Cameco (CCJ -1.64%) has gone through some very trying times in the past, largely due to its reliance on the price of a commodity when it comes to revenue and earnings. But the uranium that Cameco mines could be in for a big step change in price. Here are three reasons to buy this nuclear power industry supplier like there's no tomorrow.
1. Cameco is a picks-and-shovels nuclear play
Cameco mines for uranium, which is the primary fuel for nuclear power plants. It is also a minority owner in Westinghouse, a service provider to the nuclear power industry. Basically, it is a way to invest in nuclear power without having to buy it directly. If demand for nuclear power grows, Cameco should benefit right along with that growth.
Image source: Getty Images.
There is a risk here, however, because nuclear power has a history of large and very public disasters. Nuclear meltdowns, perhaps not shockingly, have led to a pullback in demand for nuclear power.
Right now, however, nuclear power is experiencing a bit of a renaissance. Notably, it doesn't produce greenhouse gasses, making it a clean energy source. And since nuclear power provides always-on (or base load) electricity, it can be paired with intermittent power sources like solar and wind to create a more reliable power grid.
All in all, Cameco's role in supporting nuclear power plants with fuel and services makes it a great way to play the nuclear power renaissance that is taking place today. And that's buttressed by the fact that its operations are largely in developed and politically stable markets, which customers appreciate just as much as investors should.
2. Demand for energy is growing
But the shift toward clean energy isn't the whole story. Demand for electricity is set to see a step change over the next 20 years or so. Between 2000 and 2020, U.S. electricity demand increased by a total of 9%. Between 2020 and 2040, demand is expected to grow by 55%. There are multiple drivers of that surge, notably including artificial intelligence (AI), data centers, and electric vehicles (EVs). Electricity use is expected to increase from 21% of final energy use to 32% by 2050.
Meanwhile, there are new nuclear plant designs and options coming to market that should make nuclear power more attractive. Safety is likely to improve, costs are likely to drop, and speed to market is likely to increase. All these factors will help to make nuclear a key part of the electric transition that is happening, which will likely mean more demand for uranium to fuel nuclear power plants.
3. Supply doesn't look like it will meet demand
So, Cameco supplies an industry that appears to be seeing increased demand. Those are two good reasons to buy the stock. But there's one more reason to consider: the difference between supply and demand. Starting in 2030, Cameco expects demand to start outstripping supply, leading to a supply gap.
That will likely result in more investment in uranium mining, of course. But the gap grows rapidly due to the lull in mine development that happened following the Fukushima nuclear plant meltdown in 2011. Building mines is time consuming, expensive, and difficult, so it seems unlikely that the supply gap will have an easy solution. And that means uranium prices are likely to remain strong, if not rise, over time as demand for the nuclear fuel grows.
A lot of reasons to like Cameco, but there's one big risk to keep in mind
There are multiple reasons to like Cameco as an investment. But it is really appropriate only for more aggressive investors. That's because of the significant risk hinted at above: nuclear meltdowns. If there's another event of this nature, the view of nuclear power could quickly sour and send uranium prices -- and Cameco's stock -- crashing. If you can't stomach that risk, then the three reasons to buy Cameco outlined above probably won't be enough to entice you to buy this stock today, tomorrow, or any day.
