The S&P 500 index, after two years of double-digit gains, has experienced some rocky times in recent months. Investors' concerns about how President Donald Trump's import tariffs may affect the economy and corporate earnings weighed heavily on the index in March and April, even briefly pushing it into a bear market. If tariff levels are high, they could result in rising prices -- and therefore costs -- for companies and individuals.
But Trump's recent initial trade deals with the U.K. and China offered investors hope that tariffs will be manageable, and that's helped the S&P 500 regain a significant amount of territory. The major benchmark has climbed 20% since its low in April.
Tom Lee, Fundstrat managing partner, has stuck with his prediction for S&P 500 gains for the full year and now says, with companies showing strength in recent times, he's even more confident the index will reach his forecast. Lee's forecast of 6,600 implies a 10% climb from the index's closing level on June 3.
How can you benefit from a rising S&P 500 this year? Let's find out.
Image source: Getty Images.
A "more achievable" goal
First, a quick note about Lee's forecast. The analyst, in an interview with CNBC earlier this week, said that while reaching 6,600 seemed complicated a few weeks ago, it now seems as if the index may be set to make it happen. "I think businesses are in better shape now than they were in February," he said in the interview. "So, I think making 6,600 actually seems more achievable today than it did in February."
In recent weeks, companies across industries have reported earnings for the first quarter of the year. Of the 98% of S&P 500 companies that reported as of May 30, 78% delivered a positive earnings-per-share surprise, and 64% announced a positive revenue surprise, according to FactSet. This has helped stocks advance, even as some elements of uncertainty remain in the market -- such as ongoing tariff discussions and mixed economic data. But if tariff or economic headwinds don't strengthen, the S&P 500 could continue to rise this year to reach Lee's forecast.
Now, there's one very easy way to score a win from this movement, and it doesn't involve much time or effort. Instead, it involves one simple purchase, the purchase of shares of a fund that tracks the S&P 500. A fantastic low-cost one is the Vanguard S&P 500 ETF (VOO +0.98%). This exchange-traded fund replicates the composition of the benchmark, setting it up to deliver an identical performance.
I call the Vanguard fund "low cost" because its expense ratio is only 0.03% -- ETF fees are expressed as expense ratios, and you should always choose one with a ratio of less than 1% so it won't hurt your long-term returns. This fund fits the bill by a long shot.
Betting on the benchmark
Investing in this or a similar ETF is a great way to bet on the S&P 500's performance because it offers you exposure to the entire benchmark with one simple operation. And this means you don't have to worry about assembling a basket of the most heavily weighted S&P 500 stocks to attempt to reflect the benchmark -- instead, this investment offers you exposure to the full index.
So, should you join in Tom Lee's optimism about the S&P 500 and buy shares of the Vanguard S&P 500 ETF now? It's a great idea, and here's why. If Lee is right, you'll set yourself up for gains in the near term. The positive corporate earnings we've seen at the start of the year along with an improvement in market sentiment in recent months could set the index on the right track. And any potential good news regarding the import tariff situation and the economy at any point in the coming months could offer further catalysts.
But here's the best news of all: History shows us the S&P 500 always has advanced over the long run. So, even if the S&P 500 doesn't make it to Lee's target by the end of the year, a purchase of an S&P 500 tracker today could offer you a major win down the road.
