Investors endured another tough week on the markets last week. Both the Dow Jones Industrial Average (^DJI +0.24%) and the S&P 500 (^GSPC +0.26%) shed roughly 5% to put year-to-date declines at 23% and 17%, respectively.
Wall Street is worried about a potential recession on the way that could hurt corporate profits starting in the second half of 2022.
We'll get fresh insights into that possibility as companies issue earnings reports over the next few trading days. So let's take a closer look at the announcements on the way from Darden Restaurants (DRI 1.51%), Winnebago (WGO +2.37%), and CarMax (KMX 0.05%).
1. Darden's demand
Darden Restaurants updates investors on its fiscal fourth-quarter results on Thursday morning, and there are some big questions heading into that announcement The stock had been popular on Wall Street as a post-pandemic growth investment. Yet that optimism faded, especially after the company lowered its short-term sales and earnings outlook back in March.
NYSE: DRI
Key Data Points
This week's report will show whether Darden was right to predict just a modest growth slowdown even as inflation squeezes its customers. The chain might protect customer traffic trends by keeping prices low, but that approach would reduce profit margins.
The good news is that some peers, like Dave & Buster's, have described robust demand for dining today. Yet investors will be looking for strong sales growth, and solid earnings, for Darden's stock to begin outperforming the market again in 2022.
2. Winnebago's backlog
Winnebago will reveal dozens of metrics about its fiscal Q2 performance this week, but the most important might be its backlog.
The RV giant entered the period with a huge backlog of dealership orders, which normally would be considered an asset. The problem is that these orders reflect manufacturing challenges that could turn into lost revenue.
The RV market is also slowing, rival Thor Industries recently said, which puts Winnebago in a tough position. The company is aiming to accelerate production to meet its current demand and fill its backlog. But it must do this carefully so that it doesn't end up with a big excess inventory holding when growth rates slow.
Winnebago has navigated through slowdowns in the past, and it is likely to handle any pullback without a series threat to the business. Yet investors are still worried about risks like collapsing profit margins over the next few quarters.
3. CarMax's profit margin
Selling conditions aren't as positive in the used-car industry as you might think they are simply by following prices. CarMax said in its last earnings report that consumers are becoming more cautious in their spending, in fact, which contributed to declining volumes.
Friday's announcement will provide a key update to that growth trend. Watch for CEO Bill Nash and his team to stress CarMax's market share as a way to cut through the noise around swinging demand trends. That metric improved to over 4% in the last fiscal year and CarMax is hoping to reach above 5% of the fragmented industry over time.
Meanwhile, the chain could see weaker earnings in the upcoming fiscal year as it focuses on growth and invests in its multichannel selling model. The stock is likely to remain under pressure until investors can see an upcoming end to that profit pressure.
