year-over-year growth. The growth in spreads was driven by higher average loan balances and the continuing shift to higher spread business, which has been a key driver of the net effective spread increase over the past several years.
Our strategy-driven decision to diversify our loan portfolio into newer lines of business that play to our competitive advantages in intermediate and long-term match-funded and securitized funding, such as renewable energy, broadband infrastructure, and corporate ag finance, have been a key priority. And that diversification is benefiting us through changing market cycles. Also contributing to our net effective spread growth is our effective asset liability management and funding execution. The strengthening of our balance sheet through retained earnings growth and preferred stock issuance supports our balance sheet management strategies, which are fundamental to the resilience of our business model as these strategies enable us to be thoughtful and responsive to changing market conditions.
Also reflected in our core earning results this quarter is the purchase of $24.2 million of renewable energy investment tax credits, resulting in a $1.5 million benefit. We will continue to actively evaluate these types of renewable energy credit opportunities in the next few quarters as we have consistent top marginal corporate tax liability and remain a significant participant in the renewable energy project finance market, again, giving us unique insights and some competitive advantages. Partially offsetting the growth in net effect spread in the third quarter was an increase in operating expenses related to headcount, technology investment, and higher transaction-related legal expenses.
The majority of additions to headcounts were related to resources needed to support increased business volumes, especially in higher spread businesses, as well as new technology and operational efficient project implementation. We maintain our disciplined approach to expense management by proactively monitoring and managing expense growth against income revenue streams. Another way of putting it is our efficiency ratio. We'll continue to assess appropriate investments in our operational and technology platforms resources to support future growth and scalability, our ability to innovate, and drive profitability, while maintaining a disciplined efficiency ratio within our long-term target average of 30%. In terms of credit expense, several factors contributed to the $7.4 million net provision to the total allowance for the quarter.
Specifically, the provision expense this quarter reflects first, an increased loss estimate on certain ag storage and processing of broadband substandard assets. Second, a handful of specific properties affected by groundwater regulation in California. And third, volume growth in both agricultural finance and infrastructure finance lines of business. Offsetting credit expense this quarter was the recovery of $2.2 million primarily related to a single permanent planting loan that was previously charged off in 2025. We also recorded during the quarter a $4.4 million charge off related to three different loans.
As we've mentioned on prior calls, our newer segments which have grown significantly over the last several years, carry different risk weights hence requiring increased provision expense during this period of growth. While generating a significantly higher net effective spread. Our provision expense reflects model-based CECL changes charges and are part of our normal and ordinary course of business. We'll continue to see quarterly adjustments, additions, and releases as our portfolios grow and mature. As of September 30, the total allowance for losses was $37.2 million or 12 basis points of our total outstanding business volume.
We believe that our total portfolio is well diversified by industry, geography, and segments, and that we're well positioned given our strong levels of capital. The fundamentals of our underwriting and risk analytics enable us to continue to effectively navigate the current volatility and uncertainty in the agricultural cycle. While credit losses are inherent in lending, we believe that any losses in the current credit cycle will be moderated by the strength and diversity of our overall portfolio, and our allowances.
From a credit perspective, portfolio quality remains stable during the third quarter despite a modest uptick in ninety-day delinquencies, which reflects the seasonal impact of the July 1 payment date on almost all of our loans in the Farm and Ranch segment, and not any identifiable trend. Despite heightening volatility and market uncertainty, our prudent underwriting approach emphasizing a dual assessment of loan to value and cash flow metrics positions us well to withstand market cycles. To date, we have not seen any significant effects on our portfolio related to political developments, government actions, including the current shutdown, or changes in policy. We'll continue to closely monitor industry and credit conditions as new government policies are implemented.
Our core capital increased by $131 million to $1.7 billion as of September 30, exceeding our statutory requirement by $723 million or 75%. The sequential increase reflects a successful issuance of $100 million of Series H preferred stock in August. The addition of preferred capital, together with our strong earnings improved our Tier one capital ratio to 13.9% this quarter from 13.6% last quarter despite the strong growth in assets. The issuance effectively allowed us to strengthen our Tier one capital position and also allowed us to demonstrate strong access to low-cost preferred stock capital.
Looking ahead, we will continue to evaluate all the capital management tools we have available to achieve our goal of optimizing our overall capital position through organic capital generation, and securitization opportunities, especially as we continue to grow our book of business in more accretive segments that will require an incrementally greater amount of capital. Our strong capital position has enabled us to grow and diversify revenue streams, remain resilient in volatile credit environments, and continue to offer competitively priced liquidity to our customers and their borrowers even in challenging times. We're working toward a second farm transaction in the fourth quarter of 2025, which will be similar to the deal earlier this year.
