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DATE
Wednesday, Nov. 5, 2025 at 4:30 p.m. ET
CALL PARTICIPANTS
Chief Executive Officer — Jeremy Andrus
Chief Financial Officer — Joey Hord
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RISKS
Joey Hord reported, "we recorded a $75 million non-cash impairment charge to our goodwill related to a sustained decrease in our stock price and market capitalization."
Net loss widened to $90 million from $20 million compared to fiscal Q3 2024 (period ended Sept. 30, 2024), driven by increased impairment charges and a higher adjusted net loss.
General and administrative expenses decreased, but gross margin declined 360 basis points to 38.7% due to tariffs, and supply chain pressures.
Revenue is projected to decline 8%-11% for fiscal 2025, reflecting strategic exits from unprofitable channels, and persistent top-line pressures.
TAKEAWAYS
Revenue -- $125 million, up 3% year over year, led by growth in grills and consumables despite adverse macro conditions.
Adjusted EBITDA -- Adjusted EBITDA was $14 million, a 12% increase, supported by expense reduction efforts starting to impact profitability.
Gross margin -- 38.7%, a decrease of 360 basis points, primarily reflecting $8 million in tariff costs offset by pricing actions, and supply chain improvements.
Grill revenues -- Increased 2%, with gains in sub-$1,000 price products, and support from resumed direct import fulfillment with major retail partners.
Consumables revenues -- Consumables revenues grew 12% to $25 million, fueled by expanded replenishment, and new distribution, including recent launches at Walmart and large grocery partners.
Accessories revenues -- Declined 4% to $24 million, mainly from lower METER sales, though Traeger branded accessories grew over 20%.
Sales and marketing expense -- Fell by $6 million year over year to $20 million, a 550 basis point improvement as a percentage of sales.
General and administrative expense -- Down $2 million (8%) to $22 million, with a 210 basis point efficiency as a percentage of sales.
Goodwill impairment -- $75 million non-cash charge tied to prolonged stock price and market cap reduction.
Net loss -- $90 million net loss for fiscal Q3 2025, a steep increase from $20 million in fiscal Q3 2024, translating to $0.67 per diluted share from $0.15.
Adjusted net loss -- $22 million ($0.17 per diluted share) versus $7 million ($0.06 per share) for fiscal Q3 2024.
Liquidity -- $167 million in liquidity, and no outstanding borrowings under revolver or receivable facilities, indicating balance sheet stability despite operational losses.
Inventory -- Inventory was $115 million, increased due to higher tariff-related costs compared to $107 million at year-end fiscal 2024.
Tariff mitigation -- Management expects to offset about 80% of $60 million in tariff exposure for fiscal 2025 through supply chain savings, production shifts, and pricing actions.
Cost reduction initiatives -- Project Gravity Phase 1 and Phase 2 targeted for $30 million and $20 million of annualized savings, respectively, totaling $50 million in run-rate efficiencies by 2026.
Channel optimization -- Company will exit the Costco roadshow business, and direct-to-consumer (DTC) sales on Traeger.com, redirecting sales to retail partners, and adopting a distributor-only model in Europe.
Revenue impact from channel exit -- Joey Hord stated, "we are essentially walking away from approximately $60 million of revenue," though some recapture is expected through other channels over the next two years.
2025 guidance reiterated -- Management expects $540 million to $555 million in revenue (down 8%-11%), adjusted EBITDA between $66 million and $73 million, and gross margins in the 40.5%-41.5% range for fiscal 2025.
Direct import resumption -- Retailers resumed direct import fulfillment as tariff mitigation strategies decreased the expense burden per unit.
Promotional activity -- Promotional activity, shared with channel partners, remains a core strategy for driving inventory management and conversion throughout year-end.
Product innovation -- Focus continues on core wood pellet grills innovation, with downstream launches targeting accessible price points while retaining premium brand positioning.
SUMMARY
Management’s implementation of Project Gravity is expected to deliver a $50 million run-rate cost savings target by 2026 through deep channel restructuring and operational efficiency programs. Strategic decisions include exiting direct-to-consumer e-commerce and unprofitable sales channels in both the U.S. and Europe, resulting in a short-term planned revenue loss of approximately $60 million but aiming for improved profitability and cash flow. Significant cost headwinds from tariffs and sustained weakness in the broader grill market led to a substantial non-cash goodwill impairment and the largest quarterly net loss in recent periods, with Traeger (COOK +11.45%) recording a $75 million non-cash goodwill impairment and a net loss of $90 million for fiscal Q3 2025. Operating discipline is visible in sharply reduced spending across sales, marketing, and administrative lines, underpinning improved adjusted EBITDA despite lower gross margins. Management reaffirmed full-year guidance and emphasized the redirection of commercial efforts and investment toward higher-margin, innovation-driven growth pillars for future revenue expansion.
