Tesla (TSLA +3.14%) has taken a hit recently. The stock has slid 16% since the beginning of November, even as the S&P 500 rose more than 2% over that same timeframe.
But despite the stock's bearish trend recently, one analyst thinks the electric-car maker's shares will soar over the next 12 months. The analyst's updated price target for the stock calls for an impressive 55% upside from where shares closed on Friday. Based on Tesla's share count today, this implies a $1.6 trillion market capitalization.
Here's why this analyst is so bullish.
Tesla factory. Image source: The Motley Fool.
55% upside?
Last Wednesday, New Street analyst and longtime Tesla bull Pierre Ferragu boosted his 12-month price target on Tesla stock from $1,290 to $1,580.
Ferragu justifies his price target with a view for record fourth-quarter deliveries, impressive production rates at the company's factory in Shanghai, huge revenue growth next year, and more.
Starting with Ferragu's estimates for Tesla's fourth-quarter deliveries, he says that the electric-car company's deliveries could come in as high as 280,000 to 285,000 in Q4. The midpoint of this range would imply 56% year-over-year growth and 17% sequential growth -- an impressive feat in a supply constrained environment. This would put total deliveries for the year at 910,000, or about 87% higher than last year.
The analyst also thinks that Tesla's total revenue next year can approach $80 billion. This is about $9 billion higher than the current consensus analyst estimate calls for. Notably, Ferragu believes that Tesla is now producing electric vehicles at its factory in China at an annualized rate of more than 700,000 -- well above what Tesla initially said the factory would do. Adding this production to Tesla's factory in Fremont and the company's new factories in Texas and Germany will help sales soar next year, the analyst believes.
Valuation may be the biggest risk facing Tesla investors
But the riskiest part of this thesis may be Ferragu's view on the high valuation he believes Tesla stock will command. Ferragu thinks Tesla can trade at 50 to 100 times earnings for the foreseeable future. While the electric-car maker definitely deserves to trade at a multiple like this today, based on the company's strong growth prospects, there's always a chance that growth slows materially in the future. If growth does slow materially over the next five years, Tesla's price-to-earnings ratio could fall below Ferragu's target range.
Further, investors should note that Tesla has a price-to-earnings ratio of over 300 today. So there's already huge growth priced in from the electric-car maker. Of course, analysts agree that earnings are about to soar. On average, analysts believe that Tesla's earnings per share will increase at an average annualized rate of 73% over the next five years.
So while Tesla stock is looking more attractive after its recent sell-off, there are still risks to owning shares -- particularly when it comes to the stock's sky-high valuation. Tesla will need to keep executing extremely well over the long haul in order for its stock to be an outperformer from this level.
