Nvidia (NVDA 1.63%) just provided a financial guidance update for the ages. Propelled by surging demand for the hardware required to support generative artificial intelligence (AI) systems like ChatGPT, Nvidia's data center sales are booming.
In its fiscal 2024 first quarter (ended April 30), it booked revenue of $7.2 billion, but in fiscal Q2, it expects a massive surge to $11 billion due to skyrocketing demand for its chips and software to power AI.
Based on that guidance, adjusted net income will be about $4.9 billion in the current quarter alone. At its last peak in fiscal 2022, Nvidia's adjusted net income for the entire year was just $11 billion. Suffice it to say, this is a big deal.
Nvidia's share price is up a whopping 167% so far in 2023. After such a tremendous surge, there's at least one good reason for some investors to think that selling might make some sense. But there's also an excellent reason to hold onto this top semiconductor stock.
One reason to sell Nvidia stock right now
There's one simple reason to not buy Nvidia stock now -- or even to sell at least some shares if you already own it: The company itself isn't buying.
Nvidia had returned over $8 billion to shareholders over the last year via its stock buyback plan. As of the end of April, $7.2 billion was left remaining in its share repurchase authorization. However, Nvidia didn't buy back any stock in its fiscal first quarter.
The buybacks might be on pause for now because Nvidia stock is "expensive," trading at 50 times forward expected earnings per share. Previously, management executed well -- it was buying the dip last year during the worst of the semiconductor industry's downturn. Now that business is rolling again and there's optimism about chipmakers on Wall Street, Nvidia might be waiting until there's a pullback in the stock.
Admittedly, Nvidia could also simply have seen a more pressing need for that cash. After all, it had to secure extra chip supply with partners like Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing to meet the growing demand. Though Nvidia doesn't carry the expense burden of manufacturing semiconductors itself, it still needs to pay for their fabrication before it can book revenue by selling them to customers.
At any rate, if you're looking for a reason to take some profits, this might be it. Management itself isn't buying right now after the stock's epic take-off early this year.
One big reason Nvidia stock could still be a buy
Nvidia may not come cheap these days, but there's a good reason why. This already-massive company is only poised to get bigger. CEO Jensen Huang mentioned on the last earnings call that the world's existing data centers are worth around $1 trillion, and the semiconductors within them get refreshed about every four years. Today, most of the money spent on those rolling refreshes goes to new CPUs and other traditional chips.
However, with AI now capturing the spotlight, the GPUs (graphics processing units) and other accelerated computing chips that Nvidia specializes in will feature heavily in the infrastructure of these data centers. Nvidia's GPUs certainly won't capture all, or even a majority, of this new infrastructure spending. But the company could attract a big chunk of it.
Huang also admitted that the world has limited resources, so the upgrade won't happen overnight. He called it a 10-year process. Nevertheless, with so much money up for grabs, Nvidia could continue getting bigger, as its chips are now the centerpiece of a data center and AI computing in a market worth hundreds of billions of dollars a year.
Additionally, let's not forget Nvidia's subscription software library, which it often bundles with the sale of its chips. Earlier this year, CFO Colette Kress said Nvidia's quarterly software revenue was in the hundreds of millions of dollars, and growing quickly.
In sum, Nvidia created a brand-new AI hardware market, and we have no idea how big it will become. The stock may trade at over 50 times expected earnings now, but given how much bigger this business could get over the course of the next decade, don't expect a "cheap" valuation on this top chip stock anytime soon.
As is always the case with premium-priced stocks that have big potential, for those investors who want to buy, I preach prudence. Consider utilizing a dollar-cost averaging plan and buying shares in small batches over time.