Joey Hord described the distributor shift in Europe as a more cost-effective, and asset-light approach, with the margin tradeoff offset by fixed-cost reductions below the line.
The direct import model with major retail partners was reestablished, reversing a prior pause linked to tariff-related costs.
Jeremy Andrus explained, the near-term focus on Project Gravity is to drive significant savings and efficiencies, this streamlining will serve to optimize our cost structure which will allow for continued focus on our key growth pillars of product, innovation, and brand.
Phase two of Project Gravity, including sunsetting unprofitable SKUs and adopting a full distributor model internationally, is expected to materially shift both revenue recognition timing and cost structure by fiscal 2027.
INDUSTRY GLOSSARY
Direct import fulfillment: A sales arrangement where retailers import products directly from the manufacturer, reducing intermediary costs but exposing both to tariff structures.
DTC (Direct-to-Consumer): Sales model delivering products directly from the company to customers, bypassing retail partners.
SKU (Stock Keeping Unit): A unique identifier for a specific product configuration, often used for inventory and sales tracking.
Project Gravity: Traeger’s internal cost-reduction and efficiency initiative, executed in two phases, targeting $50 million in annualized run-rate savings.
Goodwill impairment: A non-cash accounting charge reflecting write-downs in the value of intangible assets due to declines in market capitalization or business prospects.
Full Conference Call Transcript
Jeremy Andrus, our Chief Executive Officer, and Joey Hord, our Chief Financial Officer. The Safe Harbor provisions of the Private Securities Litigation Reform Act of 1995. These statements are based on current expectations and views of future events, including, but not limited to, statements made regarding our organizational focus, and mitigation efforts to offset the direct impact of tariffs, our Project Gravity initiative and its impact on our business, our outlook as to our anticipated full year 2025. Such statements are subject to risks and uncertainties that could cause actual results to differ materially from those expressed or implied herein.
I encourage you to review our annual report on Form 10 for the year ended 12/31/2024, and our other filings for a discussion of these factors and uncertainties, which are available on the Investor Relations portion of our website. You should not take undue reliance on these forward-looking statements, which we speak to only as of today. We undertake no obligation to update or revise them for any new information. I would like to turn the call over to Jeremy Andrus, Chief Executive Officer of Traeger. Jeremy?
Jeremy Andrus: Thanks, Nicholas. Thank you for joining our third quarter earnings call. I will also discuss our Project Gravity streamlining effort and review our outlook for fiscal 2025 before turning the call over to Joey. This afternoon, we released third quarter results that were ahead of expectations. Highlights include a sales increase of 3% to $125 million driven by growth in our grills and consumables categories. Adjusted EBITDA of $14 million was up 12% over the prior year as our expense reduction initiatives are beginning to flow through the P&L. Third quarter results reflect our management team's focus on navigating a highly dynamic environment.
I am pleased with our ability to grow our revenues and adjusted EBITDA in the face of a challenging backdrop. Our results give us the confidence to reiterate our guidance for the fiscal year. In this environment, preserving profitability and enhancing cash flow is our highest near-term priority. As such, we have made significant progress in executing our tariff mitigation strategies. We continue to believe that we are positioned to offset about 80% of the approximate $60 million in unmitigated tariff exposure in fiscal 2025 utilizing three main strategies that we have previously discussed. First, we are continuing to focus on driving savings and efficiencies in our supply chain, including successful cost reductions.
Further, we are planning for and implementing our strategy to diversify our production away from China. We have had productive discussions with manufacturing partners and remain committed to materially diversifying production out of China by 2026. We currently have plans in place to produce all new grill SKUs going forward in Vietnam and will continue to work towards shifting production on existing lines of product out of China as we move through the balance of this year and into next year. Next, we took price across our assortment to protect profit in the face of higher costs due to tariffs. As we expected in the third quarter, we saw an impact on grill sell-through volumes tied to the pricing increase.
However, elasticity at the consumer level was largely in line with our expectations. The final strategic pillar of our tariff mitigation strategy is cost management. This includes near-term cost savings measures such as a reduction in travel and entertainment expenses and the deferral of nonessential projects, as well as our Project Gravity streamlining initiative. With respect to Project Gravity, I continue to believe this effort will be transformative for our business and a significant driver of long-term value for the company. Last quarter, we discussed the two phases of Project Gravity. Phase one consists of the organizational structure changes we implemented in the second quarter as well as the integration of our meter business into Salt Lake City infrastructure.
