Logo of jester cap with thought bubble.

Image source: The Motley Fool.

DATE

Wednesday, May 6, 2026 at 8:30 a.m. ET

CALL PARTICIPANTS

  • Chief Executive Officer — Maximo Vedoya
  • Chief Financial Officer — Pablo Brizzio

TAKEAWAYS

  • Earnings Margin -- 12%, reflecting margin recovery attributed to a stronger Mexican market, a focus on profitability over volume in Brazil, and increased operational efficiency.
  • Adjusted EBITDA -- Up 21% sequentially, supported by improved margins and in line with company expectations.
  • Net Income -- $372 million, driven by enhanced operating performance, foreign exchange gains in Mexico, Argentina, and Brazil, and a $122 million deferred tax benefit influenced by currency movements and inflation in Argentina.
  • Litigation Impact -- $48 million loss recorded from a litigation provision tied to the 2012 Usiminas participation acquisition.
  • Steel Shipments -- Broadly flat quarter over quarter overall; Mexico shipments increased on tighter trade defenses and healthier inventories, while Brazil and Argentina saw modest to sequential declines due to sector-specific and seasonal factors.
  • Steel Segment Income -- Cash operating income improved, with higher realized prices partly offset by increased raw material and slab input costs.
  • Mining Segment Shipments -- Sequential decline due to operational disruptions from intense rainfall in Brazil.
  • Net Cash Position -- $327 million at quarter-end, after a $350 million payment for Usiminas share acquisition and a $150 million loan inflow from Techgen, which do not fully offset in cash flow calculations.
  • Pesqueria Project Status -- Cold rolling and galvanizing lines are ramping ahead of schedule, with expected operation near full capacity by October; slab facility progressing on plan.
  • Patent Achievement -- Granted a U.S. patent for a new electrical steelmaking process enabling scalable production of exposed steel, leveraging site integration of direct reduction.
  • Key Customer Recognitions -- Received Ariston Group's Strategic Partner award and John Deere’s 2025 Crop Award for quality and collaboration.
  • Argentina Demand Outlook -- Demand recovery in 2026 began weaker than expected, with specific sector strength in mining, energy, and agriculture offset by softness in construction and other domestic consumption areas.
  • CapEx Outlook -- 2025 capital expenditures totaled $2.5 billion; projected to drop to $1.0-$1.2 billion by 2027 as major projects complete.
  • Dividend Yield -- Dividend yield is around 5%, with plans to maintain a policy of "taking a good dividend."

Need a quote from a Motley Fool analyst? Email [email protected]

RISKS

  • Chief Executive Officer Vedoya said, "the real risk, let me say, of the conflict in the Middle East is that if it's not resolved quickly, it could cost more a recession."
  • Imports of steel in Brazil increased approximately 30% quarter over quarter, creating elevated inventory levels that may pressure pricing and require time to normalize.
  • Argentina's market demand in 2026 "did not start as we had expected," with sectors such as construction, metal, mechanical, and home appliances described as "lagging" due to "weak domestic consumption."
  • Net cash position declined in part due to a $350 million outflow for Usiminas shares, contributing to a move from a net cash to a net debt position in the near term.

SUMMARY

Ternium (TX +9.77%) demonstrated improved profitability, with sequential adjusted EBITDA up 21% and a 12% earnings margin amid continued efficiency gains and stronger conditions in Mexico. The company emphasized the advancing Pesqueria project, with significant progress in cold rolling and galvanizing and the slab facility on schedule, as well as the patent of a new electrical steelmaking process targeting automotive market opportunities. Recent agreements with the Mexican government to prioritize domestic steel in public procurements and customer accolades suggest constructive demand drivers, while sequential declines in mining shipments and regional demand disparities, particularly in Argentina and Brazil, highlight ongoing operational challenges. Investments are set to decrease as major project completions approach, with management reiterating its commitment to dividend payments and monitoring capital allocation opportunities.

  • Chief Financial Officer Brizzio highlighted, "sales will grow in the second quarter of this year, likely requiring a further rise in working capital."
  • Chief Executive Officer Vedoya stated, "is going to be renewed probably with much tougher rule of origin, which I think is a very good thing," though timing remains uncertain beyond July.
  • The cold rolling mill and galvanizing line ramp-ups at Pesqueria are expected to support qualification for automotive exposed material by 2028, with certification efforts underway with customers.
  • Brizzio indicated that continued simplification of the corporate structure and future investment opportunities remain under review as CapEx levels normalize.

