Shares of Starbucks (SBUX 1.06%) took a dive in April as the company got hit by President Trump's "Liberation Day" tariffs announcement, and then again at the end of the month after it reported underwhelming results in its fiscal second-quarter earnings report.
Unlike the rest of the stock market, which drifted lower over the remainder of April after Trump put a 90-day pause on some tariffs, Starbucks stock held relatively flat, as investors seemed to believe it was at risk of a recession and a trade war with China. The U.S. and China are its No. 1 and No. 2 markets, respectively.
As you can see from the chart, Starbucks followed the trajectory of the S&P 500 (^GSPC 0.61%)
for much of the month, but it fell more sharply at the beginning and did not make the same recovery at the end of April. Additionally, Starbucks sold off on the last day of April, as its earnings results underwhelmed.
According to data from S&P Global Market Intelligence, the stock finished the month down 18%.
Starbucks' struggles continue
Starbucks' decline at the beginning of the month wasn't a big surprise, as restaurant spending, especially at a place like Starbucks, is discretionary, making the company more vulnerable than most of the stock market to a slowdown.
Tariffs could also complicate Starbucks' business, though the cost of importing coffee beans seems manageable. The company said on the earnings call that green coffee beans, meaning unroasted, are 10%-15% of its product and distribution costs, and it has hedges build in to its purchasing model.
On the news front, most of April was uneventful until the earnings report came out on April 29.
Starbucks missed estimates on both the top and bottom lines, though management said the turnaround strategy was driving a recovery in the business. Comparable sales in the quarter fell 1%, and revenue declined 2%. However, that stability came at a price, as the company invested in additional labor to drive the "Back to Starbucks" strategy. Adjusted operating margin fell 460 basis points to 8.2%, and adjusted earnings per share were down 40% to $0.41.
Image source: Getty Images.
What's next for Starbucks?
CEO Brian Niccol brings a strong track record to the business, having come from Chipotle, and he deserves investor patience as the turnaround moves along.
The macro headwinds could pose an additional challenge to the recovery, but Niccol's optimism about the recovery shouldn't be overlooked.
