Shares of Big Lots (BIG +0.00%) rose 6.9% through noon ET on Thursday after beating earnings this morning...sort of.
Heading into the third quarter, analysts had forecast the retailer would lose an adjusted $4.66 per share for the quarter. And yes, Big Lots did "beat" that forecast by losing only $4.38 per share. (Hurray?) The company also met the consensus sales forecast with $1.03 billion in merchandise sold in the quarter.
NYSE: BIG
Key Data Points
Big Lots sales and earnings
And yet, the news wasn't all bad. Counting a big $4.53 per share tax benefit recorded in the quarter, it turns out that Big Lots was actually able to report a net profit in Q3. When earnings are calculated according to generally accepted accounting principles (GAAP), the company's net profit amounted to $0.16 per share.
Combined with a smaller-than-expected non-GAAP loss, investors seem even more thrilled to hear about the net profit. That said, Big Lots still suffered a steep decline in sales in the quarter (15%), and same-store sales slid a similar 13%. So, the news was hardly unambiguously good.
Big Lots guidance
And to its credit, Big Lots owned up to that. Commenting on the quarter, CEO Bruce Thorn admitted that "the [retail business] environment remains challenging," although he insists the company is making progress in turning its business around.
Heading into Q4, Thorn says Big Lots is on track to deliver its "first quarter of year-over-year improvement in nearly three years." What's more, he thinks Big Lots can keep the momentum going all the way through 2024, cutting costs and boosting sales to grow bottom-line earnings by as much as $200 million on a run-rate basis toward the end of next year.
If he's right about that, such an improvement would be enough to (almost) bring Big Lots back to breakeven earnings. (Big Lots lost more than $200 million last year, after all -- $211 million, to be precise.) And even if he's wrong -- but close -- well, moving even closer to breakeven earnings would be a much better result than the $20 per share loss Wall Street is forecasting for Big Lots next year (according to consensus forecasts from S&P Global Market Intelligence).
Just the chance of that happening would probably justify at least some investor-buying of Big Lots stock today. And despite today's loss, I'm honestly not surprised to see that buying happen.
