Image source: The Motley Fool.
DATE
Wednesday, May 6, 2026 at 10 a.m. ET
CALL PARTICIPANTS
- Chairman, President and Chief Executive Officer — Martin J. Lyons
- Chairman and President, Ameren Missouri — Lenny Singh
- Chief Financial Officer and Senior Vice President — Andrew Kirk
- Senior Vice President, Corporate Planning — Michael Main
Need a quote from a Motley Fool analyst? Email [email protected]
TAKEAWAYS
- Earnings Per Share -- $1.28 versus $1.07, up $0.21, driven by infrastructure investments across all segments.
- EPS Growth Guidance -- Reaffirmed full-year target of $5.25 to $5.45.
- Infrastructure Investment -- Over $1.5 billion deployed in the quarter to strengthen reliability and resiliency.
- Customer Outage Mitigation -- 4.3 million outage minutes and 43,000 outages avoided in March and late April respectively, through automation and grid upgrades.
- Fuel Savings -- Ameren Illinois gas storage saved customers approximately $63 million during extreme weather events.
- Generation Projects -- The Bowling Green Energy Center (50 MW) began service in March; Split Rail Energy Center (300 MW) began final commissioning; both projects can serve over 63,000 homes combined.
- Natural Gas & Battery Expansion -- Castle Bluff (800 MW) construction underway with turbine delivery ahead of schedule; Big Hollow (800 MW and 400 MW battery storage) site mobilization initiated with construction targeted to begin this quarter.
- Rate Base Growth -- 10.6% compound annual rate base growth expected from 2026 through 2030, supported by targeted capital allocation and sales assumptions.
- Sales Growth Assumption -- Long-term sales CAGR targeted at 6.2% through 2030, with signed Energy Service Agreements (ESAs) representing upside if realized sooner than the current 1.2 GW plan.
- Equity Issuance Plan -- Approximately $1.2 billion of common stock sold forward in 2026 through at-the-market and equity programs, supporting an expected $4 billion total by 2030.
- Credit Ratings -- S&P affirmed BBB+ credit rating with stable outlook in April; Moody’s review pending.
- Customer Assistance -- More than $40 million in customer energy assistance and weatherization resources were distributed during the first quarter through company and public partnerships.
- Transmission Investment Pipeline -- Forecasted pipeline over $70 billion through 2035, addressing new large-load customers and generation connections.
- Regulatory Updates -- Ameren Illinois requested a $65 million revenue adjustment for 2025, with ICC decision expected by December and rates effective January 2027; next Ameren Missouri electric rate review will be filed mid-2026.
- ESAs and Data Center Demand -- 2.2 GW of ESAs signed in Missouri, with additional conversions from 1.2 GW of construction agreements anticipated in the near term; site control for all ESA projects confirmed.
SUMMARY
Ameren Corporation (AEE 2.46%) reported a $0.21 increase in earnings per share and executed more than $1.5 billion in infrastructure investments focused on improving system resilience and reliability while advancing projects in generation and battery storage. Management detailed progress on generation expansion, regulatory filings, and efforts to capture upside from new large-load customers, including signed and prospective ESAs, and signaled imminent groundbreaking for major projects. The company highlighted a robust $70 billion investment pipeline and reaffirmed annual EPS growth guidance, as well as ongoing strategic cost discipline and proactive capital planning for both equity and debt, alongside affirmation of its credit rating.
- Chairman and CEO Lyons said, "We continue to expect that the 2.2 gigawatts of ESAs we signed in February represent upside to our sales and earnings forecast to the extent the sales from the ESAs ramp faster than our existing plan assumption of 1.2 gigawatts by 2030."
- Management indicated that "sites have been secured" for all 2.2 GW ESA projects and expects "groundbreaking and starting to get construction underway" in the near term.
- The Ameren Illinois $65 million revenue reconciliation adjustment request was filed under the annual performance-based rate plan, with a final ICC decision expected by year end.
- New capital projects—including the 2,100 MW West Alton combined cycle facility and additional battery storage—await Certificate of Convenience and Necessity (CCN) filings by the third quarter.
- The company confirmed ongoing evaluation of fuel cells and renewables for incremental dispatchable capacity, recognizing potential flexibility in generation buildout.