INDUSTRY GLOSSARY

  • USMCA: United States-Mexico-Canada Agreement, a trade deal impacting North American manufacturing and steel sectors through rules of origin and tariff structures.
  • Section 232: U.S. trade policy allowing tariffs or import restrictions on steel and aluminum when imports are deemed a threat to national security.
  • Direct Reduction: A steelmaking process producing iron without melting, using reducing gases at a lower temperature, often resulting in lower emissions than traditional blast furnace methods.
  • Exposed Steel: Steel products manufactured with surface quality fit for visible automotive or appliance applications, requiring stringent quality controls and certifications.
  • CapEx: Capital expenditures on long-term assets or projects that drive future growth.
  • EAF: Electric Arc Furnace, a steel production method using electricity to melt scrap or direct reduced iron, often viewed as more environmentally sustainable.
  • Techgen: Ternium's nonconsolidated energy joint venture that supplies power to its Mexican operations.
  • Usiminas: A major Brazilian steelmaker in which Ternium holds a strategic stake.
  • MUSA: Refers to Usiminas' iron ore mining operations and potential expansion avenues for raw material self-sufficiency.

Full Conference Call Transcript

Maximo Vedoya: Thank you, Sebastian. Good morning, everyone, and thank you for joining our conference call. Earnings margin in the first quarter continued on a recovery path, reaching 12%. This improvement reflects a combination of factors: an improving market environment in Mexico, a focus on profitability over volume in Brazil, and the continued work of our teams to increase efficiency across our industrial operations. In Mexico, apparent steel consumption fell around 10% in 2025, driven by uncertainty triggered by U.S. trade actions. In 2026, however, we see an improvement. The Mexican government has been actively working to mitigate the negative effects of U.S. trade measures on the Mexican economy by defending the local industry against unfair imports from Asia.

These actions not only support the continued development of the Mexican industry but are closely aligned with the U.S. government's own trade strategy. Plan Mexico is also central to this effort. It promotes industrial development, increases domestic content in manufacturing and strengthens regional supply chains. In this same line, last week, the steel industry and the Mexican government signed a landmark agreement to prioritize domestically produced steel in all public procurements, a clear sign of the opportunity ahead. Taken together, these policies support our expectation of a recovery in Mexican steel demand. In this context, we expect volumes in Mexico to continue improving in the second quarter, driven mainly by the commercial market.

The significant destocking that took place across the value chain in 2025 is now giving way to a normalization of apparent demand. Beyond that, we are seeing early movements in several infrastructure projects, which could add meaningful demand in the coming quarters. Turning to our Pesqueria project in Mexico. The ramp-up curve of the cold rolling mill and the galvanizing line are running ahead of plan. We expect both lines to be operating close to a full capacity by October. The slab facility is also advancing in line with expectation. This project is central to our strategy.

It will significantly increase our vertical integration in Mexico, reduce our [ resilience ] on externally sourced slabs and enhance our product capabilities across automotive, industrial and construction applications. Importantly, as the automotive USMCA rule of origin enters into effect next year, this facility will position Ternium as a key player in meeting a growing demand. In this respect, I am pleased to share that we have been granted a patent in the United States for our new electrical steelmaking process, which will enable us to produce exposed steel at scale. This innovation leverages the integration of direct reduction at the same site.

In addition, innovations such as virtual stamping solution, which utilizes artificial intelligence to streamline certification process for the automotive industry, enforcing our drive for operational excellence. This commitment continues to be recognized by our customers. In February, we were honored by [ Ariston Group ] with their [ Strategic Partner ] award, the highest recognition for quality and partnership. And in April, Ternium Mexico received the 2025 John Deere Crop Award and achieved the partner level, John Deere's highest distinction for cost-effective and long-term collaboration. Brazil steel consumption remains broadly stable with some sectors showing resilience and others facing more pressure. The automotive industry continues to perform well, with production expected to grow around 4% this year.

