Logo of jester cap with thought bubble.

Image source: The Motley Fool.

DATE

Thursday, March 5, 2026 at 4:30 p.m. ET

CALL PARTICIPANTS

  • Chief Executive Officer — Patrick R. Gruber
  • President — Paul D. Bloom
  • Chief Financial Officer — Oluwagbemileke Agiri
  • Chief Operating Officer — Christopher M. Ryan
  • Vice President of Finance and Strategy — Eric Frey

TAKEAWAYS

  • Revenue -- $161 million for the full year, marking an 849% increase over the prior year.
  • Adjusted EBITDA -- $16 million non-GAAP for the full year, with positive adjusted EBITDA for three consecutive quarters, and nearly $8 million in the fourth quarter.
  • Operating Cash Flow -- $20 million generated during the year, turning positive in the fourth quarter.
  • Net Operating Loss -- $20 million loss from operations for the year, representing a $71 million decrease in losses versus the prior year.
  • Cash and Equivalents -- $117 million at year-end, up $9 million from the previous quarter; full restricted cash released after the February 2026 debt consolidation.
  • Ethanol Production -- Gevo North Dakota achieved a record 69 million gallons produced in 2025, exceeding nameplate capacity.
  • Carbon Capture and Credits -- 173,000 metric tons of CO2 sequestered; 30,000 tons of carbon dioxide removal credits (CDRs) inventoried by year-end.
  • Production Tax Credits -- $52 million of tax credits sold in 2025 with $41 million of proceeds received and the balance due in 2026; credits booked as a reduction to cost of goods sold.
  • 45Z Tax Credit Impact -- CFO Agiri said, “our CI score is…going to reduce…by pretty much 6%-7% CI points” in 2026, resulting in an incremental $0.10 per gallon in credits at the projected 67 million gallon production level.
  • Gevo North Dakota Expansion -- Approved capital plan to increase ethanol capacity to 75 million gallons per year, targeting returns from early 2027.
  • Cellulosic Ethanol Production -- 2 million gallons produced from corn kernel fiber, adding value with a lower carbon score.
  • RNG Segment -- 45Q guidance changes “have very little to no impact to the 45Q generation for our RNG production or RNG asset at this time,” per CFO Agiri.
  • ATJ 30 Growth Platform -- Once operational, Project North Star is expected to deliver $150 million in adjusted EBITDA per year from fuels, carbon, and co-products.
  • Capital Expenditure Outlook -- $26 million of capital deployment planned for 2026 to support organic growth and operational improvements.
  • Production and Revenue Guidance -- Management reaffirmed the short-term target of $40 million annualized adjusted EBITDA and neutral to positive operating cash flow for 2026, with an expected run-rate of $10 million adjusted EBITDA per quarter.
  • Carbon Credit Customers -- New buyers include PayPal and Bank of Montreal, and customer base has expanded internationally.
  • CFO Transition -- CEO Gruber confirmed retirement March 31, 2026, with President Bloom assuming CEO role April 1, 2026; Gruber to remain on the board.
  • DOE Loan Guarantee -- Conditional commitment in place from the U.S. Department of Energy’s Office of Energy Dominance Financing for the ATJ 30 project, with management pursuing project-level, non-dilutive funding and exploring additional financing partners.

Need a quote from a Motley Fool analyst? Email [email protected]

RISKS

  • Management noted quarterly revenue variability, stating, “we expect revenue to vary quarter to quarter depending on the market prices of ethanol, RNG, and environmental benefits.”
  • North Dakota expansion and Project North Star are subject to timely execution, as Paul D. Bloom described the schedule as “aggressive” and returns are anticipated by early 2027.
  • ATJ 30 final investment decision (FID) remains dependent on DOE loan timing and additional financing, with CEO Bloom confirming the need for further extension discussions.
  • Low-carbon fuel market pricing remains uncertain, with Paul D. Bloom observing “California be down even as low as $50 per ton, which is not very attractive, especially if we have this optionality.”

SUMMARY

Gevo (GEVO +5.65%) achieved substantial revenue growth, strong operational execution, and positive operating cash flow as a result of strategic asset acquisition and integration. Innovative carbon monetization and scalable business models have enabled the company to build significant CDR inventories, attract new corporate customers, and create optionality in carbon and fuel markets. Capital allocation is focused on expanding North Dakota capacity, optimizing tax credit capture, and de-risking the balance sheet for transformational projects such as ATJ 30.

  • Management articulated a shift to a franchise and capital-light model, emphasizing their proprietary platform is being licensed to external ethanol producers through new agreements and partnerships.
  • Gevo described a detailed blueprint for enablement of additional low-carbon ethanol sites by leveraging its carbon capture, storage, and traceability services.
  • High customer activity and strategic alliances position Project North Star and Verity to underpin future commercial scale-up and cross-segment value creation.
  • Organic growth investments and strong operational foundation at Gevo North Dakota provide increased confidence in bridging to the next phase of expansion.
  • Management outlined dynamic carbon credit market pricing, stating, “a range in the voluntary markets anywhere from $100 to $300 per ton for those voluntary,” and indicated competition from compliance markets is increasing.

INDUSTRY GLOSSARY

  • ATJ 30: Alcohol-to-jet fuel production platform targeting 30 million gallons per year capacity.
  • CDR: Carbon dioxide removal credit, a tradable instrument for verified metric tons of CO2 removed from the atmosphere and stored.
  • CCS: Carbon capture and sequestration, an industrial process where CO2 is captured from operations and securely stored underground.
  • CI Score: Carbon intensity score, a metric measuring lifecycle greenhouse gas emissions per unit of fuel product.
  • FID: Final investment decision; the stage when an energy or industrial project receives full funding approval.
  • 45Z: Section 45Z Clean Fuel Production Tax Credit, a U.S. federal tax incentive for qualifying production of clean fuels based on carbon intensity.
  • LCFS: Low Carbon Fuel Standard, a market-based policy to reduce transportation fuel greenhouse gas emissions.
  • Verity: Gevo’s proprietary carbon and feedstock traceability software platform for compliance and value monetization.