Securitization program remains an important strategic initiative for us as it allows us to enhance and optimize the balance sheet by efficient deployment of capital, and also enable our growth strategy by targeting new asset opportunities. We're very pleased with the tremendous support we've seen from our stakeholders for this program, and we look forward to exploring alternatives to risk transfer structures, which will allow us to expand our offerings while serving as another source of capital management. Lastly, I'm pleased to share that self to quarter end, we have repurchased approximately 30,000 shares of Class C common stock. A total amount of about $5 million.
We have several tools we leverage to return capital to shareholders include dividends and buybacks, ensuring any action taken is both sustainable and value accretive. This balanced approach allows us to invest in growth, maintain financial resilience, and deliver returns all while remaining agile in a dynamic market environment. So at this time, I'd like to turn the call over to Zach Carpenter, our President and Chief Operating Officer to discuss our customers, and market developments in more detail. With that, thanks, Brad.
Zachary N. Carpenter: I want to first start by expressing my deep gratitude to you and our Board of Directors for their trust and confidence in appointing me as President and Chief Operating Officer of the Federal Agricultural Mortgage Corporation. It is truly an honor to step into this role and to build on an incredible foundation that Brad and the team have established. What makes this moment especially meaningful is the opportunity to lead alongside such an extraordinary team here. Across the organization, I see a shared drive to innovate, serve with purpose, and never settle for average. This passionate mission-focused culture is what gives me tremendous confidence in our future. Our team delivered another solid quarter of outstanding business volume growth.
We achieved $500 million of net new business volume resulting in total outstanding business volume of $31.1 billion as of quarter end. The growth in our portfolio was primarily driven by the infrastructure finance line of business, which grew by $600 million this quarter to $11 billion as of quarter end. Reflecting continued strong interest and investment in data centers, broadband expansion, as well as the construction and completion of renewable energy projects. With the overall need for significant energy generation and transmission for rural America. Serving agriculture businesses and providing liquidity to enhance and enable rural infrastructure are both critical to our mission of driving economic opportunity to rural America.
This proactive business diversification continues to pay dividends, which we expect to continue going forward and it also has expanded our commitment to rural communities as this liquidity is geographically aligned with our core mission across all our segments. Volume in our renewable energy segment more than doubled from the same period last year to $2.3 billion as of quarter end. This segment has doubled every year since its inception and we believe the strength of our near-term pipeline supports its continued growth over the next twelve months.
Despite increased policy uncertainty across the renewable power investment market, we expect to continue participating in renewable energy transactions for both new projects refinancing of existing projects utilizing the same discipline credit standards. In addition to the substantial increase in need for new power generation, the tax credit phase-outs for renewable energy generation projects in HR1 will continue to drive near-term growth in this segment and we believe this will continue over the next twelve months for projects to start construction to meet required milestones to maintain CRAFTS tax incentives. Our broadband infrastructure segment doubled year over year to $1.3 billion as of quarter end compared to $600 million in the same period last year.
The growth primarily reflects the continued demand for data centers. We anticipate increased financing opportunities in this segment for data center build-outs, given the increasing investment in capacity to support AI, cloud storage, and enterprise digitization. Particularly by large hyperscalers. We believe these developments are crucial for rural economic growth and support the historically strong demand for connectivity needs across rural America. Our Power and Utility segment grew $126 million this quarter largely due to the strong loan purchase activity supporting investment needs of rural electric generation, transmission, and distribution cooperatives.
Growing business volume in our infrastructure finance segment remains a top priority and we will continue to focus on strategic investments in these areas to build our expertise and capacity as market opportunities arise. Activity this quarter in our $20.1 billion agricultural finance portfolio reflected strong loan purchase growth in our foundational farm and ranch segment. Offset by scheduled maturities of large advantage facilities or bonds. Our Farm and Ranch loan purchase portfolio grew by $285 million the third quarter, far outpacing scheduled maturities. We believe loan purchase growth will continue into the foreseeable future due to ongoing agricultural economic tightening, in certain sectors reflecting commodity price and input inflationary dynamics.