- The $70 billion ten-year investment pipeline positions Ameren to address grid modernization, reliability, and large-scale customer load requirements as regional demand trends evolve.
INDUSTRY GLOSSARY
- Energy Service Agreement (ESA): Long-term contractual arrangement under which Ameren supplies electricity to a specific large-load customer, often a data center, at terms negotiated for material new demand.
- Certificate of Convenience and Necessity (CCN): Regulatory approval required before Ameren may construct generation or major infrastructure in regulated jurisdictions.
- Integrated Resource Plan (IRP): A comprehensive, forward-looking plan filed with regulators outlining Ameren’s energy resource strategy, considering demand forecasts, supply options, and regulatory factors over a long-term horizon.
- MISO (Midcontinent Independent System Operator): A regional transmission organization managing electric grid reliability and competitive transmission project bidding across parts of the Midwest including Ameren’s service territory.
Full Conference Call Transcript
Martin J. Lyons: Thanks, Andrew. Good morning, everyone. Thank you for joining us to cover our first quarter performance and progress toward achieving our 2026 strategic objectives. Yesterday, we reported first quarter 2026 earnings of $1.28 per share compared to earnings of $1.07 per share in 2025. The year-over-year increase of $0.21 per share reflected increased infrastructure investments across all operating segments that will drive significant long-term benefits for our customers. The other key drivers of our results are summarized on this slide. Further, we reaffirmed our 2026 earnings per share growth guidance range of $5.25 to $5.45, reflecting solid execution across our business. Turning to page five.
At Ameren Corporation, we remain committed to the customers and communities we are privileged to serve: the 2.5 billion electric and 900,000 natural gas customers who count on us every day. Our infrastructure investment decisions are made with that responsibility in mind, focused on strengthening the system, delivering reliable, cost-effective service, and positioning our communities for long-term growth. Through execution of our three-pillar strategy—investing in rate-regulated infrastructure, advocating for constructive regulatory and legislative frameworks, and optimizing our business—we strive to provide exceptional value for our customers, communities, and shareholders. Turning to page six. Here, we outlined our strategic priorities for 2026, which we provided in February.
To date, we have made meaningful progress, which Lenny and I will discuss as we cover the pages that follow. Of course, key to serving customers well and driving growth are targeted and timely infrastructure investments. As shown on the right, you see that we made more than $1.5 billion of infrastructure investments during the first quarter to maintain and enhance our quality of service. Importantly, our infrastructure investments continue to strengthen the reliability and resiliency of the grid, minimizing customer outages during multiple instances of severe weather during 2026. For example, in January, during the multiday winter storm Fern, Ameren Corporation’s diverse generation fleet performed exceptionally well, ensuring our customers had access to power under extreme conditions.
At the same time, our Ameren Illinois gas storage portfolio helps shield customers from extreme market prices, saving about $63 million, while ongoing upgrades to our underground storage fields continue to lower long-term operating costs and support winter reliability. Then we saw the benefits of our investments again in March, avoiding 4.3 million outage minutes for nearly 20,000 Ameren Missouri customers and again during late April storms, where system automation helped avoid an additional 43,000 customer outages and 12 million outage minutes each over a two-day period, effectively reducing the overall customer impact of these severe weather events by nearly half.
To enhance the performance of our existing generation fleet for summer and winter peak demand periods, and as overall demand grows, we are investing in projects designed to maximize capacity and availability. For example, optimization efforts underway at our Audrain Energy Center will improve winter reliability by adding up to 700 megawatts of capacity on the coldest days. And at our Labadie Energy Center, significant boiler enhancements this year are designed to reduce the number and length of prospective outages. Alongside these enhancements, we continue to execute our Missouri integrated resource plan to add new generation resources.
In total, the work we are doing across our generation fleet is designed to ensure customers can continue to rely on us to operate a safe, diverse, dependable, and cost-effective mix of energy centers today and well into the future. We are mindful that reliability and affordability are both important for customers. That is why we continue to operate with financial discipline and work to optimize our business processes in part through deployment of new tools and technology. In addition, during the first quarter, we helped connect customers with more than $40 million in energy assistance and weatherization resources through Ameren Corporation programs and federal, state, and local partnerships. Turning to page seven.