Full Conference Call Transcript

Eric Frey: Good afternoon, everyone, and thank you for joining us on today's call to discuss Gevo, Inc.'s fourth quarter and full year 2025 results. I'm Eric Frey, Vice President of Finance and Strategy at Gevo, Inc. With me today, we have Patrick R. Gruber, our Chief Executive Officer; Paul D. Bloom, our President; Oluwagbemileke Agiri, our Chief Financial Officer; and Christopher M. Ryan, our Chief Operating Officer. Earlier today, we issued a press release that outlines our fourth quarter and full year 2025 results and some of the topics we plan to discuss, as well as a slide presentation that we will discuss on today's call.

Copies of the press release and the slide presentation are available on our website at www.gevo.com. Please be advised that our remarks today, including answers to your questions, contain forward-looking statements within the meaning of the Private Securities Litigation Reform Act. These forward-looking statements are subject to risks and uncertainties that could cause actual results to be materially different from those currently anticipated. Those statements include projections about the timing, development, engineering, financing, and construction of our alcohol-to-jet project; our future carbon credit sales; our Gevo, Inc. North Dakota and RNG plants; and other activities described in our filings with the Securities and Exchange Commission, which are incorporated by reference. We disclaim any obligation to update these forward-looking statements.

In addition, we may provide certain non-GAAP financial information on this call. The relevant definitions and GAAP reconciliations may be found in our earnings release, which can be found on our website at www.gevo.com in the Investor Relations section. Following the prepared remarks, we will open the call for questions. I would like to remind everyone that this conference call is open to the media and we are providing a simultaneous webcast to the public. A replay of this call and other past events will be available via the company's Investor Relations page at www.gevo.com. I will now turn the call over to the CEO of Gevo, Inc., Patrick R. Gruber. Pat?

Patrick R. Gruber: Thanks, Eric. What a year. Successfully acquiring and integrating our North Dakota ethanol and carbon capture assets has transformed our adjusted EBITDA and has enabled us to learn to capture value from carbon, treating it as an important co-product in addition to the ethanol, animal feed, and oil that we produce. Gevo, Inc. North Dakota has performed superbly well. It is the well-run operations combined with our learnings on how to capture value from carbon dioxide that have allowed us to turn positive on operating cash flow in the fourth quarter. We also now have three quarters in a row of positive non-GAAP adjusted EBITDA. I am very pleased with the progress and what we are learning.

Great operating results combined with consolidating our debt in early 2026 have strengthened our balance sheet and increased our cash on the balance sheet without tapping into equity markets. We also continue to make progress on our ATJ-30 plant, the jet fuel project that is targeted for our North Dakota site. I believe Gevo, Inc. is in a really good place. I make this point because you probably all recall that I am retiring as CEO on March 31. Paul Bloom, who has been with us five years now, will assume the role of CEO on April 1. He has been instrumental in helping us build the business platform to where it is today.

He also knows technology and processing, operations, market development, and business. I am convinced he is the right person to take over. I think he will be a really strong CEO, and I am excited for him to take the helm. Paul, it is your show today.

Paul D. Bloom: Thanks, Pat. To begin, I am extremely honored to be taking on the role of CEO starting April 1. Pat has led the company for nearly two decades, guiding Gevo, Inc. through some incredible times and put us in a great spot with our current business that sets the stage for future growth. From developing our intellectual property portfolio to shaping Gevo, Inc.'s business from field to flight, Pat has been a visionary leader for renewable fuels and chemicals. I am happy to announce that after Pat's retirement, he will continue to serve on Gevo, Inc.'s Board of Directors and the company will continue to benefit from his expertise and insights. Thank you, Pat.

Now I am pleased to highlight some of the progress we made in Q4 and in our full year for 2025. 2025 was truly a transformational year for Gevo, Inc. The successful acquisition and integration of the Red Trail Energy assets, now operating as Gevo, Inc. North Dakota, marked a pivotal moment in the company's growth story. I want to express my sincere appreciation for the outstanding people and great community who have welcomed us so warmly. Their partnership and dedication have been essential to our success.

The team did an outstanding job across the board in 2025, delivering record-setting biofuel production, starting up our carbon business, and leading the industry with some of the first large-scale 45Z clean fuel production tax credit sales. All of this was accomplished while substantially advancing our alcohol-to-jet growth platform. Our execution in 2025 led to three consecutive quarters of positive adjusted EBITDA, with almost $8 million in adjusted EBITDA in Q4, as we continue to make solid progress on our goal of reaching $40 million in adjusted EBITDA on an annualized basis from our current asset base. Oluwagbemileke will give more color when he highlights our financial results.

Gevo, Inc.'s operations team exceeded the nameplate capacity of our ethanol production facility, reporting a record of about 69 million gallons of ethanol produced during the full 12-month period of 2025 while capturing 173,000 metric tons of carbon dioxide. To further build on these strong results, I am happy to announce that we have approved our capital plan for Gevo, Inc. North Dakota to expand capacity to 75 million gallons per year, produce more co-products, improve energy efficiency, capture more carbon dioxide, and invest in our operational reliability. We are reinvesting in Gevo, Inc. North Dakota to grow our base business, improve our returns, while we set the table for alcohol-to-jet.