The potential for increased tariffs and trade policy changes, as well as just general balance sheet management of our community and commercial bank customers. Including liquidity needed for farmland equipment purchases by the ultimate farmer borrower. The Farm and Ranch segment is core to our mission and we remain committed to bringing our customers products and solutions that provide capital and risk management solutions as well as supporting their borrowers' financial needs. While Ag managed securities in both Farm and Ranch and Corporate Ag finance segments face large maturities over the last year due to many of our partners pausing capital deployment to navigate the ongoing market uncertainty, there continues to be strong demand for wholesale finance products and solutions.
For example, prior to quarter end, we successfully closed a new facility with $4.3 billion of borrowing capacity with a large agricultural finance counterparty. Further demonstrating the strength of our relationships and the relative value of our wholesale finance product. We do expect additional fundings on this facility in this fourth quarter. Looking ahead, we will continue to work closely with these counterparties and tactically determine when to refinance maturing securities, or provide incremental financing needs based on current market dynamics as well as the appropriate return on capital thresholds for this product. We remain steadfast in our commitment to deliver a broad spectrum of financial solutions to the agriculture community by working alongside our growing customer base.
Despite this backdrop of broader market uncertainties, stemming from factors such as interest rates, regulatory shifts, and trade policy changes, we are confident in our ability to continue to deliver growth and consistent results. Our total portfolio is well diversified by both commodity and geography, and we remain confident in the overall health of our portfolio as evidenced by our continued strong asset quality metrics. And with that, Brad, I'll turn it back to you.
Bradford Todd Nordholm: Well, thank you, Zach. We delivered yet another record financial result this quarter. While fulfilling several important strategic and revenue objectives. We delivered record core earnings, maintained a stable credit profile, reported a core return on equity of 17%, a little bit north of that actually, and we did that while holding our efficiency ratio below our strategic target of 30%. We are optimistic about the future. And we believe that we will continue to be well positioned to deliver on our multiyear strategy with strong liquidity, and capital levels, a diversified mix of business, a highly effective risk management practice, and most importantly, a talented team of dedicated professionals here at the Federal Agricultural Mortgage Corporation.
I'm going to turn to the Q and A period, but just a quick comment before I do. An update on our CFO search. We have interviewed a number of outstanding candidates with strong qualifications and expertise to be the next CFO. I've been gratified that we are seen as a very desirable employer and career opportunity for many of these qualified people. And I think it's likely that we're going to get to an announcement within this calendar quarter, 2025. And now, operator, I'd like to see if we have any questions from anyone on the line today.
Operator: Thank you. Ladies and gentlemen, we will now begin the question and answer session. You will hear a prompt that your hand has been raised. Should you wish to decline from the polling process, please press the star followed by the two. If you are using a speakerphone, please lift the handset before pressing any keys. One moment please for your first question. Your first question comes from Bose George from KBW. Please go ahead.
Bose Thomas George: Hey, everyone. Good afternoon. And congrats, Zach, and all the best, Brad, for your retirement. In terms of questions, can we just wanted to start with a question on spreads. Can you just talk about the for spreads just given the expectations for mix and you know, and the forward curve, which I guess has the Fed now cutting about three times by next summer.
Bradford Todd Nordholm: Yeah. Thanks, Bose, and nice to have you on today. A couple of comments. I'll let Zach get into the mix of business. That impacts our NES, our net effective Stride, But just I'd like to begin with a reminder that the way we run our liability management and our match funding strategy here at the Federal Agricultural Mortgage Corporation, that a cut in interest rates by the Fed should have no impact on the net effective spread here. We structure our portfolio so that we're neutral to changes in interest rates at the short end or even the long end of the curve.
And so if interest rates go down or interest rates go up, as we have demonstrated quarter in, quarter out for a very long period of time, those changes in market interest rates really don't impact us much at all. A couple of basis points here and there But we are not a bank that immediately benefits from sticky asset pricing and a drop in liability pricing. Ours move in tandem and are structured to remain in tandem. We carefully do upward and downward basis point shocks in funding. And today, as is the case virtually every day, those upward and downward shocks really don't result in a change in profitability in our earnings.
So, Zach, maybe you can add some color to what's driving NES and how the mix of business might impact that going forward.
Zachary N. Carpenter: Yeah, happy to. I think first and foremost, both, we really focus on appropriate risk-adjusted return. As we've evolved and diversified our business model, we are in lines of business that do carry different risks. And as we put capital to work, we want to make sure that we are achieving returns for those new lines of business. A couple moving parts in this quarter, I think, that show the diversification benefit. We continue to see strong, strong growth in infrastructure finance. Two of the strong growth segments are broadband and renewable energy. We continue to see significant fundings in those segments.
