InMode's (INMD -2.36%) shares are down around 60% so far this year, and its shareholders are having a very bumpy ride. However, it might not be difficult much longer. The medical-device manufacturer will report earnings for the second quarter on July 28, and all eyes are going to be on how it's navigating the stormy waters of the global economy.
The trouble is, there's so much going on that the company's stock is liable to be impacted by multiple forces. Some will support its growth and others will pressure its returns downward. Let's analyze the most important issues facing InMode right now to get a sense of how these factors might play out over the rest of the year and beyond.
Will supply chain issues keep denting margins?
InMode develops devices that plastic surgeons and medical aestheticians use to provide outpatient and relatively non-invasive beauty treatments like skin tightening, muscle toning, and fat-deposit liquidation. The advantage of its systems are that they're less invasive than plastic surgery, so it's easier to get patients to commit to being treated.
When the hardware inevitably needs replacement parts, maintenance, or new tool heads that provide clinicians with additional functionalities, InMode pockets a bit of recurring revenue on top of its primary unit sales. But getting those pieces to customers has been recently more challenging than expected.
The first of the two headwinds that InMode might face is familiar to investors who saw its Q1 update. Shipping costs are rising, and its supply chain is more tenuous than desired. These challenges caused its gross margin to fall from 85% in the first quarter of 2021 to 83% in the same period this year.
That's hardly a large impact, but it could potentially grow worse or continue to be troublesome, given that both the global shipping industry and supply chains continue to face disruption caused by the pandemic. Management's sneak peek of Q2 earnings isn't much help in figuring out which way the issue is breaking as its guidance calls for a quarterly gross margin between 83% and 85%. The good news for investors is that with such a wide gross margin, it can get compressed by more than anyone is expecting and still be quite strong.
The other potential headwind is that over the past year, InMode's selling, general, and administrative expenses (SG&A) and its research and development (R&D) expenses have risen as a proportion of the company's quarterly revenue. If these costs continue to rise proportionately, it'll put more pressure on margins, and that could lead to slower earnings growth.
It should be emphasized, however, that those rising costs aren't going to be a big problem if they lead to significant new top-line growth. And management's recent decision to hike its 2022 revenue guidance from a high of $425 million to a high of $435 million suggests that it expects at least some return for the spending. Therefore, the rising spending could be a potential headwind or a potential tailwind, depending on how much new business the company can squeeze from it.
Rising consumable sales could help
Aside from the possible tailwind of increasing costs, the second potential tailwind is that customers appear to be buying more of InMode's consumables to use with their devices. Last quarter, the company reported that its sales of consumables and services grew by 79%, compared to the same quarter in 2021, reaching $14 million. That's a positive sign as it implies customers are using their devices with more of their clients.
If such a trend is confirmed by InMode's Q2 earnings update, investors can expect the company's base of recurring revenue to grow significantly over time. Each new device that gets installed in an aesthetic-medicine office offers a long tail of potential inflows from sales, and the only question is how much. Further investments in R&D will likely continue to yield new accessories for customers, and that will open the door for more sales in the future as well.
Once again, the issue is complicated because rising shipping costs could offset the earnings growth enabled by rising demand for consumables, and it is even possible that it could drag the margin down further. In an unlikely worst-case scenario, InMode could lose money on its shipments of consumables as it continues to penetrate international markets.
Overall, InMode's upcoming tailwinds are probably going to win out over the headwinds in terms of the stock's direction. The disruption to global shipping should abate over time, and rising SG&A expenses are likely an intentional and profitable move aimed at gaining traction in new markets, especially in Asia. Plus, with increasing income from recurring sources like consumables and maintenance, there's a lot to like about the company's near-term future.