On the other hand, sectors like agribusiness has been weakened -- have seen weaker demand. A key challenge in the quarter was a significant increase in steel imports, up around 30% versus the previous quarter. Imports accelerated ahead of the government's antidumping measures on cold-rolled and coated products. This has resulted in elevated inventory levels of imported material in the market, which we expect to normalize by the second half of the year. As these trade defensive measures gain traction and inventories level normalize, we expect Usiminas' market share to improve. However, it is also worth noting that import pressure is not limited to China.

Volumes from Southeast Asia, particularly South Korea and Vietnam, have increased significantly, reflecting the indirect effects of China oversupply on the region's trade flow. In March, we were honored to welcome President Lula to the official inauguration of the Roberto Rocca Technical School located near our Rio de Janeiro plant. The school provides full-funded technical education to young people from the surrounding communities, offering them access to world-class education. Built with an investment of $50 million, we expect to welcome close to 600 students by next year. In Argentina, after a 2024 record, one of the lowest steel consumption levels in 2 decades, the market began to recover in 2025. However, 2026 did not start as we had expected.

Demand is growing unequally. Mining, energy and agriculture are performing well. Automotive remains at reasonable levels. Constructions remain soft. Metal, mechanical and home appliance sectors are lagging, affected by weak domestic consumption. As I bring my remarks to a close, I am pleased to share that Ternium has once again been recognized as a Sustainability Champion by the World Steel Association. This recognition is granted to companies that [ integrate ] sustainability into their core strategy, combining environmental management, safety performance, innovation and responsible community engagement. Looking ahead, we are constructive on our market and our ability to continue improving performance.

In Mexico, the combination of normalizing demand, supportive industrial policies and the ramp-up of our downstream projects position us well for the quarters ahead. In Brazil, as trade defensive measures gain traction and imports inventory normalize, we expect to see a healthy competitive environment. In Argentina, we continue to monitor the recovery closely, while remaining -- maintaining our operational discipline. Across all our operations, our teams remain focused on driving efficiency and lowering cost, and we're already seeing the benefits. Overall, the recognition we continue to receive from our customers reflects the quality of what we are doing every day. We are confident in Ternium's ability to deliver even stronger performance in the periods ahead.

With that, I'd like to move to a review of our quarterly performance. Pablo, please go ahead.

Pablo Brizzio: Thanks, Maximo, and thanks, everybody, for participating in our call. So let's review our operational and financial performance for the first quarter of this year. Starting the webcast presentation on Page #3, we can see that the adjusted EBITDA increased sequentially by 21% in the first quarter, in line with our expectations and reflecting margin improvement. Looking ahead, we expect adjusted EBITDA margin to continue increasing, supported by higher revenue per ton, particularly in Mexico and Brazil, partially offset by higher cost per ton across our main markets. Let's move to the next slide. Net income for the first quarter of 2026 reached $372 million.

This reflects improved operating performance, stronger net financial results, primarily driven by foreign exchange gain in Mexico, Argentina and Brazil, and positive deferred tax results. Deferred tax gain amounted to $122 million, driven mainly by currency fluctuations in Argentina and Brazil and inflation effects in Argentina. Net income in the quarter also included a $48 million loss from the quarterly update of the value of a provision from ongoing litigation related to the acquisition of the participation in Usiminas in 2012. Let's turn to Page 5 to review the Steel segment performance. Overall, shipments were broadly in line with the previous quarter. In Mexico, volumes increased, supported by solid commercial market activity.

This was driven by more effective trade defenses against unfair imports, healthier inventory level across the value chain and a seasonal recovery in demand. In Brazil, Usiminas prioritized profitability in the face of increased cost volatility, particularly in energy and logistics, resulting in a modest sequential decline in shipments. In the Southern region, demand softened, reflecting weaker industrial activity in Argentina, alongside typical seasonal factors, leading to a sequential decrease in shipments. Looking ahead, we expect shipments to trend higher, mainly driven by Mexico and Argentina, as trade measures gain traction in Mexico and demand conditions gradually improve across both markets. Let's turn to Page 6 to review the performance of our Steel segment.

