Artificial intelligence (AI) is still a hot topic with market-moving powers, but the rising star of the moment is quantum computing. Experts in this field have seen their stock prices multiply in the last six months. As of March 13, shares of niche veteran IonQ (IONQ 0.80%) doubled in half a year, while smaller player Rigetti Computing (RGTI +0.15%) posted a 1,093% gain.
But I wouldn't buy either one of these skyrocketing market darlings today. They might be the superstars in the long run, but many things have to go right to reach that status. So far, they are deeply unprofitable business operations with minimal revenue streams, running on funds from stock sales or loans. And what happens if the next quantum computing research project turns up a lump of coal instead of a gold mine?
If and when that happens, I don't want to own Rigetti or IonQ stock. Mind you, I won't bet against them, either. Short-selling has unlimited downside risk if the target stock overcomes every hurdle and continues to deliver strong stock price gains.
But there are better ways to approach the quantum computing market with far lower risks. You may have noticed that the sector's massive market moves in recent months were based on news from Alphabet (GOOG 0.87%) (GOOGL 0.75%), Nvidia (NVDA 2.94%), and Microsoft (MSFT 0.43%). Any one of these tech titans would strike me as a better play on the quantum computing idea.
NASDAQ: GOOGL
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The one that started this boom
The sector surge started when Google Quantum AI (a subsidiary of Alphabet) developed a new quantum computing chip called Willow. I have covered the details of this technical achievement in depth, and it was indeed a big step forward. Pure-play quantum experts like IonQ and Rigetti started their price jumps with this event. This new computing method suddenly looked ready to take the world by storm.
But the Google team's original announcement made it clear that there's a lot of work left to do. Willow's sophisticated error correction merely "paves the way" to commercial-grade quantum computers. The headline-inspiring performance was a test of high difficulty but low commercial relevance.
The Willow chip fit the description of the second milestone in Google Quantum AI's six-step roadmap. It took five years to move from the first milestone to the second, and quantum computers won't offer game-changing performance until researchers crack the sixth milestone. I'm talking about millions of qubit processing units, up from about 100 in the Willow solution.
So, this overnight revolution will take time. As you can see, Alphabet is leading the way to these goals of commercial value and has ample resources to make a significant difference. Investing in this "Magnificent Seven" stock today will not only give you exposure to the AI boom and Google's online search and advertising prowess but also connect your portfolio to decades of quantum computing leadership.
NASDAQ: NVDA
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The one with the authority to slow things down
That brings me to Nvidia, another Magnificent Seven member with a large finger in the quantum computing pie.
The company's research focuses on connecting quantum computing devices to traditional computers, creating methods for controlling and reading the quantum machines in a mostly digital world. It's kind of like making user interfaces that connect people to traditional computers -- making effective connections between two entirely different models of data and knowledge.
So, when the semiconductor designer speaks up about the long-term prospects of quantum computing, people are listening. This is an established expert in the field with substantial business prospects in quantum computing. That's why Nvidia CEO Jensen Huang made a huge impact on the quantum boom in January when he suggested that the road to useful machines could be long.
"If you kind of said 15 years for very useful quantum computers, that'd probably be on the early side," he said at an industry conference. "If you said 30, it's probably on the late side. But if you picked 20, I think a whole bunch of us would believe it."
This perfectly reasonable statement slammed the brakes on soaring quantum stocks. IonQ shares fell 39% that day, and Rigetti's stock took a 45% price cut. As the Google Quantum AI team said in their full statement (which few people seemed to read), it'll be years before quantum computers become commercially useful and significantly better than old-school systems at useful tasks.
But Nvidia's quantum interface work will continue. Few companies nowadays have deeper pockets than this AI giant, so most upstarts will find it difficult to keep up with Nvidia's research and development efforts.
And it doesn't hurt that Nvidia's stock price is down 22% from January's all-time highs. The stock is still expensive but substantially more affordable than it was around New Year's. For that price, you get a leading name in a specific quantum computing field and the leading provider of AI accelerator chips.
NASDAQ: MSFT
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The one that put quantum computing back in the limelight
More recently, quantum stocks like Rigetti and IonQ perked up, thanks to big news from Microsoft.
Yes, that's another Magnificent Seven company with successful quantum computing research projects under its belt. In recent weeks, Microsoft presented a quantum computing chip called Majorana 1, featuring a brand-new hardware architecture. Without diving too deeply into technical jargon, Microsoft claims to have invented a new state of matter. This "topological state" can form stable and effective qubits, giving systems builders "a path to a million qubits."
Remember the million-qubit milestone I mentioned in the Google Quantum AI discussion? Microsoft says the new state of matter (not gas, liquid, or solid, but "topological") could produce such chips in a few years rather than decades.
Time will tell how accurate Microsoft's revised timeline is. This could simply be a normal step forward, dressed up in headline-writing neon lights, much like the benchmark test results of Alphabet's Willow chip. A long, gradual development process can look like a series of dramatic jumps and setbacks while it's happening.
Still, it's pretty clear that Microsoft also has a deep interest in quantum computing development, along with another ultra-rich bank account. This stock is also down more than 15% from recent highs. And just like Alphabet or Nvidia, Microsoft combines its quantum expertise with several established world-class business operations.
And that's not even close to a complete list of the massive tech titans exploring quantum computing in 2025. I find it hard to get excited about Rigetti's and IonQ's big gains when there are so many household-name alternatives in the same market.