We have an aggressive timeline to deliver these projects and anticipate they will be starting to deliver returns in early 2027. Chris will say more on this during his operations update. During 2025, we also started up our carbon business. The team has done extremely well developing the business from scratch, and we believe we are the first biofuel producer to develop and operate this business model. We believe our flexibility to sell carbon value either with our fuel products or separately in the voluntary carbon market provides a distinct advantage for optimizing returns and will apply to our ATJ growth platform in the future.

In Q4, about 80% of our carbon benefits remained attached to ethanol gallons sold into low-carbon fuel markets, and we built our inventory to roughly 30,000 tons of carbon dioxide removal credits, or CDRs, by the quarter's end to meet future demand from spot and contract sales. Our customer base for CDR credits continues to grow beyond those previously reported, such as Nasdaq, and now includes companies like PayPal, Bank of Montreal, and additional international clients. As the market develops, we are confident that Gevo, Inc. is well positioned to produce, certify, and supply high-integrity carbon credits that can help supply the growing market demand. In addition, Gevo, Inc. retired carbon credits from Gevo, Inc.

North Dakota to offset substantially all our own air travel in 2025. At Gevo, Inc., we are committed to leading by example. We do not just talk about our values. We put them into action by utilizing our own products and solutions. Turning to our growth platform, let me comment on ATJ 30, which stands for alcohol-to-jet at 30 million gallons per year in North Dakota. We refer to this as Project North Star. As we have mentioned before, we anticipate that by adding Project North Star, once constructed, we could deliver $150 million in adjusted EBITDA per year from the fuels, carbon value, and co-products.

From there, we believe we can enable and create a franchise approach to deploying synthetic aviation fuel globally. But first, we need to build serial number one and demonstrate the value proposition monetizing our commodities and carbon. Project North Star is designed to be a modular build that we can copy, edit, paste to meet the growing global demand for synthetic aviation fuel. North Star lays the groundwork for building out a franchise, that is, deploying many similar plants either with our own capital or through partnerships to meet the growing global demand for jet fuel as the world flies more, not less.

We are developing the playbook containing Gevo, Inc.'s intellectual property and business system, which can be effectively replicated and implemented on a global scale. The work we are doing at Gevo, Inc. North Dakota and with Verity is critical and provides the blueprint for what needs to happen at more ethanol plants in the future. Low-carbon ethanol is the feedstock for our synthetic aviation fuel. We need more of it, and we can help enable it. In fact, we have started to sign letters of intent with third-party ethanol producers to bring Gevo, Inc.'s carbon business and Verity capabilities to other locations along with carbon management services.

We believe our collaboration with Frontier Infrastructure Holdings and the options we are exploring to transport and store third-party carbon dioxide at Gevo, Inc. North Dakota may enable more low-carbon ethanol facilities to be viable sites for additional ATJ plants. As we started to show at Gevo, Inc. North Dakota, there is money to be made in setting the table with low-carbon ethanol today, and potentially a lot more with ATJ additions in the future. We currently believe that this will take the form of us delivering and getting paid for our technology, business system, and know-how. It could give us more flexibility between investing our own capital and more of a capital-light type growth model—the franchise model.

While we are very optimistic about this growth, we will continue to be laser-focused on getting Project North Star to the finish line. Our goal is to reach FID on the project in 2026. We have a conditional commitment from the U.S. Department of Energy's Office of Energy Dominance Financing, or EDF, for a loan guarantee to finance the construction of an ATJ plant. As previously announced, we are discussing with them using that loan for ATJ 30. EDF is an excellent goal-line partner and a strong option for us, assuming we can get all the details worked out. Our goal is project-level, non-dilutive funding to build 30.

Finally, as part of our growth strategy and what we have learned at Gevo, Inc. North Dakota, we will also stay on the lookout for more acquisitions that are accretive, that strategically fit our platform, and further scale our adjusted EBITDA. It was a transformational 2025 that we are leveraging to make 2026 even better. With that, I will turn it over to Oluwagbemileke.

Oluwagbemileke Agiri: Thanks, Paul. Starting on Slide 4 of our earnings presentation, for the full year 2025, we had revenue of $161 million, a loss from operations of $20 million, non-GAAP adjusted EBITDA of $16 million, a record-setting low-carbon ethanol volume of about 69 million gallons, plus 173,000 metric tons of CCS at our production facility. During 2025, we turned positive on cash flows from operations, generating $20 million during the period. We increased cash, cash equivalents, and restricted cash to $117 million at year-end, which is a $9 million increase versus the third quarter. All of the restricted cash we had at year-end was released after we completed our debt consolidation transaction in February 2026.

Finally, we maintain our strong 2026 outlook, including our previously communicated near-term organic growth target of achieving annualized non-GAAP adjusted EBITDA of about $40 million and a neutral to positive operating cash flow in full year 2026. Turning to Slide 5. Our full year 2025 results showcase a transformative year and highlight how we executed on and integrated our strategic acquisition of Red Trail Energy assets. In comparison to the prior year, revenue during full year 2025 increased by 849%, loss from operations decreased by $71 million, non-GAAP adjusted EBITDA increased by $74 million, and cash flow from operations increased by $44 million.

On Slide 6, we can see the step change and the strong foundation for growth that we have built. The past three quarters have averaged $43 to $45 million in revenue. Going forward, we expect revenue to vary quarter to quarter depending on the market prices of ethanol, RNG, and environmental benefits. However, we expect our adjusted EBITDA drivers to remain resilient and grow in 2026. One of our adjusted EBITDA drivers, which does not depend on the market prices that I just mentioned, is our production tax credits. Last year, we sold $52 million of production tax credits related to Gevo, Inc. North Dakota as we produced ethanol and sequestered carbon.