Looking ahead, we see the opportunity for strong growth, with businesses making significant long-term commitments to locate and expand in our region. Our long-term earnings per share expectations outlined in February were based upon a compounded annual sales growth assumption of 6.2% from 2026 through 2030. We continue to expect that the 2.2 gigawatts of ESAs we signed in February represent upside to our sales and earnings forecast to the extent the sales from the ESAs ramp faster than our existing plan assumption of 1.2 gigawatts by 2030. As we have said, we expect to update our sales forecast for these agreements as other project milestones are achieved including the customer project announcements, groundbreaking, and construction progress.
In addition, we are optimistic about converting a portion of our remaining 1.2 gigawatts of construction agreements to additional ESAs in the near term. We are excited to support these data center projects as their construction is expected to bring in thousands of jobs, and the projects are expected to generate millions of dollars in tax revenue for local communities. In addition, serving these customers will require acceleration of significant infrastructure investments on our part, supporting additional jobs and tax revenue, all paid for by the counterparties to our ESAs.
As new large-load electric demand evolves, our focus remains on serving all customers reliably by carefully planning and executing grid upgrades and maintaining a balanced generation portfolio while ensuring costs to serve new large-load customers are appropriately allocated to and borne by them. Turning to page eight. We are well on our way to delivering the more than five gigawatts of new energy and capacity resources currently planned to go into service through 2030 as our team continues to execute on a robust generation plan. The 50-megawatt Bowling Green Energy Center was placed in service in March, and we recently began final commissioning activities on the second project, the 300-megawatt Split Rail Energy Center.
These projects have the ability to deliver enough combined energy to power more than 63,000 homes. In addition, we continue to advance two 800-megawatt simple-cycle natural gas energy centers, Castle Bluff and Big Hollow, which are expected to begin serving customers in 2027 and 2028, respectively, along with 400 megawatts of battery storage at Big Hollow. For Castle Bluff, construction is underway, and we received the first of four gas turbines ahead of schedule. For Big Hollow, our contractors have begun mobilizing and preparing the site for construction, which is expected to begin this quarter. In the meantime, we continue to pursue approvals required for additional generation resources.
In March, we reached a stipulation and agreement with intervenors for the CCN we are seeking for the Reform Energy Center, a 250-megawatt facility expected to be in service in 2028. This agreement is subject to Missouri PSC approval. Further, we expect to file additional CCN requests by the third quarter for approximately three gigawatts of new generation, primarily including the 2.1-gigawatt West Alton combined cycle facility as well as additional battery storage. At the same time, we continue to carefully analyze future sales expectations and assess the timing and mix of new generation resources in advance of our next Missouri IRP targeted for late September, which will provide an updated 20-year view of our generation strategy.
Moving to page nine for a brief transmission update. We expect significant transmission investment will be needed over time to support new large-load customers and connect the new generation resources required to serve our territory reliably as regional demand grows. We expect these potential investments to be incorporated into our plans as opportunities further mature. At the same time, we remain focused on executing our awarded long-range transmission projects from the first two MISO tranches and on advancing competitive opportunities under tranche 2.1. In January, we submitted bids for two competitive projects based in Illinois, with MISO expected to select developers for the projects by mid-2026. We are also evaluating two additional competitive opportunities with bid submissions due by May.
Turning to page 10, we have outlined the investment pipeline across our businesses over the next decade. These investments will support the safety, reliability, and resiliency of the energy grid while positioning our system to power the quality of life for all customers in our territory. This pipeline stands at more than $70 billion through 2035 and is expected to continue supporting strong growth opportunities for our customers, communities, and shareholders. Turning to page 11, we expect effective execution of our strategy to continue to drive strong total shareholder return.
In February, we updated our five-year growth plan, which included our expectation to deliver annual earnings per share growth consistently near the upper end of our 6% to 8% compound annual earnings growth rate from 2026 through 2030. This earnings growth is primarily driven by strong compound annual rate base growth of 10.6%, reflecting strategic capital allocation across our constructive regulatory frameworks and conservative sales growth assumptions. I am excited by the milestones achieved year to date with new large-load customers and anticipated additional positive developments in 2026.
Over the course of the year, as we get greater clarity on the timing and amount of these new customers’ service ramp-up, we will update our sales growth assumptions and incorporate them into our updated Missouri integrated resource plan as well as incorporate any additional transmission investment needed into our five-year plan. Last, I am confident in our team’s ability to effectively execute our investment plans and other elements of our strategy across all four of our business segments in a way that benefits our customers, shareholders, and communities. Again, thank you all for joining us today. I will now turn the call over to Lenny.
