Historically, few companies have demonstrated more millionaire-maker potential than Nvidia (NVDA 0.22%). The tech giant's shares have soared by more than 22,000% over the last decade, generating plenty of shareholder wealth in the process.
That said, with a market cap of $3 trillion, Nvidia is already the third-largest company in the world. Growing concerns about the sustainability of AI hardware spending raise questions about how much more it can realistically rise. Let's dig deeper to find out what the future may hold.
The AI hype cycle is getting long in the tooth
Since the launch of OpenAI's ChatGPT in 2022, tech giants have been scrambling to stay competitive in the market for large language models (LLMs), a type of AI algorithm that can create conversational responses based on a trained dataset. To this end, they have poured billions of dollars into purchasing Nvidia's cutting-edge graphics processing units (GPUs) to train and run these complex programs.
NASDAQ: NVDA
Key Data Points
For so-called hyperscalers like Alphabet and Amazon, this spending makes clear business sense because they can "rent out" their AI computing power to start-ups via their cloud computing platforms. However, for other major clients like Meta Platforms (which plans to spend $60 billion to $65 billion largely on AI-related capital expenditures), the potential returns for pouring so much money into Nvidia hardware look weaker.
Meta seems to be trying to stay relevant in an opportunity it has no clear way to monetize. And it might only be a matter of time before the company's shareholders push back against all this speculative spending, which could have otherwise been used for dividends or share buybacks.
Nvidia's operational momentum remains strong
While current AI spending may prove unsustainable in the long run, this challenge has yet to manifest itself in Nvidia's operational results. Third-quarter revenue jumped 94% to $35.1 billion based on massive demand for its high-end data center chips to train LLMs.
Despite selling hardware, its gross margin of almost 75% rivals that of many software companies, helping operating income roughly double to $21.9 billion in the third quarter.
Over the coming quarters, products based on Nvidia's new Blackwell GPU architecture promise to support continued growth and profitability. And so far, there is little evidence that the emergence of low-cost Chinese rival DeepSeek (which claims to have trained an industry-leading LLM on "primitive" H800 chips) is hurting demand for Nvidia's newest chips.
Some industry experts argue that DeepSeek may have inappropriately copied technology from U.S. rivals like OpenAI through distillation -- a process that involves transferring knowledge from a more advanced model to a smaller one. If true, this would suggest that Nvidia's cutting-edge GPUs still help create the most advanced LLMs, even if others later copy these models using cheaper chips.
Image source: Getty Images.
Its valuation is still attractive, but the upside looks limited
With a forward price-to-earnings multiple (P/E) of just 29, the stock is still surprisingly affordable, considering its incredible growth rate. For context, the Nasdaq-100 has an average forward P/E of 31 even though few, if any, of its members rival Nvidia's business expansion.
That said, with a market cap of $3 trillion, it is hard to see Nvidia generating multibagger returns from here, especially considering that current AI hardware spending may begin to diminish over time.
The stock's millionaire-maker days seem to be far behind it. And return-hungry investors should probably look for more under-the-radar ways to bet on the AI opportunity.