In the third quarter, we made significant progress on the meter integration, significantly reducing headcount based in the UK and shifting most of the key functions of the business into our Utah headquarters and Traeger infrastructure. We believe METER's operations are well-positioned to benefit from the significant pool of talent at Traeger. As we look to the future, we believe the integration of METER will reshape its P&L and will unlock the ability to focus on its long-term growth drivers, including the expansion of its retail channel penetration and new product development. Overall, we continue to target Project Gravity Phase one run rate cost savings of $30 million once fully implemented. Turning to phase two of Project Gravity.
The second phase of our transformation effort with a focus on increased efficiency. This strategic review is ongoing of phase two initiatives during the implementation of gravity to help ensure consistency, transparency, and accountability between the executive team and working teams. Today, we are announcing a run rate cost savings target of $20 million identified in connection with Phase two of Project Gravity. These savings are being enabled by channel optimization, supply chain, and manufacturing efficiencies. Phase two savings are incremental to the $30 million of run rate savings tied to GRAVITY Phase one for a cumulative $50 million run rate savings target. We expect to largely implement gravity initiatives by 2026.
One of the largest drivers tied to gravity phase two savings is channel optimization. As we reviewed profitability by channel, geography, and retail customer, it became evident that there is a meaningful opportunity to streamline distribution and exit certain channels which are not accretive to profit on a fully burdened cost basis. We are making several shifts to our distribution footprint which we expect will drive increased efficiency and profitability in the years to come. First, we will be exiting the Costco roadshow business. This program was an early driver of Traeger's brand awareness and growth. However, over time, this business' profitability has been declining given increasing costs including transportation rates and labor.
Costco will remain an important partner to us and we will continue to sell Traeger products through Costco's traditional in-line business. Next, we are planning to shift our traeger.com website to a content and brand storytelling focus and will be exiting the direct-to-consumer commercial aspect of the website after the fourth quarter. Consumers seeking to buy Traeger products on traeger.com will be redirected to our retail partners' websites. Our website is a critical asset and it is the first place where many of our consumers go to conduct research on our grills. However, profitability in this channel is not where we would like it to be.
And we believe that by redirecting consumer traffic to our retail partners' websites, we can retain a meaningful portion of these sales at a higher incremental margin while reducing overhead and complexity tied to our own DTC business. We will also be partnering with our retailers to optimize the digital media and advertising strategy for Traeger online in an effort to drive demand and return on advertising spend for these partners. Not only do we believe this shift will drive efficiency to our business, but we also believe the change will result in a better experience for our consumers, which are currently operating under a direct model.
We believe employing a 100% distributor model in Europe offers a more cost-effective and asset-light approach which will unlock savings going forward while retaining our presence in this key international market by partnering with experienced local distributors. We are also sunsetting certain unprofitable SKUs in the market as part of this shift. In total, these channel optimization initiatives will drive meaningful simplification and cost savings to our business. We expect that these initiatives along with other Phase two strategies will drive $20 million of run rate savings once fully implemented.
And while we anticipate a loss of revenue tied to channel optimization, this aligns to our strategy of transforming into a leaner, more efficient, and more profitable business albeit with a smaller base of revenues in the short term. It is important to note that while the near-term focus on Project Gravity is to drive significant savings and efficiencies, this streamlining will serve to optimize our cost structure which will allow for continued focus on our key growth pillars of product, innovation, and brand. Driving increased household penetration for the Traeger brand remains core to our strategy and we expect the transformation that will occur as a result of Gravity will enable our long-term revenue growth.
Let me now briefly discuss our outlook for fiscal year 2025. Today, we are reiterating our prior guidance of revenues of $540 million to $555 million or down 8% to 11% and adjusted EBITDA of $66 million to $73 million. I am pleased with our ability to reiterate guidance today and we are planning the balance of the year prudently. Now let me briefly touch on some highlights from the third quarter. In terms of our Grill business, we saw 2% growth in revenues versus the prior year. Growth in grills was driven by strong shipments of sub-$1,000 grill units where we continue to see outperformance.
The quarter also benefited from a resumption of direct import fulfillment with our larger retail partners which was mostly paused in the second quarter. Direct import fulfillment allows for an optimization for both Traeger's and our retail partners' supply chains creating value for both parties. Reinstating this process in a heavily tariffed environment demonstrates our resilience and represents a significant win for the team. On the consumables front, we achieved 12% revenue growth in the third quarter. We are pleased with our consumables performance which was driven by positive sell-through of pellets and we continue to see this part of our portfolio as a stable and recurring revenue.