Lenny Singh: Thanks, Marty. Good morning, everyone. Turning now to page 13 of our presentation. Yesterday, we reported first quarter 2026 earnings of $1.28 per share, compared to earnings of $1.07 per share for 2025. As Marty discussed, our ongoing infrastructure investments to strengthen the energy grid and expand generation resources continue to be the primary drivers of earnings growth across the company. Partially offsetting the benefits of these investments, Ameren Missouri’s first-quarter electric retail sales in 2026 were negatively impacted by warmer-than-normal winter temperatures in the current period compared to the colder-than-normal winter temperatures in 2025. Additional key drivers of the increase in earnings are highlighted by segment on this page.
Moving to page 14 for select considerations for the remainder of the year. We remain confident in our 2026 earnings per share guidance range of $5.25 to $5.45 and continue to maintain disciplined cost management throughout the company. Recall that in 2025, we increased energy center and discretionary tree-trimming expenditures to enhance our customer experience, especially during severe weather events. We are continuing these reliability-focused efforts and would expect higher tree-trimming costs in 2026, particularly in the second quarter of this year as compared to 2025. As you think about quarterly results for the balance of the year, I encourage you to consider the supplemental earnings drivers outlined on this page.
Turning to page 15, I will provide an update on Ameren Illinois and Ameren Missouri regulatory matters. In April, Ameren Illinois requested a $65 million revenue adjustment as part of the annual performance-based rate reconciliation under the electric distribution multiyear rate plan. This adjustment reflects 2025 actual costs, actual year-end rate base, and return on equity and common equity ratio established in the multiyear rate plan. An ICC decision is expected in December, with rates reflecting the approved reconciliation adjustment effective January 2027. In addition, over the course of the year, we will engage with stakeholders on our proposed electric distribution grid investment plan for the 2028 through 2031 period.
Proposed investments in the plan are designed to further enhance the reliability and resiliency of the grid. We expect an ICC decision on the proposed investment plan by December, with an associated rate filing to follow in 2027. Finally, we expect to file our next Ameren Missouri electric rate review in mid-2026 to recover costs for significant infrastructure investments made to the grid to ensure the system remains reliable and resilient for all customers. Turning to page 16, where we provide a financing update. We continue to feel good about our financial position. In the first quarter, we successfully completed our planned debt issuances at Ameren Missouri and Ameren Parent.
As we fund our robust infrastructure plan, we remain focused on maintaining a strong balance sheet and supporting our credit ratings. To that end, we continue to make progress against our expected equity issuances of approximately $4 billion from 2026 through 2030. To satisfy our 2026 equity needs, last May, we sold forward approximately $600 million of equity, representing approximately 6.4 million shares we expect to issue near the end of this year. For 2027 and beyond, so far in 2026, we have sold forward approximately $600 million of common stock under our at-the-market program. We will continue to be thoughtful about our approach to executing our equity plan.
With respect to the balance sheet, last month, we held our annual ratings agency meetings with S&P and Moody’s. In April, S&P affirmed our BBB+ credit rating and stable outlook, and we expect Moody’s to issue their annual credit opinion updates in the coming weeks. As we have said before, we value our current ratings, and we remain committed to maintaining a strong balance sheet and strong credit metrics as we execute our growth plan. In summary, turning to page 17. We are making strong progress towards our strategic objectives in 2026, which we expect will continue to drive consistent, superior value for all our stakeholders. We are excited about the future.
Our outlook remains supported by robust yet conservative sales assumptions, solid rate base growth, disciplined cost management, and a strong pipeline of customer value-driven investment opportunities. As a result, we continue to expect strong earnings and dividend growth supporting an attractive total shareholder return. That concludes our prepared remarks. We now invite your questions.
Operator: We will now move to our question and answer session. If you have joined via the webinar, please use the raise hand icon, which can be found at the bottom of your webinar application. When you are called on, please unmute your line and ask your question. We will now pause a moment to assemble the queue. Okay, your first question comes from the line of Jeremy Bryan Tonet from JPMorgan. Please unmute and ask your question.