We received about $41 million of cash proceeds in 2025 and expect the remainder in 2026. As a reminder, we book production tax credits as a reduction to cost of goods sold each quarter. Looking forward to 2026 operating results, we are confident in our execution capabilities and remain focused on achieving our target of approximately $10 million in adjusted EBITDA per quarter in 2026, or roughly $40 million on an annualized basis. We are also now targeting neutral to positive operating cash flow in 2026. With that, I will turn it over to Chris.

Christopher M. Ryan: Thanks, Leke. 2025 was a record operational year. Gevo, Inc. North Dakota recorded 69 million gallons of low-carbon ethanol volume during the full 12-month period and achieved a yield of nearly three gallons per bushel, which is close to the theoretical maximum. Included in that number is approximately 2 million gallons of cellulosic ethanol that was produced from corn kernel fiber. That adds incremental value due to its lower carbon score. Our carbon sequestration system sequestered 173,000 metric tons of CO2, exceeding our previously stated benchmark of 165,000 metric tons. Operationally, the plant is running reliably and efficiently.

Our focus now is on: one, debottlenecking to increase ethanol, CO2, and co-product volumes; two, reducing carbon intensity further; and three, preparing for the fabrication of modules for our ATJ 30 project. We think our debottlenecking and expansion organic growth projects can increase efficiencies, put more money in the pockets of our farmer partners and local communities, drive down our carbon intensity score, optimize our production tax credits, and finally increase ethanol production to as high as 75 million gallons per year, and will raise carbon sequestration to at least 200,000 metric tons a year. Most of these projects have a one- to two-year payback, and the remainder of the projects will improve our operational efficiency and asset life.

In 2026, we plan to deploy about $26 million of capital, which further positions us to achieve stronger operating results starting next year. In addition to incremental organic growth, Gevo, Inc. North Dakota provides an exceptional foundation for our ATJ 30 project. We have our own captive low-carbon ethanol feedstock, our own operating CCS, we have rail infrastructure, we have about 500 acres of space, and we have a great operations team. This is why we believe ATJ 30 is the right project for the site and why Project North Star will be a good showcase to pursue Gevo, Inc.'s long-term copy-paste strategy. Back to you, Pat.

Patrick R. Gruber: Thanks, Chris, Paul, and Leke. Well, the company has solid economic footing with a clear path to grow adjusted EBITDA even without building the jet plant, investors should be able to see how the cash flow from our businesses benefits us prior to the ATJ 30 plant coming online in the future. We built a strong foundation from which to grow. I believe the ATJ opportunity is exciting, especially with Project North Star and the franchise approach. It has taken longer than I ever wanted to get to the point where we are today, but here we are. And looking back, what a journey it has been. I am incredibly pleased with where we are and where we are going.

I am most proud of the terrific team we have. I hear from investors and partners all the time how impressed they are with our people. We work to deliver; we are incredibly persistent because we believe in what we are doing with deep conviction. So for me, the timing is right. The team is strong. The balance sheet is looking good. There are what I believe to be great opportunities in front of us. It is time for me to pass the torch to Paul, who I have bet will be a great CEO. And with that, we will take your questions. Operator?

Operator: Certainly. And our first question for today comes from the line of Jeff Grampp from Northland Capital Markets. Your question, please.

Jeff Grampp: Good afternoon, guys. Thanks for the time. Was curious on the CI front. I believe there were some changes in the calculations that kicked in at the start of this year. I was just kind of curious to contextualize those a bit more. Is there any way you guys could share maybe what your CI scores were in the back half of 2025 and how much benefit that could be for you guys looking ahead into this year?

Patrick R. Gruber: I think what we should do is, given the kind of numbers that you are seeing, Leke, why do you not outline that?

Oluwagbemileke Agiri: Yeah. Absolutely. Thanks, Pat. I think high level, so last year, at Gevo, Inc. North Dakota, as you know, we generated and monetized $52 million of tax credits. That was based on a CI score of low double digits last year. With the changes to the guidance and then the 45Z GHG model, how that is going to work in terms of no indirect land-use look, effectively—I think that is what you are referring to—that impact is going to be reflected in the amount of 45Z that we generate for our Gevo, Inc. North Dakota asset in 2026, not necessarily 2025.

And the impact that has on our CI score is it is going to reduce our CI score by pretty much six to seven CI points, and when that happens, we expect to generate an incremental $0.10 per gallon in 2026. That is what we expect to see from our facility in 2026 in terms of 45Z. So based on our projected production of our Gevo, Inc. North Dakota asset in 2026 of 67 million gallons, we are going to be in that threshold of $0.90 per gallon of credit generation in 2026. Changes to the 45Q guidance have very little to no impact to the 45Q generation for our RNG production or RNG asset at this time.

Jeff Grampp: Perfect. I appreciate it. That is exactly what I was looking for. My follow-up is on the ATJ side. I believe that DOE extension that you guys got last year has maybe a couple more months remaining at least on the original extension. Is it fair to assume that something gets figured out with them or another party by that deadline? Do you think additional time may be needed? I know you guys are targeting this year for FID on that. Was not sure if there are other things at play to reach that FID outside of financing. Thanks. Paul?

Paul D. Bloom: Yeah. Sure. Great question, Jeff. We are working—you know, we have been working on this for, you know, a number of years now, three years going on, and we want to get to the finish line with the DOE. We are pretty excited about where we are at and continue to move this forward. But, yeah, when that got extended through mid-April, we will be working with the DOE to reach a decision there on most likely an extra extension, which is what we are looking for. But, you know, we are also working with a number of other parties who we are excited about, who see the value in the ATJ platform. So it is a combination of things.