New distribution including our launch into Walmart late last year remains a growth driver for consumables and we are seeing expanded distribution of consumables hitting the shelves across several of our largest grocery partners. In terms of consumables innovation, in August, we launched our first-ever sauce collaboration with our longstanding partner and world-famous pitmaster Matt Pittman of Meat Church Barbecue and also brought back the fan favorite, Meat Church pellets. Both launches have seen a favorable reaction from consumers with the partnership's Holy Cola barbecue sauce quickly becoming one of our top-selling sauces. Last, our accessories business was down 4% driven by a decline in meter revenues. We expect to see continued short-term pressure on meter revenues.
However, we believe that the integration and P&L reshaping strategy in motion through Project Gravity will drive growth and expand profitability in the long term. Notably, Traeger branded accessories demonstrated strong double-digit growth in the third quarter as our significant installed base of grills drove these attachment sales. In summary, the entire Traeger team is highly focused on navigating the current dynamic backdrop and executing against our plan to transform the business and reshape the P&L via our Project Gravity initiatives. I am pleased with the progress we have made thus far with respect to gravity and believe the $50 million in run rate savings targeted thus far will meaningfully unlock significant value for our shareholders.
And with that, I will turn the call over to Joey. Joey?
Joey Hord: Thanks, Jeremy, and good afternoon, everyone. Today, I will walk through our third quarter financial performance and provide some additional context on our results and guidance for fiscal 2025. We are pleased with our third quarter results and our ability to drive growth in both revenues and adjusted EBITDA. These results, with additional efforts we are announcing on Project Gravity, demonstrate our ability to successfully navigate a dynamic environment. As a reminder, enhancing profitability and cash flow in the current environment remains our top priority. Third quarter revenues increased 3% year over year to $125 million. Growth was led by double-digit gains in our consumables business as well as a modest increase in our growth business.
Looking at category performance, growth revenues increased 2% in the third quarter. This was primarily driven by an increase in average selling prices tied to the pricing increase implemented earlier this year as part of our tariff mitigation efforts, which more than offset the decline in unit volumes. Third quarter GROW revenues also benefited from a pacing shift out of the fourth quarter. Consumables revenues grew 12% to $25 million with wood pellets seeing healthy replenishment and distribution gains contributing to growth. Accessories revenues decreased 4% to $24 million due to lower meter sales. We are pleased with our Traeger branded accessories business in the quarter which saw growth in excess of 20%.
Gross profit for the third quarter decreased to $49 million from $52 million in 2024. Gross profit margin for the third quarter contracted 360 basis points year over year to 38.7%, reflecting the impact of tariffs and other supply chain pressures. The reduction in gross margin was driven by tariff costs totaling $8 million and generating 670 basis points of unfavorability. This cost was partially offset by: one, pricing actions worth 170 basis points; two, supply chain efficiencies worth 90 basis points; three, improved pellet margins worth 30 basis points; and four, other margin positives of 20 basis points.
In the third quarter, we showed strong expense with our cost reduction and streamlining efforts beginning to flow through as demonstrated by our ability to drive adjusted EBITDA growth. Sales and marketing expenses declined to $20 million, down $6 million year over year, representing a 550 basis point improvement as a percentage of sales. General and administrative expenses were $22 million, down $2 million or 8% year over year, with a 210 basis point improvement as a percentage of sales. In the third quarter, we recorded a $75 million non-cash impairment charge to our goodwill related to a sustained decrease in our stock price and market capitalization.
As a result of these factors, net loss for the third quarter was $90 million as compared to a net loss of $20 million in 2024. Net loss per diluted share was $0.67 compared to a loss of $0.15 in 2024. Adjusted net loss for the quarter was $22 million or $0.17 per diluted share as compared to $7 million or $0.06 per diluted share in the same period in 2024. Adjusted EBITDA grew to $14 million, up from $12 million in the prior year, demonstrating our ability to drive profitability even in a challenging macro environment.
Looking at the balance sheet, we remained in a solid position with liquidity of $167 million with no outstanding borrowings under our revolver or receivable facilities at the end of the third quarter. Inventory at the quarter end was $115 million, up from $107 million at year-end. Increased inventory costs tied to tariffs represent the majority of the growth versus the prior year. We are comfortable with our inventory position going into the end of the year. As Jeremy spoke to, we continue to make progress on Project Gravity, our comprehensive strategic initiative to drive operational efficiency and long-term profitability.
We previously discussed Phase one actions, including headcount reductions, and the integration of Meter into our headquarters, which are still expected to deliver $30 million in run rate cost savings with approximately $13 million of realized cost savings anticipated in FY 2025. Today, we are announcing an incremental cost savings target tied to Gravity Phase two, of $20 million once fully implemented. The drivers of Phase two savings include channel optimization, supply chain efficiencies, and other general productivity measures. Phase two implementation will occur through the end of fiscal year 2026 and we expect these initiatives to more fully materialize in our results into fiscal 2027.