Steel cash operating income improved during the period, driven by higher margins, resulting from realized prices gains, which were partially offset by higher raw material and purchased slab costs. On next slide, the Mining segment reflects a different dynamic. In this case, shipment declined sequentially due to operational disruptions in Brazil caused by an unusual intense rainfall. Finally, let's turn to the cash flow and balance sheet performance on Page 8. The company continues to generate strong cash flow from operations, although this quarter, we saw an increase in working capital, driven by an increase in trade receivables, mainly due to higher steel prices and volumes in Mexico.

We anticipate that sales will grow in the second quarter of this year, likely requiring a further rise in working capital. Capital expenditures continue to reflect our progress in the expansion of our industrial center in Pesqueria, now mostly focused on the construction of the slab making facility. Finally, we ended the quarter with a net cash position of $327 million. On top of our CapEx needs, the cash position decline included a $350 million payment for acquisition of Usiminas shares from Nippon Steel, partially offset by $150 million loan collection from Techgen, our nonconsolidated energy joint venture that supplies power to our operations in Mexico. Okay. This concludes our prepared remarks for the first quarter.

We will now be happy to take your questions. Thanks, and please proceed with the Q&A session.

Operator: [Operator Instructions] Our first question comes from Mr. Rodolfo Angele from JPMorgan.

Rodolfo De Angele: Okay. So I wanted to just hear your thoughts on 2 aspects that I think are relevant for Ternium's future performance. So first, there's been a lot of discussion on USMCA. So if you could share your thoughts on what happens there and what it means in terms of different scenarios for the company's performance? And I also wanted to hear from you a little bit about the expectations for the slab market in terms of pricing outlook for the [ remainder ] of the year, especially. And that's all.

Maximo Vedoya: Thank you, Rodolfo. Let me start with the USMCA question. And as you know, there have been a lot of discussion and talks about USMCA. Look, I believe that there will be a trade -- a deal between U.S. and Mexico. And as you know, the U.S. administration through the USTR and the Mexican government through the Ministry -- or Secretary of Economy holding meetings. There is a formal meeting on the 25 of May, which is going to start formally the revision -- or the discussions of the USMCA. Most of that discussions are probably going to be on discussing mainly stricter rule of origin and some other issues that have [ arisen ].

And I think my thoughts on this is that this is going to take some time. So I am positive, there is going to be an agreement. But I don't know exactly the timeline, probably won't be by the 1st of July and probably would get most of this year. So this is, I mean, the -- my thoughts of what is happening in the USMCA. There's also some discussions going on, on the Section 232. As you know, I don't think -- my thoughts is, and I always said, there is no -- there's incomparability between Section 232 and USMCA.

It doesn't make sense, makes Mexico subject to 232 in steel as the U.S. has a steel trade surplus -- a very big steel trade surplus with Mexico. I know the Mexican administration has also stated that there is a priority while the USMCA negotiate that there has to be a relief in steel and automotive Section 232. And I know they are discussing this during the following weeks. Nevertheless, I think it's important that the Mexican administration, as I said a little bit in my remarks, Rodolfo, has been very proactive in launching initiatives to strengthen the steel consumption in Mexico.

While all this is going on, the Plan Mexico, the target measures against unfair competition, the imposition of tariffs for countries that don't have trade agreement with Mexico, all this -- I think it's a very active way of the Mexican government to attack the problems of the Mexican economy, while these 2 things are negotiated. So in the end, I think USMCA, as I said, is going to be renewed probably with much tougher rule of origin, which I think is a very good thing. But I'm not that certain on the timing. Probably the timing -- it takes a little bit more longer. So I hope with this large answer, I did answer your question, Rodolfo.

Rodolfo De Angele: Yes, you did.

Maximo Vedoya: The slab market, what did you refer with the slab market?

Rodolfo De Angele: It's just a market that -- I think it's more unique overall in terms of how pricing dynamics work. So I just wanted to hear your thoughts on what do you see, especially on pricing, what do you expect for the coming quarters?

Maximo Vedoya: Prices, as it has been in most of steel products, has been increasing recently. Clearly, the increase in fuel increases the logistics for slabs. And also, there has been some increase in iron ore and in other raw materials, which have made the slab market a little bit more expensive. I mean, from all our production -- our buying of slab is not as big as it used to be because most of the slabs come from our Ternium Brazil facility. But nevertheless, we are buying in the market, and we are seeing some increase in that. It's compensated probably with the increase in prices in finishing products also.

