My three stocks to avoid column for last week got off to a brutal start. The three names I figured were going to move lower for the week -- GameStop (GME +3.88%), Chewy (CHWY +0.20%), and AMC Entertainment (AMC +3.15%) -- soared on Monday. All three stocks would go on to decline over the final four trading days of the week, but only one of them fell enough to offset the initial Monday pop. GameStop, Chewy, and AMC Entertainment rose 15%, fell 11%, and climbed 9% last week, respectively, averaging out to a hearty 4.3% increase.
The S&P 500 rose a mere 0.1% for the week, so I fell well short on my stocks to avoid. The S&P 500 has still outperformed my bearish picks -- meaning that I beat the market, as these are stocks I suggest investors avoid -- in 18 of the past 24 weeks, but I've been off the past couple of weeks. This week, I see Walgreens Boots Alliance (WBA +0.00%), Lamb Weston (LW +1.79%), and Grocery Outlet Holding (GO +1.53%) as stocks that you may want to consider steering clear from. Let's go over my near-term concerns.
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Walgreens Boots Alliance
The drugstore giant inched lower after posting its latest quarterly results last week, hitting a fresh 52-week low by Friday. The market's may seem surprising at first glance. Walgreens Boots Alliance beat revenue expectations, and it also trounced bottom-line results by a double-digit percentage margin for the fourth quarter in a row.
The retreat finds Walgreens Boots Alliance popping up on the list of buy candidates for value investors. The stock is trading for less than nine times this year's projected profit and yielding a beefy 4.4%. However, at least four analysts lowered their price targets on the stock following the earnings call -- including an outright downgrade.
The concern here is that store traffic could take a hit now that folks aren't coming in for COVID-19 vaccines and testings. There are medium-term concerns about traditional prescription models getting disrupted, and we did see sales decline at the AllianceRx Walgreens unit in its latest quarter. The stock may seem cheap by conventional measuring sticks, but there are enough questions left unanswered to leave you wondering if this is a value trap.
NASDAQ: WBA
Key Data Points
Lamb Weston
We love fries, and Lamb Weston is a leading supplier of frozen potato, sweet potato, appetizer, and vegetable products to retailers and restaurant operators. Based out of Idaho -- of course -- Lamb Weston is the kind of stock that rarely makes an appearance on this list. It's profitable, and it even pays out a dividend.
The rub is that this a challenging time to be a food company. Rising costs everywhere from growing wages to skyrocketing production and transportation costs are pushing inflationary forces higher. How much more are you willing to pay for name-brand fries?
We'll get a financial update when Lamb Weston reports financial results for its fiscal second quarter an hour before Thursday's market open. Analysts see revenue climbing 8% from the prior year's depressed results, and just 3% compared to the same fiscal period two years ago. Wall Street pros see a slight dip in year-over-year profitability, and that's par for the course, as earnings should decline for the third fiscal year in a row. Lamb Weston has also fallen short of analyst net income targets in two of the past four quarters, and those forecasts have been inching lower in recent weeks. In short, Thursday's report is highly unlikely to impress investors.
NYSE: LW
Key Data Points
Grocery Outlet Holding
A lot of companies that went public over the past two years are currently underwater, but that's not the case with Grocery Outlet Holding. The unique retailer that supplies a chain of contractor-operated discount grocery stores is up better than 50% since going public at $22 less 22 months ago.
Grocery Outlet lived up to the initial hype, and the 23% revenue growth it posted in 2020 was its strongest gain in years. However, with its top line declining last year -- even as its network of stores grew to more than 400 locations -- it's OK to have concerns. Still, Grocery Outlet isn't necessarily prone to the same inflationary concerns we have with Lamb Weston. It will find overstocks, closeouts, and clearance items to fill the shelves of its independent contractor-run stores. It could even be a beneficiary as shoppers forgo traditional supermarkets with full-service specialty departments to go bargain hunting with the ever-changing collection of marked-down offerings.
NASDAQ: GO
Key Data Points
There are still issues with the stock's lofty valuation and iffy business model. If you're looking for safe stocks, you aren't likely to find them in Walgreens Boots Alliance, Lamb Weston, and Grocery Outlet Holding this week.