The strategic review for Project Gravity is ongoing and we will provide further updates as the plan evolves. It is important to note that Project Gravity is a transformation exercise that will drive a meaningful reshaping of our P&L. Gravity initiatives are expected to drive material improvements to our cost structure once fully implemented. The key pillars of Gravity are one, to drive efficiencies and profitability in our business; two, to enhance return on investment; and three, to open up capacity and resources for investment into our highest growth opportunities.
Some of these actions will intentionally reduce our revenue base as we exit unprofitable areas of the business, enabling a smaller but more profitable business and opening up investment capacity to drive our long-term growth. Given year-to-date performance, we are reaffirming our full-year guidance. Revenue is expected to be between $540 million and $555 million or down 8% to 11%. Gross margin is expected to be between 40.5% and 41.5%. For adjusted EBITDA, we are reiterating our guidance of $66 million to $73 million.
We continue to expect Grill revenues to be down high single digits for the year, with expected pressure on unit volumes driven by elasticity following pricing increases taken earlier this year to mitigate tariffs and protect profitability. For consumables, we are expecting growth for the year. In terms of the fourth quarter, recall that we are facing a difficult comparison from the prior year when we had a large load-in of our new Woodridge line. We also benefited from a revenue pacing shift in 2025 which will pressure fourth-quarter revenues. 2025 performance is expected to be in line with our prior review. In closing, I want to thank our team for their dedication.
We are encouraged by our third-quarter performance and remain confident in our ability to navigate the current environment while laying the groundwork for sustainable growth. With that, I will turn the call back to the operator for questions. Operator?
Operator: Thank you. As a reminder, that's star followed by one on your telephone keypad now. Our first question of the day comes from Brian McNamara of Canaccord Genuity. Brian, your line is open. Please go ahead.
Brian McNamara: Hey guys, good afternoon. Thanks for taking the question. So I just wanted to drill in on your decision to kind of exit DTC and kind of redirect Traeger.com traffic to retail partners' websites. Is that certain types of retailers? Just any clarity there would be helpful.
Jeremy Andrus: Yeah. Hi, Brian. Thanks for the question. I would say a couple of things. First of all, in many consumer businesses, the direct channel is the margin monster. That's not the case in our business. Just due to the supply chain, you know, the size and weight of shipments and dropping them on, you know, it's the last mile that's expensive. Frankly, it's the last mile that also suboptimizes the consumer experience. And so as we looked at both the economics, you know, the bandwidth and cost needed to drive that channel, all from technology infrastructure through advertising to acquire customers. And then we looked at the end consumer experience.
It was clear to us that this was not the right channel for us to be driving. And so, as we think about what that will look like, I would say, first of all, we are working with retail partners so that we can offer choice to our end consumers. We are being thoughtful to the consumer experience that they can provide. First of all, ensuring that we can connect into inventory levels, send a transaction to a retailer that they can quickly service and that they can service in a high-quality way.
We will look at capabilities like assembly and delivery, which is clearly a better experience than, you know, the last mile outsourced truck or van sort of dropping off a grilled box on someone's back porch. We think we can with retailers that improve this experience. And so in the process of defining exactly who that will be. And we've got technology selected, and we are confident that this will be an opportunity to continue to drive revenues. But at higher margins and at a better experience to the consumer. You know, we are certainly going to be attentive to ensuring that we drive as much of that revenue there as we can.
We want to make sure that there's minimal breakage in the process. But long term, we really believe in this approach.
Brian McNamara: Great. That's helpful. And then just on, you know, your retail partners' attitudes towards inventories in the current market. We've heard from other players, obviously, smaller price points that, you know, several large retailers kind of are being, you know, tight on inventory, shifting their business from direct import to domestic fulfillment. As you just curious like what are you guys seeing obviously given a much higher price point?
Jeremy Andrus: I would say there have been some meaningful shifts over the last couple of quarters. As the tariff landscape shifted, it did not make sense, for a period of time for retailers to direct import the inventory largely the tariff exposure was so much higher. On the wholesale cost than on our cost of goods. And so a lot of our partners did shift towards a domestic fulfillment model. Fortunately, we have worked very closely with them to implement a first sale process, which is an efficient way to direct import without driving higher aggregate tariff costs. So that's actually one of the things that drove some of the shift into the third quarter.
We were fulfilling domestically some of the revenue shift, I should clarify. We are filling domestically but we have shifted the largest retail partners back to direct import. In terms of their behavior or their point of view around inventory in general, we are not really seeing that change. You know, we are not seeing any change to the allocation of space at retail. To the assortments. And we are not seeing a different strategy with regards to inventory than we were seeing pre-tariffs.