Those are market-based deals that do, in many instances, carry more accretive spreads than our core farm and ranch or agricultural finance line of business. And in many instances, these transactions are construction financing. So when you think about a data center, large commitment out that will fund over time. So we have a very strong pipeline of commitments in the broadband space that will fund as constructions take place and we will take advantage of, I would say, more accretive spreads than our other lines of business.
We don't see, as the market evolves in this space, especially over the foreseeable future, significant changes in credit spreads in these sectors, and thus would anticipate as fundings take place relatively stable to accretive spreads in this space. In farm and ranch, there was a slight decrease in spreads and this is typical. I mean this is the seasonal nature of our payment cycle. We have generally more prepayments in the first and third quarter, and that generally creates some nonaccruals as we go through the quarter.
And we had a little drag Farm and Ranch from non-accrual loans that over time will cure and will receive that interest income, but that was the slight decrease in farm and ranch. And then the last component I would say is the investment-grade credit spread market out there is extremely, extremely tight. If you've followed some of the transactions, there's tremendous pricing that these organizations are getting. So we're being prudent, especially in our AgVantage security space to refinance and provide incremental financing when the price makes sense for our capital to go to work.
So in instances where there's very tight credit spreads that may not make sense for us to put capital out the door, we'll look at other segments such as broadband, renewable, and corporate ag that maybe carry a higher credit spread for us for our capital use versus putting capital up towards AgVantage. So again, this goes back to our focus of strong risk-adjusted pricing across all of our segments and making sure that as we put capital to work, we're supporting our mission, but also getting paid for the risks that we're taking.
Bose Thomas George: Okay. Great. That's very helpful. Thanks. And then actually, switching over to credit, you know, as some of the other business lines continue to grow, should a provision around the current level that you reported this quarter and last quarter seem like a reasonable place, or is it still going to be kind of sporadic based on what sort of happened to the portfolio?
Bradford Todd Nordholm: First of all, in terms of context, this provision is tiny compared to other financial institutions. So we're talking about mid-high 7 figure allowance for an organization that had about $50 million of core after-tax earnings for the quarter. So keeping in that context, this is very, very low. You've seen it fluctuate at very low levels for many, many quarters. We go to great lengths to make sure that we uncover and appropriately allowance and value any credits that seem like they're getting in trouble. And what you see reflected in their third quarter reflects everything that we see right now.
As I indicated in my comments earlier, we don't see systemic risk or sector risks where we have a series of loans that are in trouble. It tends to be a little bit more episodic. The closest that I reported in my comments earlier today were a few loans in California that were negatively impacted by changes in water policy in California in an effort to manage subsidence, the actual depletion of groundwater and lowering of elevation of land. And that was a very, very comprehensive review. As of today, don't see anything else on the horizon that would cause the numbers to increase.
But look at, there's very likely to be continuing episodic events and some numbers here and there. Today, we don't see anything that would make us think that number next quarter is going to jump out of that kind of 7 figure range.
Bose Thomas George: Okay. Great. Thank you.
Operator: Next question comes from Bill Ryan from Seaport Global. Please go ahead.
Bill Ryan: Thanks and good afternoon. I also like to extend a congratulations to both of you, Brad and Zach. For the announcement a couple of months ago. Couple of questions. First, kinda starting off in the big picture of things. Obviously, a lot of headlines over the last quarter that's I think has impacted the stock price at least to some degree. Specifically, tariffs and you know, the media has kind of portrayed it as the end of the farmer. It's seems like, when you look out, listen to the news. But, obviously, you portrayed it very differently on the on the call today.
Could you maybe, kinda remind us, like, what are the crops that are, I guess I'd say we know about soybeans, but what are the crops that are being most impacted by tariffs? What are you seeing? And as far as, like, have the market stabilization payments to farmers started? Or is that kind of on the come?
Bradford Todd Nordholm: Yeah. Well, thank you, Bill. And we appreciate the recognition that you made that it's probably some of these headlines in major publications about negative developments in agriculture that have negatively impacted our stock price. We see the same thing. But it's always a little bit more of a nuanced story. Soybean prices in the last two and a half weeks are up 10%. Almond prices were a very large portion of the crop. 50%, are shipped to Asia. You'd think we'd be very negative. In the last year and a half, prices there are up to over $3 a pound from mid dollar a pound. Range eighteen months ago. So yes, there are definitely financial pressures in major crops.
