Pinterest (PINS -1.25%) is slated to report its fourth-quarter and full-year 2021 results after the market close on Thursday, Feb. 3. A conference call with analysts is scheduled for the same day at 4:30 p.m. ET.
Investors in the visual-based social media company will probably be approaching the report on a mixed note, though apprehension might predominate. The number of U.S. users -- who are more profitable to the company than international users -- has been under pressure stemming from the broad reopening of the economy. Moreover, in 2022, tech-related stocks have been particularly struggling because investors anticipate the Federal Reserve will soon begin raising interest rates.
That said, there's a reason for optimism: The company has comfortably beat Wall Street's consensus earnings estimate in the first three quarters of 2021.
Pinterest stock got a big pandemic-driven boost in 2020, and then fell back down to Earth in 2021. Since Jan. 1, 2020, shares have performed about in line with the broader market, through Jan. 28, 2022. (Stock chart below.)
Here's what to watch in Pinterest's upcoming report.
Image source: Getty Images.
Pinterest's key quarterly numbers
Following are the company's results from Q4 2020, its Q4 2021 guidance, and Wall Street's consensus estimates to use as benchmarks.
| Metric | Q4 2020 Result | Pinterest's Q4 2021 Guidance | Wall Street's Q4 2021 Consensus Estimate | Wall Street's Projected Change (YOY) |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue | $705.6 million | Growth in the high-teens percentage range | $828.4 million | 17% |
| Adjusted* earnings per share (EPS) | $0.43 | N/A | $0.46 | 7% |
Data sources: Pinterest and Yahoo! Finance. *"Adjusted" is synonymous with "non-GAAP"(generally accepted accounting principles). YOY = year over year. Note: Pinterest didn't issue earnings guidance.
For context, in the third quarter, Pinterest's revenue surged 43% year over year to $632.9 million. That result slightly beat the Street's consensus estimate of $631.2 million and was in line with the company's guidance of growth in the low 40-percentage range. Adjusted net income was $190.5 million, or $0.28 per share, up 115% from $0.13 per share in the year-ago period. That result comfortably exceeded the $0.23 per share analysts had been expecting.
Key user stats
Pinterest's revenue is determined by two metrics: the number of global monthly active users (MAUs) and global average revenue per user (ARPU), which reflects the advertising rates it achieved.
As with the last few quarters, the company is facing tough comparables on the user front, especially in the United States. People were still largely staying at home much more often than usual in the fourth quarter of 2020, as COVID-19 vaccines didn't start rolling out in the U.S. until the very tail end of 2020.
Last quarter, global MAUs edged up just 1% year over year to approximately 444 million. U.S. MAUs declined 10% to 89 million, while international MAUs rose 4% to 356 million.
Also last quarter, global ARPU jumped 37% year over year to $1.41. Growth was driven by a 44% rise in U.S. ARPU to $5.55 and an 81% surge in international ARPU to $0.38. So last quarter, one U.S. user contributed as much to Pinterest's revenue as did 14.6 international users.
In last quarter's earnings release, the company provided the following numbers as of Nov. 2 (about one month into the fourth quarter): U.S. MAUs of about 89 million (flat with the third quarter) and global MAUs of about 447 million. From these numbers, we can conclude that international MAUs were about 358 million.
Data by YCharts.
First-quarter 2022 guidance
The market's reaction to Pinterest's report will probably hinge considerably on the company's guidance, relative to Wall Street's expectations, along with the number of U.S. users.
So investors should know that for the first quarter of 2022, analysts are modeling for revenue to increase 18% year over year to $574.6 million and adjusted EPS to rise 27% to $0.14.
