Whatever your investing approach and risk tolerance, envisioning your stock gaining 1,000% in 10 years sounds enticing. Many stocks have done it, although they're a rare breed. In almost every case, there were steps backward for every step forward. That means if you want to see those kinds of gains, you need to have a long-term mindset, and you need to learn how to ride through the bear markets -- like the one investors have been experiencing of late -- and keep your eye on the goal.
The good news is, it doesn't take too many top picks to make up for any mediocre picks. In his most recent letter to shareholders, Warren Buffett explained that his extraordinary success as a money manager amounted to just a few good decisions that bore fruit over time. He admitted he's made poor decisions as well, but those fade away, and the good decisions make up for them.
Keeping those nuggets in mind, one stock I could see 10x-ing in 10 years is Global-e Online (GLBE 3.82%). Here's why.
A service that every online retailer needs
Global-e provides cross-border shipping solutions for e-commerce retailers. It's a fairly simple model, but it provides wide benefits for clients. The pandemic accelerated digital adoption, and now more retailers are in need of these kinds of services. Inflation may also be increasing the need for globalization as retailers look to squeeze out sales wherever they can find them. Global-e's services therefore become necessary in any kind of economic environment, giving it resilience.
Sales increased 69% year over year in the 2022 fourth quarter, closing out a year of robust growth. Meanwhile, its net loss increased from $22 million to $28 million, but adjusted earnings before interest, taxes, depreciation and amortization (EBITDA) almost doubled from $11.8 million to $22.8 million. Amortization of warrants related to an investment from Shopify continued to drag down profits, but these will be fully amortized by 2025.
I would point out two other things to notice about the loss. First, although it has increased year over year, it's much improved sequentially.
GLBE Net Income (Quarterly) data by YCharts
Second, revenue growth is far outpacing any increase in losses. If that continues, it should lead to scaling and profitability.
A long list of global partners
Shopify is an integral partner to Global-e, not just from its investments in the business, but in its integration of Global-e's platform as an option for its thousands of merchant clients. This is an ongoing process, and should provide years of sales growth for Global-e.
Besides Shopify, Global-e's partners look like a laundry list of top global retailers, and it consistently adds new ones all the time. In the fourth quarter, it added All Saints, Cuts Clothing, and a Katy Perry-branded shoe label. It also launched a new EU web presence with longtime client Walt Disney, and it added new fashion houses from longtime client LVMH.
Last year, it acquired competitor Borderfree, which itself provides services to a long list of world-recognized brands like Saks Fifth Avenue and Macy's.
A classic growth stock
Global-e stock is still down 65% from its highs in 2021, but it's up 37% this year so far. Shares trade at almost 11 times trailing 12-month sales. It seems ironic to call that expensive when growth stocks were trading for price-to-sales (P/S) ratios of 50 or higher just over a year ago. But valuation is often relative. Objectively, a P/S ratio of 11 looks rich, and it might be for the current market. But it's close to the cheapest Global-e stock has traded for since coming onto the market.
GLBE PS Ratio data by YCharts
Also, valuation has to be considered within the broader context of a company's performance and opportunities. Investors are usually willing to pay a premium for a stock that has enormous potential.
Global-e is demonstrating resilience, high growth under pressure, and improving profitability. It has huge market opportunities as it expands its client list, and sales are likely to skyrocket even higher when the economy improves and the world moves even further toward digitalization and globalization. I think there are compelling reasons to believe Global-e stock could 10x in 10 years.