Soybeans corn, and cotton, also wheat. We pay great attention to that. We are very about the farm families. That may be negatively impacted by that. But we have seen these cycles in American agriculture before. The last time was in 2019, 2020. And we believe that through a combination of better balances and supply-demand globally, more stabilization in tariff and export policies, and farmers making prudent decisions based on what they see in front of them. You know, if you ask someone a month ago, we gonna be planting as much many soybeans in The United States in 2026 to twenty five? The answer is a resounding no.
Farmers are very smart and very adaptive and they look at market conditions and adjust accordingly. So we look at what actually happens to our portfolio, which is really kind of a second derivative from what's going on in the countryside. And we haven't seen the kind of impact that may be suggested by the headlines. Going to discretionary payments, what we call market facilitation payments, during the Trump first administration. I think we're expecting to see about $10 billion to $12 billion flow the next couple of weeks. There is discussion about additional payments towards the end of the year. We'll see how that materializes.
And I would note when you think about those headlines, that there are advocacy groups for farmers who are interested in telling a story. That results in greater sentiment, greater support for voluntary payments, from the federal government. And that has been one factor in what has been motivating and capturing a lot of headlines recently.
Zachary N. Carpenter: And Bill, this is Zach. Just one comment as you think about the Federal Agricultural Mortgage Corporation and our unique nature as a national secondary market. But we're not focused on specific regions, and that's important. Right? I mean, there's a lot of negativity on the soybean farmers out there. If you look at dairy, protein, livestock, a significant part of the ag sector is having tremendously strong results tremendously strong export markets. And when you think about us, I've looked at the year-to-date loan purchases in our farm and ranch spaces, over 100 different commodities in practically all 50 states. Covering all of these different ag sectors.
So I think it's important when think about our national diversity that we are diverse. We are executing across all the different ag commodities, and we're seeing a lot of the benefits of the strength of many of those ag borrowers that are seeing record years wanting to buy more land, wanting to buy more equipment, and we're able to support that as well as we have concerns for providing liquidity and solutions for other farmers that may be having a more difficult time.
Bill Ryan: Okay, thanks for the detail on that. And just as a follow-up question, you kinda highlighted farm and ranch. And if I got my numbers in right, the new business volume was up about 38% in the quarter, follows a 28% year-over-year increase. Last quarter, I believe the outstanding balance was up for the first time in like five or six quarters. In terms of outstandings. Are we hitting and you also know there's a higher level of prepayments in the quarter as well. Are we hitting a point that business might begin to accelerate a little bit more just in terms of total outstanding volume?
And a part of that, has the structure of the loans that you're offering changed You know, it's at fixed rate, variable rate, is the mix about the same as it has been in the past?
Zachary N. Carpenter: I mean, that's a tremendous question. I think we've been focused on this for some time now. In a couple different areas. First, yes, we are seeing a significant increase in loan applications, loan approvals, using the Federal Agricultural Mortgage Corporation secondary market. Across the board. As I mentioned earlier, the number of commodities that we've supported this year is over 100. So it's broad-based. And I think that's coming from numerous different avenues. First, yes, there are ag sectors out there that are incredibly strong and wanting to borrow and leverage the opportunities, in the market. We are seeing that. Clearly, some sectors need liquidity to support working capital. Many of these borrowers are underlevered.
They have equity in their land, and it's a key component of getting liquidity to support maybe a tough 2025 harvest, and we're seeing that as well. Interestingly enough, a significant majority of the growth in 2025 has been, new money loans. Meaning a borrower is coming in to find, liquidity for a new land purchase, equipment purchase. So again, kind of going back to Brad's point, we are not seeing that significant stress that people are reading in the environment, in the articles in our portfolio, which gives us, confidence that see continued growth going forward. We anticipate, you know, as rates continue as a must likely come lower, that will also increase loan demand.
In terms of the structure of our loans, we changed our underwriting criteria. We continue to be very consistent on how we look at risk. Upper pricing risk, is that farmers generally go in the lower shore and tomorrow products. Given the pricing between fixed rate mortgage. It changed several years. You can consistently ask component is you know, our customer bank, community commercial bank institutions, need to manage their capital, their loan to the and that is the game if a need to, you know, potentially submit a secondary mark to increase Kenshin and or fish basket for the secondary mark. As we look forward in 2025 new unit to twenty '20 dynamics that is.
Bill Ryan: Okay. Thanks.
Operator: Next question comes from Brendan McCarthy, DOT.
Brendan Michael McCarthy: Great afternoon, and I want to congratulate you Brad, and well, I also wanted to a branch just how prepay and did lately expectation looking ahead.