Jeremy Bryan Tonet: Hi. Good morning.
Martin J. Lyons: Good morning.
Jeremy Bryan Tonet: Just want to start off here. I was wondering if we could talk a bit more about your conversations with large load and data centers here. Wondering if you are having conversations in D.C., potential interest beyond the 3.4 gigawatts in Missouri and 850 megawatts in Illinois. Just want to get a sense for those types of conversations, what that could look like over time. And then at the same time, how does community engagement stand as far as dealing with local stakeholders’ receptivity to this type of development?
Martin J. Lyons: Yes, sure, Jeremy. This is Marty. Good to hear from you. I would say broadly, in both states, both in Missouri and Illinois, we have several gigawatts in each state of other projects with engineering studies underway. So in addition to those places where we have construction agreements, beyond that there are several gigawatts of interest in both states that have matured to the engineering study stage, and we will see whether those come to fruition or not. I would say some of the conversations that we are having are with hyperscalers that have already signed ESAs, specifically in Missouri, about expansion opportunities beyond what they have already signed up for.
So some very encouraging conversations that speak to the long-term growth prospects associated with these data centers and hyperscalers. More specifically, if you look at what we have talked about this year that I think is most encouraging is, as you mentioned, we have in Missouri 3.4 gigawatts of construction agreements. In Illinois, we have 850 megawatts of construction agreements. Drilling down on Missouri, that 3.4 gigawatts of construction agreements—back in February, we moved 2.2 of that to energy services agreements, so ESAs that were signed. With respect to those, we are looking forward, hopefully in the second quarter, to some public announcements and groundbreaking and starting to get construction underway. That is that 2.2.
Then as I said in my prepared remarks, of the remaining 1.2 of construction agreements, we are optimistic that in the very near term, we can see additional ESAs signed with respect to a portion of that 1.2 that is under construction agreement. So overall, my answer to your question, Jeremy: we are seeing good progress with respect to the ESAs we have signed. We are seeing good progress in Missouri with respect to converting some of those construction agreements to further ESAs. We are hopeful to have those completed in the near term, and we are optimistic here in the second quarter we are going to see some of those ESAs move to groundbreakings and beginning of construction activity.
As I said at the outset, a fairly good pipeline of interest both in Missouri and Illinois that speaks to the long-term growth of data centers and sales across our two states. With respect to communities, I would say that broadly, our states remain supportive of the economic development associated with these data centers and ESAs. In certain communities, I think there are going to be concerns expressed, and other communities are going to be receptive to these data centers and to this growth.
There are a number of places across the states of Missouri and Illinois, and in our service territories in particular, that are zoned for this kind of development and I think are appropriate for this kind of development, and so we are optimistic that we are going to see good growth specifically in Missouri but also in Illinois.
Jeremy Bryan Tonet: Got it. That is helpful there. And then next question, at the risk of getting ahead of myself here, I believe you have defined ramp schedules where if you exceed that, that can lead to upside in the CapEx—a gig by ’29, 1.2 by 2030. Just wondering, taking everything that you just talked about there, your preliminary thoughts on line of sight to exceeding those ramp schedules, and when the potential for incremental capital coming into the plan might materialize.
Martin J. Lyons: Yes, Jeremy, great question. You are right. What we laid out in our plans for sales growth is an assumption of about 1.2 gigawatts of growth by 2030, which would represent about a 6.2% sales CAGR in Missouri. Our generation plans that we are building out would provide for sales incremental to that. We had talked about the generation plans providing for up to an additional two gigawatts of sales by 2032, and by 2040 up to three and a half gigawatts. So again, some generation buildout to serve above that initial sales growth assumption. However, as I mentioned, we have signed 2.2 gigawatts of ESAs.
We are very close to signing additional ESAs that would bump up that number, and to the extent that the growth in sales comes faster than what was assumed in our plan—so, again, if that 2.2 gigawatts or more exceeds the growth rate included in our plans out through 2030—it certainly represents upside. I would say it represents upside from the standpoint of sales and sales margins, but also causes us to think about our generation needs in the next five years and in the next ten years. Within the next five, are there things that we can accelerate—things like renewables or dispatchable resources like batteries or potentially fuel cells?