Operator: Our next question comes from Mrs. Timna Tanners from Wells Fargo Securities.

Timna Tanners: So I wanted to ask, if I could, about a few things. One is to follow up on the USMCA discussions. The U.S. government is more interested in granting relief on tariffs if there is a construction of production in the U.S. So just wondering if you would expand your U.S. presence. Also wondering along those same lines about -- hearing about a Mexican dumping case against U.S. galvanized imports. If you could address those?

Maximo Vedoya: Timna, we are not thinking in making some production or increased production in the U.S. now. We don't have that as a plan today. And second, there is a dumping case against cold rolling products. There's no dumping case against galvanized in Mexico, at least in the U.S. There is a dumping case in galvanized against Vietnam and I think other countries.

Timna Tanners: Okay. I heard that Mexico was working on one against the U.S. I thought that could be positive for your operations. So we'll stay tuned there. Second, can you expand a bit more on the mention of electrical steel -- sorry, EAF capabilities to make exposed automotive and remind us what might be the time frame for doing that?

Maximo Vedoya: Yes, for sure. I mean, as you probably remember, the steel shop, it's going to start the ramp-up in the last quarter of -- between the last quarter of this year and early next year. As you know, the operation, it's -- I mean, the facility is huge. I hope all of you can one day visit it because it's worth visiting the facility. So the ramp-up facility -- the ramp-up curve should take at least all 2027. In the meantime, during all this ramp-up, we are going to work with the automotive customers to certify our products, certification process for all automotive products. Not only the exposed material, but also all the other parts of the car need certification.

But we are working very close with all of them because they are very eager to accelerate the certification process. And so, we are working already with them on how to accelerate the certification process as much as possible. We have recently increased the capacity of our Ternium Lab in Pesqueria, which we are working -- certifying all the lab equipment, so we can certify part of the process they need in that site.

And I mean, the capacity that this EAF is going to have to have, the capacity of producing exposed material in a sustainable way and in a continuous way is going to be unique because of the process we are doing and all the patents we are developing, especially to decrease all the nitrogen that the EAFs usually have. So this is a unique process that we are developing with our technical people and the supplier of equipment that is Tenova, some sister company of us.

So I mean, again, the timing should be around next year, probably by the third and fourth quarter of next year, that we are going to supply in a sustainable way to the automotive industry.

Timna Tanners: So it'll be qualified for 2028 or qualified for 2027?

Maximo Vedoya: No. The idea is to qualify everything for 2028.

Operator: Our next question comes from Mr. Alfonso Salazar from Scotiabank.

Alfonso Salazar: A couple of questions from my end. The first one is regarding the outlook in Argentina. I want to see if you can give us more color on what's going on and what are your expectations for future demand. Also trying to understand better what's the situation regarding imports. It seems to be more problematic than in the past. And also exports from Argentina to other Latin American countries, what is the outlook there because of the same thing, imports from -- to other countries from Asia? The second question is, some comments on the decarbonization trends in Latin America, it seems that -- we always knew that it was going to take longer than Europe.

But any comment on what is the outlook there as well, these trends of decarbonization and green steel?

Maximo Vedoya: Yes. Thank you, Alfonso. So outlook in Argentina, I mean, in the short term, shipments in the second quarter are going to increase because, as you know, the first quarter in Argentina is always a seasonably low quarter. January and February usually are holidays in Argentina. So the demand is quite -- then further down the road, I think, some of the sectors present a good opportunity, mining, oil and gas, and agriculture. They are compensated by others like mechanical goods and like electrical and white goods, sorry. That demand is not very good in the final goods. So it's going to be a little bit better, but we don't expect a huge growth compared to 2025.

Imports, although there have been a lot of talks about imports, we are not seeing imports in our products. We have seen some imports in the value chains, but these are stable today. I think the problem in our value chains is that the demand or the consumption is not very good. So that's the situation we have in Argentina. Decarbonization in Latin America, [ you're seeing ] the path is slower than in Europe. I think the pace in Europe has also decreased a lot. I mean, there's a lot of projects that have been announced in Europe that today are not going through, and they continue building up in blast furnace.

