Megacap technology companies have been some of the biggest movers and shakers in the stock market throughout 2025. Among the hottest stocks in the artificial intelligence (AI) realm is Nvidia (NVDA 0.87%), but it has been struggling this year.
While the graphics processing unit (GPU) king's market capitalization peaked early this year at nearly $3.7 trillion, a months-long slide that bottomed out in April shaved about $1.4 trillion off its value.
However, Nvidia stock has rebounded over the last month or so and has almost fully recovered from that decline.
Let's explore what drove the sell-off in Nvidia to begin with. From there, I'll explain why investor enthusiasm for the chip designer is on the rise and detail why I think the stock is poised for an epic breakout during 2025's second half.
From DeepSeek to tariffs, 2025 has been full of challenges for Nvidia
The chart below illustrates the fluctuations in Nvidia's market cap throughout 2025. The volatility in the stock in January and February was triggered by the emergence onto the scene of Chinese AI start-up DeepSeek.
NVDA Market Cap data by YCharts.
Initial reporting took DeepSeek management at its word when it asserted that it had developed its highly sophisticated R1 model at an incredibly low price relative to competing AI models, and had done so entirely with older Nvidia chip architectures that aren't widely used by U.S. developers anymore. This caused many onlookers to question just how essential Nvidia's most advanced GPUs would prove to be for AI development and training broadly, and whether demand for its new Blackwell series of chips would be as strong as had been projected.
As more information about DeepSeek emerged, however, it became clear that the company may not have been entirely upfront about how it trained its model, or what the the real cost of doing so was.
Investors came to recognize that the existence of DeepSeek might not represent a major threat to Nvidia's business after all. Yet its shares continued to slide. Why?
Well, throughout the month of March, investors were more or less guessing whether President Donald Trump would, in fact, impose heavy tariffs on America's trading partners -- something he had often promised to do while campaigning.
On April 2, Trump declared what he called "Liberation Day," unveiling steep new tariffs on goods imported from nearly every country in the world. His threatened tariffs on China, a market that Nvidia relies heavily on for growth, were particularly high.
In the wake of that news, Nvidia sank to its 2025 low.
Image source: Getty Images.
Why Nvidia's comeback could accelerate in the second half
As the stock chart above makes clear, investors appear to have hopped back onto the Nvidia train over the last several weeks. At a high level, one might suggest that developments in the trade negotiations between the U.S. and China may have eased investor tension.
While I understand that idea in theory, I think there is more to the picture. Despite the positive rhetoric from the White House about the status of its talks with China, Nvidia's management recently notified investors that the company will be excluding China from its financial guidance for the time being.
Instead, I see a couple of other reasons why investors may be piling back into the stock.
AI infrastructure is on the rise
You may recall that earlier this year, executives from Oracle, OpenAI, and SoftBank met at the White House to announce a large-scale infrastructure initiative called the Stargate Project.
The members of the joint venture intend to make a collective investment of $500 billion over four years into U.S.-based data centers and various other infrastructure specifically designed to support AI. Nvidia was named as a key technology partner in the project, along with Microsoft, Arm, Oracle, and OpenAI.
Elsewhere, the Kingdom of Saudi Arabia and the United Arab Emirates have begun their own Stargate-like initiatives, in which Nvidia has already become involved.
Diversifying the ecosystem
For most of its history, Nvidia has been known as a hardware business. What some investors may not realize, however, is that the company has been quietly diversifying its ecosystem for years.
For example, Nvidia has developed a software platform called CUDA that allows developers to program its GPUs for the specific uses they require and get the most out of their parallel-processing power. This integrated system has helped Nvidia become an end-to-end service provider for AI developers, as it offers industry-leading hardware and software. In addition, Nvidia has made a number of investments in recent years -- particularly in AI infrastructure leaders CoreWeave and Nebius Group.
I see these investments as highly strategic, as Nvidia is moving beyond designing hardware and software to become a critical player in AI data center construction, too. It has swiftly become a full-stack provider of AI services, making it harder for peers such as Advanced Micro Devices or custom silicon designers to catch up.
Taking this one step further, Nvidia's management has suggested that the company might use some of its robust and rising earnings to make acquisitions. While this is speculative, I think if Nvidia does pursue acquisitions, these deals will be focused on emerging areas such as robotics or autonomous driving that Nvidia could penetrate to diversify its business beyond its GPU and data center operations.
Where will Nvidia stock be by the end of the year?
Current analyst sentiment surrounding Nvidia stock suggests that shares could be headed for a breakout. With a market cap of more than $3.5 trillion, Nvidia has been trading the title of world's most valuable company back and forth with Microsoft over the past month.
The bigger idea I want to drive home is that the secular trends fueling AI infrastructure investment and Nvidia's ongoing efforts to expand beyond chip design are the core reasons I think the company will not only continue rising in value but actually sustain its lead over other megacap peers in the months ahead.