I will add to this point that the economics look good. One of the interesting things that happened was that, you know, we are having the engagement with the DOE, and they fully support that we want to build that ATJ 30 plant up there in North Dakota rather than the 60 million gallon plant down in South Dakota. You know what? The economics are good. We have low-carbon ethanol. It is a great site. Carbon capture is under our control. We have, you know, half of what we would have had to build in South Dakota already built up there in North Dakota.

And so other parties are interested too, and other people are interested in working with us to finance it, particularly because of this franchise model that I was talking about.

Jeff Grampp: Perfect details. I will turn it back. Thank you, guys, for the time.

Operator: Thank you. And our next question comes from the line of Dushant Aloni from Jefferies. Your question, please.

Dushant Aloni: Hi. Yes, thanks for taking my question. And yes, Pat, it was a pleasure working with you, and Paul, again, congrats on the new role. Thank you. My first question—I know that you kind of talked about that incremental $0.10—maybe could you give a little bit more detail on the path to get to that $40 million in EBITDA bridge? I know you have kind of highlighted that before, but maybe if you could talk a little bit about the timing of it and how we can think about that going forward. Thanks.

Patrick R. Gruber: Paul, that is a question for you, and then you and Leke teaming up on it, I think.

Paul D. Bloom: Yeah. Sure thing, Dushant. I mean, you see what we have done right now. I mean, last quarter, we were kind of at this $20 million in EBITDA run-rate, and with the extra push on the carbon and our good low-carbon fuel sales, we have that coming forward. Now you heard what Leke was saying. Now we cannot get more than kind of this dollar per gallon; that is where we are going to cap out with the 45Z tax credits. So you put those kinds of things together with the existing assets, even before expansion, and we are really looking at how this shapes up to something like around a $10 million kind of average per quarter going forward.

That kind of puts it in perspective. Leke, maybe you can chime in with a few extra details there.

Oluwagbemileke Agiri: Paul, no, I think you captured it. I think the trajectory is we are on track with really just how our EBITDA mix is made up to be tracking exactly as to how we are projecting, which is that $10 million per quarter. We feel very confident. I think 45Z is going to be part of the story, but we also do believe that really the intrinsic EBITDA margin that our assets can generate, also from the carbon monetization that we are doing, means we are on the right track to achieve that goal.

Dushant Aloni: Understood. Thank you. And then my follow-up was, I know you mentioned some talk around potential acquisitions as well. Maybe could you dive a little bit further into that—what kind of assets you are looking for and maybe the timing of those?

Patrick R. Gruber: Yeah. I think I am going to follow up on one other thing about an important point about Gevo, Inc. and Leke and his team. Compared to other companies who talk about 45Z, Leke's team actually brought the money in the door. That is an important distinction, and it should be an important point. It is not a hypothetical. It is a real thing that has been brought in. Now, as far as, you know, looking at are there other Gevo, Inc. North Dakotas that we could apply our skill to and bring value to—Paul, you want to comment on that?

Paul D. Bloom: Yeah. Sure. I mean, look. I think this is what we are learning, Dushant, at Gevo, Inc. North Dakota—that there is a lot of money to be made, you know, kind of setting the table as we think about the ATJ franchise. So as we look for how do we build out that franchise, we are looking for similar things that we have already identified. And it was a good learning for us going from South Dakota to North Dakota. You know, we have on-site CCS and capture. So you have got to have good corn. You have got to have good logistics, right? You have to have all the good things that we are proving that are critical.

And, again, that kind of sets the base for then how do you grow ATJ. And, you know, as we look through this and we talk to others, we know there are not that many of these different assets out there, but we are going to keep our eye on that because I would sure like to have another Gevo, Inc. North Dakota if it exists. But we are going to just keep watching for that and be opportunistic.

Dushant Aloni: Got it. Thank you.

Operator: Thank you. And our next question comes from the line of Sameer Joshi from H.C. Wainwright. Your question, please.

Sameer Joshi: Hey, good afternoon. Good evening. Thanks for taking my questions. Just sticking to ATJ 30 and the financing thereof, the FID is expected during 2026. Is it dependent on the EDF loan guarantee transferring to this, or is it independent of it?

Paul D. Bloom: Sure, Sameer. Look. I mean, it definitely accelerates things quickly, right? We can get the debt sizing right and move this forward and get the loan completed here. So that is a fast track that we want to try to keep moving forward. But like we said before, we are working with others because we are advancing the engineering along. And if you remember, we did a lot of work in South Dakota. So as we are thinking about how do we fit this project into North Dakota, it is really taking it from that 60 million gallon size that we had there to a 30 million gallon size.

Good news is now we have got two different size designs for our franchise. And then we basically have a little bit less on the capital to go out and get. But it is a combination of looking at what is the debt and the equity that we are going to have and who are the partners to put that together. Either way, we want to get this thing moving because, like Pat was saying before, North Star has just fantastic economics. We think that the returns speak for themselves with potentially up to $150 million in EBITDA from adding the ATJ 30 at Gevo, Inc. North Dakota.

And you have to remember that we are a lot more interesting than we used to be. We are a positive cash flow kind of situation here. And so that makes us a whole lot less risky, and that is not lost on all kinds of people who invest in these types of things, right? There is a good base—same thing we were talking about. Strong base, good economics up there. Everything is under our Gevo, Inc. control, and it is a good situation. So, yeah, there are other options available.

Sameer Joshi: Makes sense. Thanks for that color. It was interesting to see the 2 million gallons of corn fiber cellulosic ethanol being produced. What are the considerations in either increasing that volume in order to get a higher CI score? Can you do 4 million next year or 7 million? Just wanted to understand what the limits or extent is.