In Latin America, I can say 2 things. I think one, there is increasing -- in Mexico, where you have the opportunity to change from coal to natural gas. So Mexico will continue on a path of having probably the lowest steel production emissions per ton of production of probably the world. And in Brazil, there's more difficulty to change blast furnace. So the decarbonization there is going to go through -- by small decreases by efficiency, but still working with blast furnace.

Alfonso Salazar: And the outlook for other Latin American countries, demand in other countries that you source from Argentina?

Maximo Vedoya: No. The regional countries, I mean, usually, they don't have a huge impact in the shipments. We continue to ship to Uruguay, Paraguay. Those are the countries that we ship from Argentina. But the consumption there is marginal. So it's not going to have a huge impact on our shipments.

Operator: Our next question comes from Mr. Marcio Farid from Goldman Sachs.

Marcio Farid Filho: Obviously, another follow-up on USMCA and Section 232. I think what's changed maybe this time is that obviously, Mexico has put some import barriers to steel coming into Mexico to try and reduce triangulation as well or rerouting. And I'm just wondering, right, once -- assuming Section 232 to Mexico is either removed or reduced, do you think the competitive environment would be different versus where we were a few years ago when we did not have those import barriers? And I remember well, I think in Mexico, import is about 40% of all the steel that you need.

So just wondering if you can think about a structural change in terms of the competitive environment between North America, Mexico and the U.S. And second point, demand was very weak in Mexico last year. I think it was down 10%. Part of the reason was, as you mentioned, destocking, but also weak activity as companies wait for better visibility on their relationship with the U.S. You mentioned restocking helped -- has been helping pricing. I'm just wondering if you're seeing demand or activity also recovering or we need to see a final agreement with the U.S. for investments to really resume in Mexico. Those are my questions.

Maximo Vedoya: Thank you, Marcio. Yes, I mean, the first question about the triangulation and the efforts that the Mexican administration is doing to control this, I think there is already a structural change. I think the Mexican administration, way before Trump was elected and all this discussion began, was very focused on increasing the value-added content of all what is produced in Mexico. I mean, Mexico was a huge exporter, but the value added of those products, the regional content of those products were not very high. The Plan Mexico, which President Sheinbaum already announced in the campaign, in her campaign, was a plan for doing exactly this, for changing this dynamic.

So all the things that the Mexican administration is doing, as you mentioned, are a way of decreasing the dependency of Asian products, especially in those products that Mexico or the region is able to produce. The clear example of that is steel. So I think there is already a structural change. And probably this is going to be even better once the 232, as you said, is reduced or removed from the site between Mexico and the U.S. So clearly, you are correct in your assessment. There is a demand -- regarding the second question, Marcio, there is a demand increase in Mexico. It's not as high.

We are -- well, World Steel has just [ released ] that the demand in Mexico is going to grow around 4% in the year. Considering that the demand decreased by 10%, as you said, in 2025, it's not a huge increase, but it is an increase, and we are seeing some recovery in demand. I expect that this is going to be higher once the USMCA -- or where the USMCA is going is more clear. We are seeing this increase at least in a small space, but we are seeing it today. I hope that answered the question, Marcio.

Marcio Farid Filho: Yes, for sure.

Operator: Our next question comes from Mr. Rafael Barcellos by Bradesco BBI.

Rafael Barcellos: So first question, last week, the Mexican government signed an agreement, which I believe they called as an agreement for the promotion of the Mexican steel industry, right? And so, I just wanted to understand, I mean, when do you expect that these measures will finally translate into incremental demand for the country? And what else you think the government can promote to incentivize the sector in the short term? And as a second question, in your outlook, you mentioned a bit of the cost pressure that we have seen for all industries, and I understand that steel is not an exception.

But if you can elaborate a bit more on what we can expect for cost in the third Q, for example, it could be helpful.

Maximo Vedoya: Thank you, Rafael. Well, the agreement in Mexico, as I said, is an agreement between the government and the steel industry of Mexico to commit that most -- that all of the government use of steel is used -- Mexican steel is used in those infrastructure -- main infrastructure. I think it's very important because there was already a commitment to use Mexican steel.