Brian McNamara: Great. And then finally, I'm just curious, it seems like that sub-$1,000 price point, Grill, continues to outperform. Despite three years running now. I'm just curious your thoughts on how that maybe changes or affects your overall pricing strategy? Clearly, you have a premium brand status, but does that change, you know, how you think about things? You know, you launched a relatively upmarket grill earlier this year. Just curious your thoughts there.
Jeremy Andrus: So, you know, we talk a lot about pricing strategy vis-a-vis our brand position. And we continue to believe that Traeger is well-positioned in terms of the product experience, the brand, the perception of the brand to be an accessible premium brand and we believe that will continue. And it will continue in part by how we position it, but also in part by how we think about our product roadmap strategically. What we learned in our consumer research and in our pricing studies is that the lower price points getting to a sharper opening price point expanded the addressable audience for Traeger. I think it does a couple of things.
Number one, it inspires a consumer who is spending closer to the average of a grill in the US, which is around $325 at retail. We are able to migrate them north, a consumer who is probably buying a propane grill before. But has been looking at Traeger's willing to step up a little bit. So we clearly are reaching a new consumer. But I would also say that, you know, when we have reached that consumer and they come into the Traeger community, they start to appreciate the benefits and just the experience of cooking on a Traeger grill, a wood pellet grill, we believe that they stay.
They stay not only to cook with the wood pellets, the accessories, the lifetime value of that consumer is meaningful. But I would say equally importantly, they tend to upgrade later on their second purchase as they become committed to the brand and the solution. So we see it as a strategic opportunity to enhance the size of the market. We do not think it constrains our ability to position the brand or to grow. I do think there's, you know, one of the things that is clearly happening not only expanding the audience of addressable consumers, but this has been a tough consumer environment for high-ticket discretionary durable products.
And I think in light of that, high interest rates, we have seen the consumer shift to lower price points. We think that is a temporary phenomenon, and we continue to position to drive higher ASPs going forward. But we like the strategy of getting a little bit sharper on that opening price point because we do think it brings in an incremental consumer. Thanks very much for the color. I'll pass it on. Thanks, Brian.
Operator: Thank you. Our next question comes from Peter Benedict of Baird. Peter, your line is open. Please go ahead.
Peter Benedict: Hey, guys. Good evening. Thanks for taking the questions. First, I do not know if you could maybe frame the size of the revenue loss you are expecting to occur from the Phase two distribution strategy plan, if that makes sense, just kind of curious if you could frame the size of that for us, maybe the timing on when that might we should expect that to play out. That's my first question.
Joey Hord: Yeah. Hey. Thanks for the call, Peter. I'll take that question. So overall, we are essentially walking away from approximately $60 million of revenue, but we do believe there's going to be a recapture of that revenue in either the channels that they're in, i.e., Costco in line, or the other channels that we operate in. With that said, the timing of this, this is the we're making a shift in January and into February. And then the recapture and the value of this is going to be sequentially within the '26 into '27. These are long this is a structural shift in nature. And we just do not want to overcommit for next year.
At the same time, this is absolutely a value capture of $20 million.
Jeremy Andrus: Let me just add to that, if I may. It was as we step back and think about what are we trying to get done right now, we're seeing an opportunity that I would say was originally driven by tariffs and a need to cut costs so that we could preserve profitability and financial health in the moment. But as we sort of moved into the late second quarter, early third quarter, we were very committed to doing this because we see a long-term benefit for the business. This project gravity is fundamentally a transformation exercise which early innings will drive profit. It will drive cash flow. It will delever our balance sheet.
But ultimately, it does is it streamlines the business it opens up investment capacity so that we can reinvest back in growth. And so to the extent that revenues decline in the near term, we're going to be driving higher profitability, and we're going to create we're going to be creating capacity to make sure that what the consumer cares about, which is a better product experience. It's a better interaction with the brand the recipe content, all of the content. That improves that experience that we can fund these things. That we can fund the experience at retail that a consumer has when they walk in there. You know, it's been an interesting maybe challenging is a better word.
It's been a challenging few years. Coming out of the pandemic. And as we've gone through these budget cycles, and feel like we do not have the investment capacity to adequately fund what we believe is really important to the consumer. We really saw this as an opportunity to shift completely reshape the P&L. And to shift how we go after to shift structurally so that we can really do the right thing for the brand long term. So we're actually really excited about the process that we're going through. There will be some decline in revenue as both Joey and I have said, but it will be really an enabler to medium to longer-term growth.
Peter Benedict: Got it. Now that's helpful perspective. My second question is around maybe you can give us a sense of the margin profile of going to with the distributor model? In Europe, kind of how that compares maybe to what you would see going one day. Just kind of curious what the margin cost on the streamer side of things.
