Shares of Bloomin' Brands (BLMN 0.28%) plunged on Wednesday after the restaurant chain operator published second-quarter results. The financial numbers were solid, but management served them with a side of disappointing guidance for the next quarter.
Bloomin's stock was down 28.5% at 3:20 p.m. ET.
Crunching the Q2 numbers and Q3 targets
Bloomin's second-quarter revenues rose 0.3% year over year, landing at $1 billion. Adjusted earnings dropped from $0.51 to $0.33 per diluted share. The trends pointed downward, but analysts still expected worse. Your average Wall Street firm would have settled for earnings near $0.28 per share, on revenues in the neighborhood of $980 million.
But Bloomin's Q3 guidance set up some low near-term targets. The bottom line should show a net loss of at least $0.10 per share, versus the current analyst projection of a $0.05 profit per share.
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Can Bloomin' Brands cook up a Chili's-style comeback?
The company is taking notes from the Brinker International (EAT 6.71%) playbook, hoping to reignite lackluster customer interest with a simpler menu and friendlier dining experience. Those are the key ingredients in the Chili's parent's recent success recipe, and I don't mind watching rivals like Bloomin' following a similar path.
But the turnaround won't be easy. Bloomin's adjusted restaurant-level operating margin shrank from 14% to 12% over the last year. Carrabba's Italian Grill is doing OK, but same-store sales growth was flat in the flagship Outback chain and down 5.8% at the Bonefish Grill.
And Bloomin's management isn't acting with confidence right now. The company has an unused share buyback authorization of $96.8 million available. That's about 18% of the stock's current market value, so the buybacks could make a real difference for shareholders.
The bullish move would be to take a loan and use most of that buyback allowance while the stock is cheap -- Bloomin's shares are down by 63% over the last 52 weeks, after all. But the company didn't repurchase and retire any shares at all in the second quarter.
Bloomin' is a hometown hero in the Tampa Bay area, where the company is headquartered and these words were written. I sure hope for the best, but the lack of management courage scares me. So I'll largely watch this Chili's-style turnaround attempt from the sidelines.