But in some cases, especially all this new infrastructure that is coming by Pemex, by CFE, that is the electricity company, that our investment -- joint investment between public and private sectors, this is going to be -- it's going to be an impact in the demand of steel, especially with all the investment in gas lines, in renewable energy, solar and wind. It has a huge consumption of steel. So it is important in that sense. I don't expect the investments to start in the next quarter or the following. But I think that by year-end, all this effort that the government is doing will have an impact in demand.

Too early to say how much, but it's going to have an impact. The second question, sorry?

Pablo Brizzio: Cost.

Maximo Vedoya: The cost. Well, I mean, it's going to be an impact in cost. But for Ternium, it's not going to be a huge impact. The big impact is going to be in logistics and import of some slabs and some logistic costs in Brazil and probably in Argentina. But it's -- probably, that is going to compensate, as we said in the outlook, by also the price increases. I think that the real risk, let me say, of the conflict in the Middle East is that if it's not resolved quickly, it could cost more a recession. So we are thinking that, that's the real risk for us.

We see a little bit increase in cost, but again, more than compensated by the increase the prices of steel are having.

Rafael Barcellos: As a follow-up, sorry, can you just elaborate on what you're seeing as for cost trends in the third Q? And on the price side, I understand that prices are outpacing the cost increase. But can you just help us understand, in your view, what is the main driver for this recent good price momentum that we are seeing in Mexico?

Maximo Vedoya: Well, the good momentum, I think it's everywhere. You see, in Europe, prices increasing. You see in Brazil. You even see, in China, prices increasing. So I think part of that is motivated by the increase of cost, which is bigger than increase in Southeast Asia and is bigger in Europe than it is in the Americas. So I think that's the motivation, Rafael.

Operator: Our next question comes from Mr. Caio Ribeiro from Bank of America.

Caio Ribeiro: So I have 2 questions linked to your investments at Pesqueria. So first off, as you complete your upstream investments this year, what are some of the investment avenues that you're contemplating right now? Where does the MUSA expansion fit in within your list of priorities? And then, secondly, assuming that you don't greenlight another investment right away or a large investment like the Pesqueria upstream, downstream investments that you've done in the past years, those CapEx figures, they should drop considerably versus your recent run rate, which, together with that earnings increase that you get from your investments, should drive significantly higher free cash flow generation in the coming years, right?

So with that in mind, just wondering how you think about dividend payments going forward? Is there room in your view to boost those to cover a larger part of that positive free cash flow generation that you should have in the coming years? Those are my questions.

Maximo Vedoya: Thank you, Caio. Well, yes, the upstream investment, as you know, will -- as I said before, we will start the ramp-up curve by the end of the year or early next year. But I mean, we are still -- but it's still a long way to go. Today, the big investment that, as you say, we are analyzing is the expansion of MUSA. Usiminas has continued to analyze the different alternatives we have regarding CapEx and the cost of production and the material that we can take on each one of these alternatives.

And by the end of the year or early next year, we have to take a decision -- or we will have a decision on where to go on that. Those are so far the investments we are considering. I mean, we are not seeing yet a necessity or, I mean, the willingness to make another large investment so close as to bring in heavier project online. So yes, CapEx is going to decrease. As you remember, 2025, we have $2.5 billion of CapEx. This year, it's going to be lower than that -- much lower than that. Probably in 2027, it's going to be even lower, around $1.2 billion or $1 billion.

So yes -- and I mean, regarding the dividend, if the numbers improve and we have generation, as you know, we have a track record that the dividend -- our dividend has a very good yield, although we decreased a little bit the dividend -- or the Board decided to decrease a little bit the dividend because of the uncertainty, which I completely agree. Still, the yield dividend with the price of Ternium's [ ADS ] today, it's around 5%. So we will probably continue with this policy of taking a good dividend.

Operator: Our next question comes from Mr. Caio Greiner by UBS.

Caio Greiner: Two questions. The first one on Brazil. I wanted to hear your thoughts on the strategy that the company has following the recent antidumping duties implementation for the operations that you have there, especially at Usiminas. I wanted to know if you're going to favor, over the next few quarters and maybe even years, higher prices, higher profitability, value over volume, somewhat of what we saw during the first quarter? Or if the strategy is going to be more in the sense of gaining market share, expanding volumes?