Christopher M. Ryan: Sure. So the way we make that corn fiber ethanol is really through the new enzymes that we add, and there is definitely room to optimize things. Absolutely. We will continue to do that. So you might expect incremental increases. At the same time, we are working on getting more ethanol gallons out of the plant, including the capital investment to further debottleneck the plant, and likewise, that will result in more corn fiber ethanol. So it is really in the enzymes.

Patrick R. Gruber: And I think as far as improving the overall economics, we have got several levers we are working on, right? Chris just mentioned the increased production of ethanol. We are producing quite a lot of CO2 right now, capturing more of it and then capturing the additional that comes off as we produce more ethanol. That is awesome. We can optimize co-products, the protein and the corn oil. And, of course, we were just talking about the cellulosic. So there are several levers, and that is why helping debottlenecking up there is important.

Every little bit matters because we really would rather have a buck a gallon on the tax credits, plus it generates more CDRs, and those are valuable in the marketplace. Those are completely separate from those production tax credits. They are not the same at all. So that is an important point. We are increasing the number of products available by increasing how effective we are at capturing the co-products and the ethanol.

Sameer Joshi: Got it. Just one last one. I do not think we discussed Verity in any detail, but are we on track to commercialize that during this year for feedstock traceability and agricultural applications? Just would like to see where it is at.

Paul D. Bloom: Well, Sameer, great question. We are pretty excited. I think we finally got a really good catalyst, and we talked a little bit about the 45Z tax credits. And if you look at what guidance came out from Treasury recently, while it did not perfectly include that ag benefits would be counted, it indicated that ag benefits would likely be part of what is going to be added into 45Z tax credits, which is exactly the kind of carbon accounting and traceability solutions that Verity was designed to actually deliver. So we have been signing up more customers over the past quarter than we ever have before.

So it is a combination of traceability and basically compliance services that you need to simplify. These are a lot of complicated calculations that need to be done. Gevo, Inc. has to do them for ourselves. This is why we created it. We created it as a tool to simplify our lives and make things more accurate and easier to do. That is the same thing that our customers of Verity need. So we are really excited about that, and we are trying to make it more operationally friendly and work with farmers.

You may have seen that we also announced a partnership with Bushel, who has a lot of farm management and grain software that help farmers with their regular business. And so this is how we are now starting to integrate Verity with actual farm business software to make it really an integral part of how people do their business and also do their tracking and traceability that is needed to monetize. So we are pretty excited about that. Thanks for asking the question.

Sameer Joshi: Yeah, sounds really good. Thanks. Thanks, Patrick, for bringing the company so far, and Paul, good luck for the future.

Operator: Thank you. And our next question comes from the line of Derrick Whitfield from Texas Capital. Your question, please.

Derrick Whitfield: Good afternoon, and congrats on a strong year-end. And, Pat and Paul, congrats on your respective updates. And, Pat, hope you can enjoy some well-deserved time off in retirement.

Patrick R. Gruber: Thank you.

Derrick Whitfield: Starting maybe first with the bigger picture—what you guys have accomplished over the last year is quite remarkable as you look at Slide 5. Paul, for you specifically, as you think about this progress that the organization has accomplished and where you would like the organization to be next year at this time, how would you paint the picture of what changes that they need to expect? It could be as simple as emphasizing certain aspects of the business, but just how you think about the business and where you would like to be one year from now.

Paul D. Bloom: Yeah. Sure, Derrick. And, look, it is an exciting time, right? Because we have come so far in this past year and started things. I think the carbon business is one that we are really excited about and we have been working on growing, and it is just getting started. We are selling fuel with carbon or pulling that off separately. And I think the biggest thing that we have learned and the biggest opportunity is just how do we really sell and monetize that carbon. We are starting to see our sales pick up with brand names. Obviously, there is a long way to go because we are just getting started, but really the market is just getting started.

So I think as carbon develops, if you look at some of the stats on the carbon market, about 44 million tons of carbon has been sold in these carbon dioxide removal markets, but only about 2.8% of that has actually been delivered. We are one of the first companies to be producing and delivering carbon credits and have a model where we can basically select between do we sell into low-carbon fuel markets that have good returns, or do we separate that carbon if there is more value to sell into separate markets? So really dialing in that carbon business and improving on it—because we are just getting started—I think is a big deal for us.

And that not only rolls into how we are doing our low-carbon ethanol business; that is exactly the same way we are thinking about the ATJ business as we think about a franchise, because we can sell that fuel with those carbon attributes—it is called a little bit different terminology, scope 1s and scope 3s, when it is sold with the fuel—but we can also separate those off and sell customers those scope 1s and scope 3s separately from that physical fuel. So it is really the same business model, just applied to different commodities.

And as we get good at this—and we have already got essentially half of the output of the carbon sold from ATJ 30 under contracts—I think that is going to be a bigger part of what we do. That is a bigger part of the business that we believe we can bring to others as we franchise this business. We do not have to own all the ethanol assets in the world. We do not have to own all the ATJ plants in the world. We have a business system that we can kind of copy-paste even on that side and help people and get paid for our know-how and our business system as we bring that playbook.

And so this will be the piece we really look at: how capital-intensive do we want to be? Obviously, we love the returns that we are getting from Gevo, Inc. North Dakota, and so it is great to have that asset, and we would love more. But we realize that we have to manage that growth, and how can we do that in an efficient way to balance our capital versus a capital-light strategy, which is where we think that franchise model comes into place. That is a model, too—just thinking about how else we grow. We are a lot about ATJ, but we just licensed our technology to Praj for isobutanol for diesel in India.

And I think this model really applies not only for what we are doing in ATJ and low-carbon ethanol, but it applies for what we can do in renewable chemicals. It applies for what we can do in isobutanol. Just think about that as we bring these business systems forward. That is the picture that we are going to be working on and developing with partners, and we are excited to get this going. And, like we said earlier, we are signing LOIs with other ethanol companies to bring kind of Gevo, Inc.'s know-how and business system to help them and then for us to get paid for it.

