What happened

Shares of Moderna (MRNA 2.73%) were rising 3.3% as of 10:59 a.m. EDT on Monday. This gain came after the Financial Times reported new forecasts from health data analytics company Airfinity that project Moderna's COVID-19 vaccine could generate sales of $38.7 billion in 2022.

So what

Investors might be justified in jumping aboard the Moderna train if Airfinity's 2022 estimate is right. Sales of $38.7 billion would give the vaccine stock a forward price-to-sales multiple of less than 3.5. That's an attractive valuation if Moderna can continue generating sales in the same ballpark going forward.

A healthcare professional holding a syringe with needle and a vaccine vial.

Image source: Getty Images.

However, those assumptions require a giant leap of faith. Airfinity's sales projection is much higher than those of other analysts. The consensus Wall Street revenue estimate for Moderna in 2022 is $20 billion. Also, there remains considerable uncertainty about how strong recurring revenue for COVID-19 vaccines will be after the pandemic ends.

Now what

There's one key thing to watch to see if the super-bullish outlook for Moderna's 2022 sales is even in the realm of possibility. Keep your eyes on all supply agreements that the company locks up going forward. So far, Moderna's supply deals are much closer to revenue next year being in line with the consensus estimate than Airfinity's estimate.