And if that's the case, I wanted to know how much do you see in terms of volume gain potential over the next, again, quarters and years, and if you believe that you have enough capacity for this amount of volumes that you could increase going forward? And if you don't, what will be the strategy there? Relighting blast furnace, could it be on the pipeline? Or is that more in the sense of just purchasing more shares and raising capacity utilization? And the second one, just a follow-up to the previous capital allocation question. Maximo, you mentioned that you don't have plans of doing another large CapEx project while you still have the MUSA investment.

But could you still maybe -- could it be on the pipeline to, again, perform corporate simplification measures, more bottom-up or in-house initiatives like the Usiminas stake that you acquired during the first quarter or anything related to Argentina? That would be very, very helpful.

Maximo Vedoya: Thank you, Caio. The first one, I mean, if we have to choose between the 2 strategies you said, probably it's the first one. And we don't want to produce more in order to sell something that the market doesn't need. And so, we are going to start to -- we will always prefer the first strategy. It's clear that with all the measures that the Brazilian government is taking -- as I said, Brazil is kind of a little bit late. I mean, Mexico, U.S., Canada, Europe, even India are taking measures a little bit more quickly than Brazil. But nevertheless, the trade measures in Brazil, it's a very good first step in the very right direction.

So if unfair trade comes down, probably it will increase also volume. But we are very -- going to be very cautious. Regarding our capital allocation, Pablo?

Pablo Brizzio: Thanks for letting me answer one question. So yes, regarding capital allocation and following on what Maximo said before, we are in the middle of a huge capital allocation structure, taking into consideration the rest of the capital expenditure in the facility in Mexico with the dividend payment and with the capital -- working capital increase because of the increasing volumes and decreasing prices that we saw. This year, as you know, we will be moving from a net cash position to a net debt position. And next year, you are totally right that we will be reducing the level of CapEx, but we will be sustaining probably the other outflows of capital.

This could lead to an increase on our position, our cash position, which is not bad and will prepare us for any opportunity that may appear in the market. Among these opportunities, you know that we have talked a lot in the past and we have worked a lot in order to simplify our corporate structure, and this is on our list of priorities. And if there is an opportunity to move in that direction, clearly something that we need to fully analyze and to carefully analyze because it's not that you have an opportunity and you can take it immediately. You need to do all the calculations in order to see the best way to proceed.

With that, as Maximo already explained, continuing with the dividend is a policy that we have. And if there are opportunities to improve that, if the numbers reflect it, it's something that we will consider. Additionally to that, we take -- if you want some rest -- our analyzing the next CapEx plan -- internal CapEx plan because the effort that we have to put in order to take this project to work is very significant. And as Maximo explained, we need to go through the ramp-up to certification. So this takes some time. That's why usually when we have this big CapEx plan, then we take at least 1 or 2 years to design the new ones.

But as also was explained here, we still believe that Ternium has opportunities to grow in all our markets, especially in Mexico and in Brazil. So there will be opportunities for us to analyze, but it will take some time for us to analyze them and present it to you.

Caio Greiner: Maybe just a follow-up to the first -- actually to the second one as well. So in terms of volume gains in Brazil, Maximo, you mentioned that if the unfair trade comes down, you should be able to increase volumes as well. Do you see the current capacity that you have in Brazil as enough for the volume gain that you could have for an expected market share gain? Or could you have -- think about an alternative of, again, relighting one of your blast furnaces there, think about maybe relighting or revamping Cubatao?

Maximo Vedoya: Yes, Caio, I mean, today, we have spare capacity in Brazil, especially in the Cubatao plant. As you know, it's a plant that is not working at full capacity. And we will also have slabs available from our Ternium facility in Rio once -- we don't have to ship as much slabs to Ternium Mexico because of the new mill coming -- the upstream project coming online. So I mean, yes, we have capacity in Brazil to grow. And I think it will be enough, I mean, if imports go down in Brazil.

Operator: That concludes the question-and-answer session. I would like to turn it back over to Mr. Maximo Vedoya for closing remarks. Please, Mr. Maximo, you may proceed.

Maximo Vedoya: Well, thank you very much all for joining us. We welcome, as usual, any feedback or additional questions that you have. In the meantime, have a great day. Bye.

Operator: Ternium's conference call has now concluded. Thank you for attending today's presentation. You may now disconnect, and have a good day.