Electric carmaker Tesla (TSLA 0.12%) has had an eventful year, with its stock experiencing wild swings as investors try to factor in the struggles in the core EV business, the actions and comments of its controversial chief executive, and the excitement around future initiatives like robotaxis to determine a fair price for the stock.
Speaking of robotaxis, Bloomberg recently reported that Tesla plans to launch a small group of robotaxis in Austin, Texas, on June 12, the beginning of what Tesla asserts will eventually be a massive new business and stream of revenue. The event could also give investors information regarding how effective Tesla's self-driving technology is.
Should investors buy Tesla now in anticipation of the June 12 announcement?
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What's the big deal with robotaxis?
Tesla's core EV business has struggled this year, with the company only reporting 337,000 deliveries in the first quarter of the year, the lowest level seen in over two years. Whether due to CEO Elon Musk's involvement with politics, which seems to have come to an end, or increased competition, sales have struggled. Recent reports don't indicate much improvement in the second quarter of the year. Further, Tesla stock still trades at an extremely high multiple.
Data by YCharts.
The stock has been propelled by the company's future initiatives, which include the upcoming launch of cheaper EVs, robotaxis, and the Optimus humanoid robots that will supposedly be able to complete household chores. Robotaxis are the most exciting on tap, with the Austin launch reportedly just days away. According to media reports and analyst research reports, the Austin robotaxi launch will feature 10 to 20 Tesla Model Ys with human supervisors, and the vehicles will be geofenced, meaning they will only operate in certain areas of Austin.
However, Musk has also said there could be 1,000 units on the road within a few months. There are varying reports and data about how well Tesla's unsupervised full self-driving (FSD) technology works. Users have now tested FSD over billions of miles, and Tesla's management team claims FSD is safer than human driving.
However, some have suggested that the FSD technology is not as strong as Musk claims. Morgan Stanley analyst Adam Jonas recently told investors in a research note, "As is typical for highly anticipated Tesla events, we would keep expectations well contained for the (reported) June 12th Cybercab launch event in Austin."
If Tesla's FSD turns out to be a success, Musk has plans to eventually launch Tesla's own ride-hailing fleet. "We have millions of cars that will be able to operate autonomously," Musk told CNBC a few weeks ago. "And I should say that it's a combination of a Tesla-owned fleet and also enabling Tesla owners to be able to add or subtract their car to the fleet, so that existing Tesla owners will be able to earn money by adding their car to the fleet for autonomous use."
NASDAQ: TSLA
Key Data Points
Should you buy the stock pre-Austin launch?
Investors will be watching the Austin debut closely to see if there are any mistakes by the FSD and how effective the technology is. I'm sure some analysts will soon have opportunities to try out the robotaxis. While the service could prove to be successful and generate tons of new revenue for the company, I still think investors are getting ahead of themselves. The technology may not be as strong as people think, and it remains unclear how quickly this business can scale.
With such a meteoric valuation, the market seems to already be baking in success of the robotaxis and other future initiatives like the Optimus robots. Long term, the odds of Tesla being a part of the robotaxi and autonomous driving wave remain high, but it is still early, and we don't know what the new autonomous driving sector will ultimately look like. For these reasons, I remain on the sidelines with investing in Tesla.
Whether you decide to go in on the stock before June 12, remember that a single event (in most cases) should not be the driving force behind any stock transaction. Foolish investing involves making buying and selling decisions based on the long-term thesis around a company rather than short-term events that could move a stock's price.
