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Can GoPro Stock Bounce Back After Last Week's 18% Drop?

By Rick Munarriz – Nov 6, 2016 at 1:15PM

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Shares of the wearable-camera maker shed nearly a fifth of their value after the company posted disappointing financial results.

Image source: GoPro.

Fans of GoPro (GPRO -0.41%) cameras love to relive the memories they record on their wearable cameras, but the same can't be said about how investors feel about last week. GoPro stock took a 17.9% hit last week, plummeting after another rough quarter.

Revenue dove 40% to $240.6 million during the fourth quarter. That's the fourth time in a row quarterly revenue has plunged by at least 30%. GoPro is checking in with an adjusted deficit of $0.60 a share, also its fourth consecutive quarterly loss. Analysts weren't even close. Wall Street pros were banking on a loss of just $0.35 a share on $318.6 million in revenue.

But the big miss doesn't mean the Hero5, GoPro's long overdue update to 2014's Hero4, is a dud. The camera hit the market just after the period came to a close. However, GoPro's troublesome guidance for the holiday quarter does point to the production issues that the leading maker of wearable cameras appears conceded to having with both the Hero5 camera and the even more scarce Karma drone. 

GoPro's outlook calls for $600 million to $650 million in revenue and an adjusted profit per share of between $0.25 and $0.35 for the fourth quarter. Analysts were holding out for earnings of $0.46 a share on roughly $675 million in revenue. 

Zooming in for a close up

The midpoint of GoPro's range suggests 43% in top-line growth for the current quarter and a return to profitability. That would be applause-worthy if the fourth quarter that it's being pitted against wasn't so dreadful. Compare GoPro's midpoints of a profit of $0.30 a share and $625 million in revenue to the $0.74 a share in earnings and $633.9 in revenue it delivered during the fourth quarter of 2014, and we see how far GoPro has fallen. The two-year decline on the top line may not seem like much, but keep in mind that this time around GoPro has a drone to sell, and it still may not be enough to beat the Hero4's first holiday quarter. 

Wall Street seemed to take the miss in stride. Analysts at J.P. Morgan and Wedbush stuck to their ratings on GoPro, but they did dramatically shave their price targets on the out-of-favor stock. 

One of the things that had weighed on GoPro in recent weeks, the lack of direct availability through (AMZN -0.59%), appears to have been rectified. GoPro revealed during its earnings call that it's back online with Amazon. However, checking the site on Saturday night finds it "temporarily out of stock" without having to go through a third-party vendor. The Karma drone isn't listed at all. 

GoPro sees a return to adjusted full-year profitability next year. It's also forecasting double-digit revenue growth in 2017, but that doesn't guarantee it will top the $1.62 billion it served up when its performance peaked last year. GoPro may be resolving its availability issue on Amazon, but there are still a lot of question marks on GoPro as it heads into the critical holiday shopping season.  

Rick Munarriz has no position in any stocks mentioned. The Motley Fool owns shares of and recommends and GoPro. The Motley Fool has the following options: short January 2019 $12 calls on GoPro and long January 2019 $12 puts on GoPro. We Fools may not all hold the same opinions, but we all believe that considering a diverse range of insights makes us better investors. The Motley Fool has a disclosure policy.

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