Joey Hord: Yeah. So the margins, when you ship the distributor model, there's obviously an impact on margin overall. And because the third party we're going to work with has to drive a profit or deliver a profit as well. At the same time, if you look below margin, the cost structure that we're taking out of the business is going to make up for more than the margin loss. And so it's, back to what Jeremy said in being smaller but more profitable, this is a perfect example. And then we believe we can serve the consumer in Europe in the same way that we were serving them in a direct model. Just in a much more profitable way.
Peter Benedict: Got it. Makes sense. Last one is just can you maybe expand on the last fifty or response you've seen obviously price up, you saw units come down. Certainly, that was expected. But just I'm curious how that maybe informed your promotional plan for the fourth quarter and into next spring, just kind of an open-ended question there. Thanks.
Joey Hord: Yeah. It's a prudent. So as far as the elasticity and pricing, we took pricing in the low double digits. Generally speaking, we're very happy with the way sell-through is tracking. There is a divergence of above a thousand, below a thousand, in terms of performance. Speaking about promo overall, though, the consumer reacts when we promo. And it's something that we use to think about our inventory management, our profitability in your quarter-quarter management. And so we're going to we're continuing to be committed to promo. Keep in mind as well, promo is funded. We split promo cost with our channel partners. So it's a really great it's a good way to get grills into the hands of consumers.
And we're committed to continuing promo long term.
Peter Benedict: Got it. Thanks. Alright. Good luck. Thanks, guys.
Jeremy Andrus: Thanks, Peter.
Operator: Thank you. Our next question comes from Joe Feldman of Telsey Advisory Group. Joe, your line is open. Please go ahead.
Joe Feldman: Great. Thank you. Hi, guys. Wanted to clarify something. You mentioned that this grill pacing shift that helped the third quarter, but maybe shifts out of the fourth. Can you explain that a little more? Like was that your the end market trying to get ahead of tariffs or and purchasing more goods early or what drove the shift basically?
Joey Hord: Yeah. So very simply put, we had around $8 million pace Q4 into Q3. And it's just generally an organic pacing shift. There was some revenue or growth that we're going to ship at the end of Q3 or sorry. In the beginning of Q4, and they shipped it shipped in Q3. There's not a lot more to it than that. At the same time, we have adjusted Q4 and we are reiterating guidance.
Joe Feldman: Got it. Right. Yeah. No. That's fair. Thank you. And then you know, maybe I know it's maybe a little early for 2026, but you guys had a lot of newness and innovation this year. And I'm wondering how you guys were thinking about next year in terms of lapping that. Obviously, you've got a lot of work ahead with this Project Gravity. And reshaping the P&L, but and so maybe that's going to be the answer. But I was just curious from a product standpoint and a flow to drive the top line, how do you lap Woodridge and Flat Rock launches?
Jeremy Andrus: So thoughts on that, Joe. The first is, you know, we really believe that a good product a good product strategy that has that is consumer-centric, that has innovation in its core, continues. It continues in a very consistent steady fashion. And, you know, we do not think differently in some macroeconomic in one macroeconomic moment versus another, just because two, three years out, we cannot anticipate what that moment will look like. And so of the things that we've really invested in over the last three years is the infrastructure from a team perspective and the process and tools internally that we can predictably and consistently bring new products to market. So that's our intention.
We'll continue to do that. You know, if you look at the strategy that we laid out a few years ago, in introducing products at a premium price point and bringing innovation downstream. You've seen us launch the Timberline XL, which is a $4,000 grill. This year, the year after that, we launched the Ironwood, which had elements of technology that were inspired by the Timberline. And then we saw a similar movement downstream in Woodridge. And so we will continue to do that. The focus will always be on our core wood pellet grill experience. We think that's really what drives our consumer and the community.
And we've done some you know, we've invested in accessories to enable that, to make that experience better. We have done a little bit of work in adjacent categories with the flat rock three-zone and two-zone products. But the wood pellet grill is the center of our universe. And we will continue that process to bring value downstream. And then as is I think, the circle of life and product development will then go back upstream. Launch new innovation, and bring it downstream.
So know, we're going to continue that process and you know, we believe that over time the consumer will see Traeger as the innovator as always being fresh in its portfolio product portfolio and that is an important foundation to our business.
Joe Feldman: Gotcha. Thanks. Good luck with this next quarter, I guess. Thanks.
Joey Hord: Thanks, Joe.
Operator: Thank you. Our next question comes from Peter Keith of Piper Sandler. Peter, your line is open. Please go ahead.