And then even in the five to ten years, what do the sales growth look like associated with the ESAs we have signed? Also, as I mentioned a minute ago, we are having conversations with these hyperscalers, in particular even the ones that have signed these ESAs, about expansion possibilities—really looking at sales growth beyond the five years and the ten- and fifteen-year period and what additional generation might be needed to serve in those periods to the extent that we see sales growth beyond the assumptions included in our IRP we filed last year. That leads me up to later this year in September.
We are required in Missouri to file an integrated resource plan, and we plan to do that in September. It is a comprehensive update. We will look at all the assumptions that go into that—first and foremost, sales: what we expect the sales growth to look like over a 20-year period, but certainly in the next five and ten in particular. We will take into account these ESAs that we have signed, the ramp rates we are seeing, the conversations that we are having with data center developers and hyperscalers, and the economic growth more broadly in our region beyond those data centers.
We will be looking at the most reliable and affordable path forward in terms of generation resources to deploy to serve them, and we will roll that out in September. I think that will be a good milestone in terms of giving a marker for what we expect sales growth to be, what we expect the generation buildout to be, and that should also serve as an opportunity for us to give a good update on our third quarter call with respect to our investment plans, our rate base growth, and earnings expectations looking out over time.
Jeremy Bryan Tonet: Got it. That makes sense. I will leave it there. Thank you.
Operator: Your next question comes from the line of Richard Sunderland with Truist Securities. Please unmute your line and ask your question.
Richard Sunderland: Good morning.
Operator: Okay. Great. Thank you.
Richard Sunderland: Picking up some of the points from the prior questions, curious if you could speak a bit more to the fuel cell opportunity you alluded to there and how you see that fitting in as a solution over the next few years?
Martin J. Lyons: Again, Richard, I think I put the word “possibility” in there. What we are really looking at over the next five years is that it is obviously very difficult to get any additional gas-fired generation done in the next five or six years if you have not already started. We have two big projects going on that we have talked about, both Castle Bluff and Big Hollow, and another 2,100-megawatt combined cycle facility planned for 2031. What we are looking at—what I was trying to really say—is over the next five to six years, really looking at anything we can accelerate and bring in during that time period.
The options appear to be things like renewables and batteries, which we have talked about and are deploying some of those. Of course, we will take a look at fuel cells—not a commitment to that, but something we are looking at as a possibility for dispatchable resources in this time period.
Richard Sunderland: Understood. That is helpful. To take that topic but zoom out a bit, could you speak to the generation efforts overall from a supply chain perspective and a planning perspective as you think about that upcoming IRP filing and what you have an eye to into the 2030s? You spoke to the three gigawatts of CCNs to be filed in short order. Just curious what you are looking at even beyond that and if you have already taken steps there.
Martin J. Lyons: Yes, Richard. I will start and then turn it over to Michael. First of all, with respect to that three gigawatts of new resources, there were some questions we got about whether that was previously planned. I will tell you that it was. If you look at the IRP from last February, which is on slide 22—it is back in the appendix—you will see that we had about five gigawatts of generation planned by 2030, and then, as I mentioned, that combined cycle facility, another 2,100 megawatts planned for 2031.
To be clear, the three gigawatts that we laid out on slide eight, for which we are going to be seeking CCNs, are all consistent with that IRP we filed last year. The capital for those is consistent with the plans we rolled out in February. I will start there, but I will turn it over to Michael Main to address some of the other questions you had.
Michael Main: Thanks, Marty. Good morning. A little more specifically with respect to generation, I think we sit in a good spot. There is obviously a great deal of activity going on. As Marty indicated, we feel good about the number of projects that we have under construction—these solar projects. From a gas perspective, we have spoken about this. We have a simple-cycle project coming online at the end of 2027, another one in 2028. We have those turbines under contract. In fact, we have taken delivery of our first turbine for the 2027 project. We have EPC contracts in place.
Labor is mobilized and making really good progress on both of those simple cycles, along with about 400 megawatts of battery at that second site that comes online in 2028. With respect to longer term, the combined cycle—again, we feel good about where we sit today from a procurement of long lead-time material. We have executed the contract with Mitsubishi for that, and we have good line of sight on delivery of all that power island equipment in 2031—HRSGs, steam generators, etc. We feel good about those delivery timelines. We are working through the labor component piece of this. We have a consortium that we are putting in place with national construction companies.
