On paper, drugmaker AbbVie (ABBV +3.83%) isn't having the best year. The company recently lost patent exclusivity in the U.S for its biggest cash cow, immunology medicine Humira. This product has been the key asset for AbbVie over the 10 years since it split from Abbott Laboratories, so this is a big deal.
But even if AbbVie is nearly synonymous with Humira, can the company rise above this massive headwind and deliver solid returns to investors over the long run? To answer that, let's examine how things might unfold for AbbVie over the next five years.
NYSE: ABBV
Key Data Points
Revenue growth should rebound, eventually
Humira generated peak annual sales of $21.2 billion last year. The first biosimilar for the medicine to be launched in the U.S. hit the market in late January. Considering that Humira alone made up about 37% of AbbVie's total revenue in 2022, it's not surprising that management expects its top line to decline for the next couple of years. Investors just got a taste of this dire situation when AbbVie released its first-quarter results.
But it isn't rare for drugmakers to see their revenue move in the wrong direction when dealing with patent cliffs. AbbVie has known for a long time that it had to prepare for life after Humira. The company's lineup should allow it to return to growth by 2025, partly thanks to a duo of immunology medicines, Skyrizi and Rinvoq, that will pick up much of Humira's slack.
These therapies largely overlap with many of Humira's indications and have even proven, in some cases, to be more effective. Here's one example. In a head-to-head clinical study of Skyrizi and Humira in patients with plaque psoriasis, the winner was Skyrizi, which allowed patients to achieve clear skin more often.
Many of those currently taking Humira will likely switch to some biosimilar version, but Skyrizi and Rinvoq continue to earn indications and grow their revenue. That won't stop in the next five years. Management expects these two products to surpass Humira's peak sales by 2027.
However, there's more to AbbVie's business, as it has several other promising products. One of them is Qulipta, which first earned approval in 2021 as a preventive treatment for migraine. Earlier this month, Qulipta won a label expansion in targeting chronic migraine. It also proved effective in a phase 3 trial in treating this debilitating condition in patients with prior treatment failure.
AbbVie's Botox franchise has been performing well, too, and should continue to see its sales grow over the next five years.
Expect brand-new products
In addition to its current lineup, AbbVie expects to launch new products over the coming few years that will help strengthen its business and drive stronger top-line growth. The drugmaker's pipeline features dozens of ongoing programs, many of which are existing medicines seeking label expansions. But some are entirely new clinical compounds.
One is telisotuzumab vedotin (Teliso-V), a potential therapy for non-small cell lung cancer (NSCLC). Teliso-V targets a group of NSCLC patients with overexpression of c-met (a type of protein), a small niche for which there currently is no specific therapy. The U.S. Food and Drug Administration awarded it the breakthrough designation, which is reserved for medicines that would be an improvement over existing treatment options. The therapy is currently undergoing a phase 3 clinical trial.
Another product for which AbbVie could earn approval relatively soon is RGX-314, which it's developing in collaboration with Regenxbio. RGX-314 is a potential gene therapy for wet age-related macular degeneration, an eye disease that causes blurred vision.
This highlights yet another way AbbVie could expand its lineup: by entering into strategic collaboration agreements with smaller drugmakers that have promising programs under their belts.
Still a terrific dividend stock
One of AbbVie's biggest selling points is the company's dividend history. It's in the exclusive club of Dividend Kings, having raised its payouts for 51 straight years (including its time as part of Abbott Labs). That isn't about to change.
Although revenue will drop for a little while, AbbVie is committed to rewarding its shareholders with dividend increases. With a cash payout ratio of about 41%, it has room to sustain more hikes. So expect AbbVie to still be a Dividend King in five years.
The company's business remains strong, even with Humira's biosimilar threat. That makes it a solid stock to buy and hold through the next half-decade and beyond.