Derrick Whitfield: Great. That is a great update. And maybe shifting over to ATJ with my follow-up, one of your industry peers has experienced some challenges with their e-ATJ project over the last year. As we inch closer to your FID, could you speak to how your ATJ 30 project is different from a scale, process, and risk perspective to that other project that I am referring to?

Patrick R. Gruber: I think I can give a perspective, and then Chris and Paul can add. One of the things that we did—we are using known unit operations, proven at full-scale, commercial unit operations. We did not rely on anything new like other people might have done. We did not take something off of a laboratory in a national lab that has never been proven out. We are using unit operations that anyone can go kick the tires on because they come directly from the petrochemical industry. So there is nothing new in that regard. How we put it together, how you lower CI score, how you optimize—that is different. But that is not what makes or breaks it.

Chris, Paul, you guys want to add anything else?

Christopher M. Ryan: Yeah. I will add just a bit, and then Paul can chime in. Pat, I will echo what you just said, which is, yeah, we are using proven technologies. And they are technologies from a proven company that has commercialized many, many things at large scale, including at oil refineries. In fact, the engineering that has been done at the heart of the process is from a company called Axens. But as we design the entire process around it, we only use engineers who have experience working on these things and have the capability of supporting operations once we get operating. So these engineers are not just desktop engineers.

They have actually operated assets, and they have experience starting up plants. And so it is that experience, and like what Pat said—there is no new technology—that gives us a lot of confidence this is going to start up very easily.

Paul D. Bloom: Yeah. I think Chris nailed it. When we talk to a lot of companies in diligence, they figure out, especially on the petroleum side, that they have got these assets already running—not all coupled together in the same order, but individually running in operations that they already are running. So it is one of those kinds of things where we took a proven approach. We know these unit operations work. Yes, they are integrated together a little bit differently, but we have also been working with companies like Praj, and Praj actually just put all these unit operations together in a fully functional integrated pilot plant.

I was actually there and got to open the spigot and jet fuel poured out the other end with ethanol going in one end. So it was great, but I think the combination of using known technologies and really good partners and great engineers who understand this have really put us in a very different spot from that other group that you are mentioning—if I am assuming who it is—and how we are ready to execute. And I will add one more thing: we think about it completely differently. We are trying to do something scalable to really big scale and really low economics. We are not trying to do some one-off specialty thing, and we are not venture-backed.

It is not that kind of a perspective. We are actually trying to solve a real-life problem, deliver jet fuel that is cost-competitive with petroleum. We are going to sell the carbon attributes to go with it. Waste-not strategies—you cannot get there from here. I was just doing some research about this again, where you take waste products—yeah, it drives up the price. We have seen this over and over again. Carbohydrates are a great feedstock. They are abundant and in oversupply across the world. Paul has a great saying that I love—take carbohydrates. Paul, what do you do with them? From the waistline to the airline, I think? Yeah.

We take those carbohydrate calories from the waistline to the airline. Okay, see, one more—high for those—make jet fuel out of—come on. So it is a whole different perspective of scale of what we are trying to do, and that is how we think about it. Super pragmatic. We do not want technology risk. That is why we were able to clear diligence at the DOE. That is why we have been able to clear diligence with our other big partners. It is not a project just to generate vibes. It is to make it real for the long run and win.

Derrick Whitfield: That is a great answer. And maybe one, if I could just follow up on the $40 million run-rate—I think based on what I have heard you guys say, there appears to be some upside with the debottlenecking that has not necessarily been factored into the $10 million per quarter run-rate. And then also, when you think about what is happening in the LCFS markets now and where you are going to place the product, it feels like there might be a little bit of extra upside there because you now have a few more markets competing with one another for those molecules. But, again, any color you can offer on that front would be helpful.

Paul D. Bloom: Yeah. Sure, Derrick. A couple things there. If you look at the LCFS markets first, we are still applying for pathways where we want the pathway with carbon capture. We have got pathways today without carbon capture and sequestration, but we will look at applying. Again, we are in the process of applying for those today, and we have a positive outlook on getting those done. But places like Canada and Canadian CFR, where the credit prices are $2.50 or higher per gallon-equivalent—really nice from a carbon perspective—and that looks positive. We are obviously selling into markets today that have good returns on LCFS markets.

But the other thing that you have to remember is we are also inventorying some CDRs to build inventory to satisfy some of our contracts and spot sales in that market that we think is going to grow later. And as we do that, that is carbon value that we cannot sell into those existing LCFS markets that we are selling into today. So it is a little bit of delayed revenue there. And so what you probably will see is—like Leke was talking about earlier—we will have this kind of push and pull with inventory build on carbon that we sell separately into carbon dioxide removal markets and LCFS markets that have more immediate returns.

And so you will see that balance out, a little back and forth. And then, yeah, I think, of course, as we continue to finish up some energy efficiency projects, we get a lift from additional—or a lower CI score—on 45Z going forward. All those things are going to be adding up to get us to that number.

Derrick Whitfield: Terrific. Great update today, guys.

Operator: Thank you. And our next question comes from the line of Peter Gastreich from Water Tower Research. Your question, please.

Peter Gastreich: Thank you. Congratulations to the team on the results, and thank you for taking my questions. Also, Pat and Paul, many congratulations to you and really wish you both the best during the transition. Just a couple questions. First of all, you were just talking about the CDR inventory and carbon credits. Just curious what you are seeing in terms of pricing in the voluntary CDR market, and what is your outlook there?

