Novavax (NVAX +1.85%) shares crashed last year after the COVID-19 vaccine maker disappointed investors more than once. The company -- an early favorite in the vaccine race -- won emergency authorization later than rivals. That was due to manufacturing troubles.
The late arrival to market meant Novavax lost out on initial demand for the vaccine. And that set the company behind on winning and fulfilling orders. Novavax revised its annual sales forecast lower during the most recent earnings report. But a big transition lies ahead. Novavax's Chief Executive Officer Stanley Erck is retiring. Does the entrance of new leadership make this struggling stock a buy after losing 92% in 2022? Let's find out.
A positive move
Erck will hand over the reins to former Harmony Biosciences CEO John C. Jacobs later this month. The move could be a positive one for Novavax. With Jacobs at the helm, Harmony brought its sleep disorder drug Wakix to market back in 2019 and led it successfully through the early-sales growth stages. Wakix sales last year surged 91%. And in the most recent quarter, they continued to climb in the double digits.
Jacobs has helped Harmony progress on a three-pillar growth strategy, which includes maximizing commercial performance of Wakix, expanding Wakix indications, and acquiring new assets.
NASDAQ: NVAX
Key Data Points
Now you might be ready to ask me: What does all of this mean for Novavax? It means Jacobs -- with this experience -- may be just the right person to lead Novavax right now.
Jacobs' recent role in the launch of Wakix and his efforts to expand indications of that product may be particularly useful as he joins Novavax. That's because Novavax, too, is building its business through the growth of its first product. And down the road, Novavax will have to expand beyond it.
Novavax depends on its COVID-19 vaccine and is working to expand its label for boosting. The goal is to gain authorization for its use as a booster across age groups and for those who've had another primary series.
A combined coronavirus/flu shot
Novavax is also working on a combined coronavirus/flu shot candidate. The company just launched a phase 2 trial in December. The combined shot could be big if all goes smoothly. That's because the population that usually goes for a flu vaccine may easily switch to an annual jab that will protect against flu and the coronavirus.
So, it looks like Jacobs could be the right person to lead Novavax into this new phase of development.
Finally, new leadership may spur some investors who lost faith in the biotech company to give Novavax a second chance. The company, in announcing the CEO appointment, said Jacobs will bring in "a fresh perspective."
But does the CEO transition make Novavax a buy? The shares climbed 11% in one trading session following the announcement. Clearly, some investors were happy about the news. And, as I mentioned above, I'm optimistic about Jacobs in the role.
The vaccine is set to bring in revenue next year even if it's less than some might have hoped. And with the combined candidate, Novavax may have the ticket to big market share down the road.
Novavax's science has proven strong so far too. The vaccine showed excellent safety and efficacy results during clinical trials. And the combined candidate's trial results are positive so far. Prior to the pandemic, Novavax's flu vaccine candidate also met primary endpoints in a phase 3 study.
Novavax's struggles
But Novavax's struggles through the manufacturing ramp-up and slowness in entering the commercial stage remain a dark spot. And this year, the coronavirus market is transitioning to a private market. That means companies will sell doses to drug distributors instead of to governments. This adds a bit of uncertainty to the picture -- even for bigger players.
In an article I wrote recently, I mentioned not seeing near-term news that could boost the stock. I didn't foresee the CEO transition. This could be an element to trigger gains once we see some progress under Jacobs' leadership.
I still say this stock is best left to aggressive investors right now. But the rest of us should keep an eye on what's to come. A bit more visibility on sales ahead and strategy could make this biotech player a buy in the new year.