Peter Keith: Hi, thank you. Good afternoon. Jeremy, was wondering if you had an assessment of the overall grill market so far, whether it was Q3 or year to date maybe how the grill industry is trending on a sales basis or unit basis? Are we starting to see some rebound in demand at this point?
Jeremy Andrus: Yeah, Peter. Boy, as we came into 2025, and as we think about the ownership life cycle of a grill and the pull forward demand that happened in the pandemic, we really view this as a category growth year and, we were positioning our investments not just in product, but in channel and in brand to drive growth consistent with what we thought was likely coming. Tariffs definitely shifted the landscape. I think it's, you know, a consumer, goes to buy a grill. And if it's not broken, they see a grill that 10, 15% higher, they will, they will use what they have for another season or so.
So that driver, that moment of a consumer retail we generally believe has been muted just by the tariff environment. We think the market for grills is down slightly. There are a number of factors that we think contribute to that including the higher price points. But the higher interest rates of America, where Americans heavily finance. Their consumer discretionary purchases housing relocations continue to be at all-time lows. But fortunately, as we think about some of these catalysts going forward, we seem to be entering a period of declining interest rates. We think that will be a positive from a house transaction perspective. Certainly from a consumer borrowing perspective.
And the further that we get from the pull forward of the pandemic, the more our conviction grows that we're into a robust replacement cycle. But it hasn't happened this year. The market is slightly down and our share in the market is about flat right now.
Peter Keith: Okay. And then I think right at the end there, you were mentioning another topic I wanted to ask about, which is the sort of elusive replacement cycle. Given you can track Traeger customer usage quite closely, are you seeing any green shoots around replacements from some of those, 2020 or 2021 purchases?
Jeremy Andrus: Yeah. Let me step back and first say, all of the data that we see on consumer engagement is robust. I think that's we see that in the Cook data. That we get from our connected grills. We also see it in the consumables business, which grew in the third quarter both on a revenue and a sell-through basis. But I wouldn't say that we are seeing, data suggesting the pandemic buyer is rebinding at this point in time. You know, the word you that you use is elusive. It is elusive.
We've done the math a hundred different ways, and we would have expected that absent some of the macro headwinds that have come that this year we would have entered a sort of two to three-year period of higher demand just based on the pandemic. Consumer rebinding. The one thing that I'll say that, you know, we view as a positive in our business is you know, as we look at the market down, we're holding share on what I would consider to be relatively low demand creation investment. And in fact, we've actually seen our unaided brand awareness increase.
We do a semi-annual contract at a semi-annual unaided brand awareness survey, and we saw that increase by about a hundred basis points. Over the prior six months. So we continue to feel bullish on our brand position. On the products that we're bringing to market. And boy, elusive replacement cycle is coming. And so on balance, we look at the next two to three years and say, we like our position, we like the market, and we feel like this project gravity is really positioning us not only to drive greater profitability, but to invest back strategically in the areas that will help us take advantage of this replacement cycle when it comes.
Peter Keith: Okay. Maybe lastly, just with advertising, it's good to hear the unaided brand awareness is going up. But do you feel like your advertising is somewhat constrained today? And interesting on the discontinuation of the Costco roadshow, which in itself is a big marketing vehicle. Would you look to maybe some cost savings, but also reallocate those dollars to other perhaps more effective, media streams?
Joey Hord: Yeah. I can take that one. The underpinning of Project Gravity is really what you're speaking about is unlocking it's really thriving in a tariff environment. And we didn't want tariffs to suffocate the business just financially. So unlocking investment capacity, reinvesting, and that's going to be that's something we're starting to think about as we exit '25 into '26. So the short answer is yes.
Jeremy Andrus: And let me just add specifically on Costco roadshow, you mentioned it. I think that's a really good example of how we're stepping back and really assessing why we do what we do, how we do it, you know, what the most profitable scalable way to run this business is and the Costco roadshow, I think, is it's a great example of a program that's been great for our business. You know, we're more than a decade, doing Costco roadshows. And it was, it was profitable. Supply chain costs increased. T&E costs increased, labor costs increased. It was neutral. And then we started to think about you know, just the cost or the value of the impressions that we gained.
And, you know, I would say that the tariffs were the last sort of the last piece of economics that really made it not work anymore. With that said, it's been foundational. We now get an opportunity to redirect or redeploy the savings from that program and to more scalable ways to drive awareness and conversion. So you know, I'm actually really proud of the team for digging deep and deeply assessing elements of our business that were important and that have been sacred but being willing to really think about what is the better way to drive the going forward.
Peter Keith: Okay. That's a great summary. Thank you very much.
Jeremy Andrus: Thanks, Peter.
Operator: Thank you. This time, we have no further questions. So therefore, this concludes today's call. Thank you for joining. You may now disconnect your lines.