Zachary N. Carpenter: Repayment. They can't be low. And I'd say the drop in rate in 2021. We don't envision increasing significant just given don't think rates are gonna drop to accelerated levels. I think a key component of that is in the 2020 and 2021, the significant amount of borrower that's in long-term fixed rate mortgages at historically low rates those are those are set for life. There's no way those are gonna be touched or refinanced. So what we're seeing now is a much lower environment for prepayments given the bulk of those refinancings took place.
Coupled with you know, rates may moderate a little bit, but it's not gonna significantly come down to, lower levels to entice refinancing opportunity, which is know, tending to then lower prepayment speeds, as well as farmers are gonna take probably shorter maturity variable rate mortgages to kinda manage the volatility that they experience across their different ag sectors.
Brendan Michael McCarthy: Yeah. That makes sense. And wanted to go to the net effective spread you know, back up to 1.2%, really strong level. I know looking back the past couple of quarters, might have been the expectation that net effective spread would stabilize maybe closer to the mid-teens area But obviously, there's some secular growth trends at play there with the infrastructure finance segment. Just curious if there's anything baked into that net effective spread, 1.2% that might have surprised you or maybe just previous past quarter quarterly movements upwards? Has that come as a surprise at all to you?
Bradford Todd Nordholm: We acknowledge that it's probably a little bit higher than we have commented on over the last year, but so too has been the pace of growth particularly in rural infrastructure, which is amongst the most accretive segments that we have. And so that's really the primary reason. It's a good news story from our standpoint. And I think Zach provided some good commentary and analysis on mix going forward with maybe a little bit of pressure on corporate and AgVantage. But acceleration of the farm and ranch opportunity and continuing very, very strong strength and expectations for rural infrastructure.
Zachary N. Carpenter: Brendan, the only thing I'd comment as well is mix is important here. You know, we've been talking about some of the headwinds we've seen in Farm and Ranch AgVantage. That product by itself is a fairly tight net effective spread margin just given the strength of the counterparties we're lending to. So when you see a lot of that volume mature, especially in this environment with historically low credit spreads, Part of it, we're choosing not to put money out the door because that investment doesn't make sense for us.
So with that, headwind in the maturity space and the significant growth elsewhere, the mix is really rebalancing the NES spread to the higher level of our range than what we'd expect if we saw a lot of AgManage volume.
Brendan Michael McCarthy: Great. That's helpful. And one quick question on the credit side. With the $7.4 million provision in the quarter, specifically as it relates to the $6.8 million provision in Ag Finance, Just looking at the breakdown there, would you say that was more weighted towards just general volume growth or the or the groundwater regulations in California? California you mentioned?
Bradford Todd Nordholm: It was actually a mix of growth that comes through our CECL models. We ground water. And I think we also called out three specific credits that had special allowances. So once again, it was a mix. Characterize it as episodic, and that's really what it was.
Brendan Michael McCarthy: Got it. And then the $4.4 million charge off the three borrowers there, was that I guess, that was probably disclosed. Previously. In a provision. Is that correct? Or
Bradford Todd Nordholm: No. Yeah. No. It's just three small loans. Yeah.
Brendan Michael McCarthy: Got it. That makes sense. And then lastly, just wanted to you know, obviously, comment on the environment. More negative than really what you have disclosed on the earnings call here. Regarding the diversification of your portfolio. But just considering where the share price is and really know, maybe misconception among investors, were you active at all in the share repurchasing program that we discussed last quarter?
Bradford Todd Nordholm: We were. We disclosed a purchase of about 30,000 shares at a price of about $5 million.
Brendan Michael McCarthy: Great. Great. That was fourth quarter. Yeah.
Bradford Todd Nordholm: Understood. Thanks, Brad. Thanks, Zach. That's all for me.
Operator: There are no further questions at this time. I'll now turn the call over to Brad Nordholm. Please continue.
Bradford Todd Nordholm: Great. Well, thank you very much. Once again, we really appreciate taking time out of your day to join us. We're proud of our results. Hope that's very clear. Once again, someone once characterized our results as boring. If record NES 17% ROE, stable credit factors, and efficiency ratio of 30% or boring. I'll take that any day, and I hope you appreciate it too. So thanks for joining us. And again, if you have any questions whatsoever, please with Jalpa. We'll circle up the right team to have a special call with you, talk you through your questions.
And otherwise, we look forward to getting back with you on our regularly scheduled call in February to discuss our fourth quarter and fiscal 2025 results. Good day.
Operator: Ladies and gentlemen, this concludes today's conference call. Thank you for your participation. You may now disconnect.