We are very fortunate to have a number of companies headquartered here in St. Louis that are going to be put together to build these plants, along with a global engineering design firm that will help design and engineer this for us. There is obviously a great deal of work that needs to go into building these combined cycles—it is a large construction project, 2,100 megawatts—but we feel good about where we sit today and the work ahead of us. Longer term, as Marty talked about, there are a number of scenarios that we are working through at the moment in terms of future demand and future generation needs.
All of these conversations are ongoing with the various vendors, recognizing where we are from a supply chain perspective and making sure that we are taking the appropriate steps to continue to put us in a place that allows us to execute against this plan. So more to come as we work through it. I do not want to front-run the IRP, but all of that has been going on, Richard, for the better part of the past year.
Richard Sunderland: Very helpful. Thanks for the time.
Martin J. Lyons: Alright, Richard. Thank you.
Operator: The next question comes from the line of Shariah Pourreza with Wells Fargo. Please unmute your line and ask your question.
Analyst: Hi. This is actually Andrew on for Shar. On the topic of nuclear, the government has indicated some level of interest in the AP1000. There seems to be a consortium of regulated utilities that is forming and could consider new nuclear development as a group if cost overrun risk is taken on by a potential offtaker. Would you consider being part of this consortium, or maybe already are part of this consortium, given your experience with Callaway and the 1.5 gigawatts of new nuclear in your IRP?
Martin J. Lyons: Welcome this morning. We are not a part of that consortium. As you know, we do own and operate the Callaway Energy Center here in Missouri, and if you look at that IRP that we laid out on slide 22, as we look to the longer term, we certainly think nuclear should be part of the long-term portfolio—not just Callaway, but additional nuclear resources in the long term. It is something that we are going to continue to study. The state of Missouri as well is working on an updated state energy plan, and we will be taking part in that. The state is also looking at what it would take to support new nuclear.
We are going to participate in workshops associated with that, and we will see where that leads in terms of the long term—the type of technology that is deployed and the time frame on which to do it. I think we, like a lot of companies that are interested in nuclear, are certainly looking at the advancements of not only AP1000-type technology but small modular reactors and looking over time for price and schedule certainty that would allow you to move forward. Certainly, things like consortiums may very well be a good path forward in terms of being able to address some of the risks associated with price and schedule.
We will continue to look at those types of opportunities and engage with the state and see where that leads over time. Thanks for the question.
Analyst: Thank you. That is very helpful. Elsewhere in the country, we have seen customers with signed ESAs have trouble securing zoning for their data center sites. Do your customers have sites secured for the 2.2 gigawatts you have under ESA? And are there any other risks to the ramp under those ESAs that we should be considering?
Martin J. Lyons: With respect to those 2.2, those sites have been secured, and as I said earlier, we are looking forward in the near term—hopefully in the second quarter—to see some groundbreaking ceremonies and construction get underway. With respect to those, we feel good about it. When you look beyond that, I talked about some of the construction agreements that we have or some of the sites that are going under engineering with engineering studies. Those are in a variety of areas and in various stages of getting approvals. But with respect to the projects where we have the ESAs, we feel very good about those.
Analyst: Thank you. I will leave it there.
Operator: Just a reminder, if you would like to ask a question, please select the raise hand icon that can be found at the bottom of your webinar application. Our next question comes from Carly Davenport. Looks like Carly lowered her hand. Our next question comes from—oh, Carly’s back. Our next question comes from Carly S. Davenport with Goldman Sachs. Carly, please unmute your line and ask your question.
Carly S. Davenport: Hey. Good morning. Sorry about that. Thanks for taking the questions.
Martin J. Lyons: No worries, Carly.
Carly S. Davenport: Maybe just to start on the MISO transmission projects. Can you talk a little bit about the key considerations that you are evaluating on whether or not you will put forth a bid on the remaining two competitive projects as part of that process, and a sense of when you might expect to file those?
Martin J. Lyons: Yes, sure, Carly. If you look at what we outlined on slide nine where we have some of the transmission projects, we outlined in the bottom table those competitive projects where we have had a joint bid submitted and then some of the projects that are under evaluation. As we look at different project opportunities like that, it is really looking at whether we think we can put forward a good competitive proposal that delivers the value that is expected to be delivered from those projects. We think we have strong capabilities in this area. We have strengths in planning, design, project management, construction, operations, and maintenance.