Paul D. Bloom: Yeah. Thanks first, Peter, for the congratulations. When you look at the carbon markets, like we said, it is a developing space, so it is hard to peg it at a number. That is why, if you look at our investor presentation, we have got a range. Typically, we have a range in the voluntary markets anywhere from $100 to $300 per ton for those voluntary carbon dioxide removal credits. And, like I said, we are on the top-10 list of the suppliers in that market today. So that is pretty exciting for Gevo, Inc. to move from basically nonexistent there to one of the top 10.

And then when you look at the low-carbon fuel markets, I would have said—even in the investor presentation that is on our website—we have got that pegged a little lower. Typically, we have seen markets like California be down even as low as $50 per ton, which is not very attractive, especially if we have this optionality. But now when you see Canada and Oregon start to really ramp up and get up to these $200 or over $200 numbers, then this is where we have good competition between carbon dioxide removal markets in the voluntary space and the compliance markets with low-carbon fuel.

So we are going to continue to leverage that to our advantage so we can make some decisions and figure out where to place volume, both with our commodity and our carbon value, to give Gevo, Inc. the best returns.

Peter Gastreich: Okay. Great. Thank you. The next question is just about your sequestration capacity. It looks like the Frontier partnership is really going to help accelerate the plans there. I am just curious—first of all, are you able to share what would be a realistic timeline for starting to bring in that third-party CO2? And the second question related to that would be, once you reach a critical mass of volume—I do not know if that is in terms of contracts or whatever—will you have incremental CapEx of any sort, perhaps above ground, that will be required to accept those incremental volumes?

Paul D. Bloom: Yeah. Sure, Peter. I think the Frontier Infrastructure Holdings partnership or collaboration that we have been working on has been really interesting because there was a lot of promise from these pipelines, and obviously we had a pipeline that we thought was going to come to us in South Dakota that did not materialize. We feel that. And so this is exciting to think about CO2 by rail, and I think it comes back to we are going to be producing more fuel and more carbon dioxide co-product and capturing that and capturing more in North Dakota.

But today, we are, for example, only using 16% to 17% of what is called our pore space, which is the available volume for storage. So we have got a lot of extra capacity. Really, our goal is to figure out, as we expand, we make sure we are capturing Gevo, Inc.'s carbon dioxide, but we can help others.

And what we learned working with Frontier is that there are a lot of ethanol companies out there that we can help, and this is where it comes back into this approach where our carbon management services—if we can bring in CO2 by rail and monetize our pore space—this is a big deal for us because we could get paid in things like storage fees. We can help with carbon marketing. We are still in the design phase of this, so we are scoping this out.

I think it is still going to take a while because you have to build basically a terminal to put in place, but that does get pretty exciting if we can connect the dots between the rest of the capacity that we have got. And it does not mean that we have to stop there; we could probably access more capacity in the pore space around us. Pretty good opportunity for us. And if you look in our investor presentation, this is where a lot of the unlock—going beyond that $40 million up to the $110 million in adjusted EBITDA and the carbon value—comes from: how do we monetize this pore space, do we help others with the carbon business?

And that, in turn, the other piece that I will connect the dots on is the more low-carbon ethanol plants we can enable by helping them with carbon management services—whether it is the actual physical removal and storage of that carbon or the digital services like Verity and our carbon business—that sets the table for more sites to be fully enabled and ready to be a site for an alcohol-to-jet plant. So I think that is really the combination and how it fits. It is not just the revenues that we could generate today from that kind of relationship—those are great—but it is really how we enable 10, 15, 20 more sites in the future.

Peter Gastreich: Great. Thanks very much for taking my question.

Operator: Thank you. This does conclude the question-and-answer session of today's program. I would now like to hand the program back to Pat for any further remarks.

Patrick R. Gruber: Well, thank you all. It was a fantastic year. There is a lot of potential. This carbon business is extremely interesting. It gives us the ability to arbitrage and make decisions discreetly about where we can capture the most value. We are the first to do it, and we are breaking a lot of new ground at it, and it is quite interesting. I am really grateful for the team up there at Gevo, Inc. North Dakota. They have done a fantastic job running that plant. Congratulations to all the folks who have done it. Chris, great job.

And it was really a good move for us to acquire that and bring it under our—get that asset under our control—because it solves all kinds of problems. We have low carbon available. Boom. Box checked. That question is answered. Sequestration available. It is a beautiful sequestration site. I do not think we had a full appreciation for how great it actually is compared to the others that are out there. It is outstanding in that we are the only ones in that formation, and it is an outstanding well. And we are learning more and more about why that is so important. You see the results in that. We got certified as a 1,000-year well by peer reviewers.

And I look at the potential of what is going on here, and you see these things that Paul mentioned, like the IBA diesel fuel—who would have thought? We never have quit working on IBA. It is just in the background because you do not need it for jet fuel, but it is good for other stuff, other fuels. Those things are going to happen sometime in the future using partners. Awesome. And so, get the ATJ plant done. You heard Paul talk about it. Gotta get that done. And then do the franchise model.

Already Paul talked about being able to go to other parties or other ethanol companies who want to learn from us, and we have a service we can provide and get paid for. Those are all very interesting things. We are hugely de-risked compared to where we have been. We have a huge amount of intellectual property and a huge amount of growth potential. And so this is, I think, something around my 59th or 60th earnings call—my very last one. I want to thank you all for your investment. Thank you for your questions and for forcing us to sharpen up over the years, especially me. And thank you for all the opportunity to work with you all.

I truly appreciate it, and I wish the team the very, very best. And with that, I sign off. Thank you very much.

Operator: Thank you, and thank you, ladies and gentlemen, for your participation in today's conference. This does conclude the program. You may now disconnect. Good day.