We have delivered great value within our region, and we have won a few of these competitive projects over time. We will take a look at each one of those projects, and if we think we can be competitive and bring value, then we will submit a bid. I would also highlight, while we are on the topic of transmission, we have a robust investment plan over the five years, and we see that as having upside as well. I mentioned earlier some of the upside associated with these large loads as it relates to sales and the generation portfolio, but that exists in the transmission area as well.
When we put together our capital plans each year, we have always been pretty disciplined about what we put in there—whether it is the CapEx or the rate base growth plans. We do not typically include projects until there is clarity on timing, scope, and the system and/or customer need associated with those. As we look at some of this growth—large loads and generators wanting to connect to our system—those represent upside opportunities for us in terms of incremental transmission investment. We are looking at both things.
I add that because as we look ahead at growth opportunities in transmission, we are both looking at those investments that we typically make to interconnect customers and generators as well as these competitive projects—so a couple of areas of upside for us as we look at our capital plans going forward.
Carly S. Davenport: Got it. Appreciate that. Super helpful. One other question from me on the ICC reconciliation process. I guess it is not atypical to have some divergence on the OPEB treatment, but what are your thoughts on the adjustments proposed related to the infrastructure investments? Do you see any scope for some movement on that side?
Andrew Kirk: Hey, Carly. This is Andrew Kirk. Those adjustments are typical as part of the process. There is nothing unusual there, so you should assume that is just a typical part of the process—truing up rate base and related items as part of the 2025 reconciliation.
Carly S. Davenport: Got it. Great. Thank you for the time.
Operator: Thanks, Carly. Our next question comes from David Paz with Wolfe. Please unmute your line and ask your question.
David Paz: Hello. Marty, you may have just answered part of this, but let me ask it more bluntly. Do you anticipate the remaining 1.2 gigawatts of construction agreements to begin ramping in your current period by 2030, or will the ramps begin post-2030? I am referring to the ones for which you expect potentially some outcome in the near term.
Martin J. Lyons: Yes, David. I think that what you are asking about is: we have 3.4 gigawatts of construction agreements; 2.2 of that was announced in February, which leaves another 1.2 in construction agreements. As I said a couple of times, we do expect a subset of that to move to ESAs in the near term. The ramp rates in each one of these is confidential. You could see some movement in terms of sales associated with those during this five-year period. As you sign these ESAs, there is a period of construction to get the data center built before the sales start to kick in, but you could see some of that sales growth within the five-year period.
David Paz: That is great. Relative to your current sales outlook and capital plan, would you view any generation spend in your five-year period to be additive to the $32 billion, or as you get incremental opportunities would you displace CapEx, just given any build constraints?
Martin J. Lyons: We are always looking at the overall capital plan and the puts and takes, but I would expect that it would be added to the overall plan. Also, to the extent that those generation resources are being accelerated or built for the purpose of supplying the large load, obviously through Senate Bill 4 and the tariff that we have, those costs would be ultimately borne by those large loads. That is probably the best way to think about it.
David Paz: That is great. Then just a clarification. I think in an earlier response you said you felt good about solar projects among other types of projects. What about the one gigawatt of wind in your plan by year-end 2030? I think at least in your IRP you have all the permits there, zoning. Any issues with that? What is the status?
Martin J. Lyons: Yes, David. As you look at that portion of the IRP, we are still interested in wind as a resource. As we think about the renewable portion of our overall generation mix, it is good to have some diversity in there of solar and wind resources. But the timing of that relative to solar, I would say, is somewhat adjustable. We would love to see some more wind in our portfolio over time, but over the five-year period you could see, for example, solar displace that and the wind get pushed out a little bit. I would think about it that way: the timing does not have to be necessarily within the five-year period.
We remain interested in wind, and you may see a substitution of solar for wind in that period.
Operator: We have now reached the end of our question and answer session. I would now like to turn the call over to Martin J. Lyons for closing remarks.
Martin J. Lyons: Thank you all for joining us today. Through robust and disciplined investment in our electric, natural gas, and transmission infrastructure this year, we are positioning Ameren Corporation to reliably serve our customers and growing communities now and in the future. We look forward to seeing many of you in the next few weeks. Thanks, and have a great day.
