Microsoft (MSFT -0.16%) ranks as the second-largest company in the world, based on market cap. It's also one of the hottest large-cap tech stocks on the market. Only two members of the so-called "Magnificent Seven" stocks have delivered greater gains than Microsoft this year.
Meta Platforms (META -0.49%) is one of them. Outside of gaming, Meta's and Microsoft's paths have rarely intersected in the past. However, Meta's newest artificial intelligence (AI) initiative could change that. CEO Mark Zuckerberg's recent explanation of his company's strategy could even be interpreted as a warning shot fired across Microsoft's bow.
Image source: Getty Images.
Meta's dream
Less than two weeks ago, Zuckerberg described Meta's dream for superintelligence in a public statement. He said that Meta wants "to bring personal superintelligence to everyone."
What is superintelligence? It's similar to artificial general intelligence (AGI), which is defined differently by some but usually refers to AI that can learn and perform tasks at least as well as humans. Superintelligence goes further than AGI, though, with capabilities that far exceed humans.
Zuckerberg envisioned a future where every person has a "personal superintelligence that helps you achieve your goals, create what you want to see in the world, experience any adventure, be a better friend to those you care about, and grow to become the person you aspire to be." That sounds better than the dark predictions that AGI and superintelligence could eliminate many jobs and leave humans with little to do.
Is Meta's dream pie in the sky? Maybe not. The company seems to be making tangible progress toward developing superintelligence. Zuckerberg said:
Over the last few months we have begun to see glimpses of our AI systems improving themselves. The improvement is slow for now, but undeniable. Developing superintelligence is now in sight.
Microsoft investors' worst nightmare
Meta's superintelligence vision might not seem to affect Microsoft at first blush. However, note something else Zuckerberg said: "If trends continue, then you'd expect people to spend less time in productivity software, and more time creating and connecting."
Microsoft is practically synonymous with productivity software. Its apps, including Excel, Word, Outlook, PowerPoint, and Teams, all of which are now bundled into Microsoft 365, are used by millions of people across the world.
In the quarter ending June 30, 2025, Microsoft's productivity and business processes segment generated revenue of $33.1 billion. The segment is Microsoft's biggest moneymaker, contributing 43% of its total revenue.
Granted, some of Microsoft's productivity and business processes segment revenue stems from LinkedIn. The professional networking social media platform doesn't fall into the category of productivity software. While Microsoft didn't release a specific revenue figure for LinkedIn, external estimates of the platform's revenue indicate that it likely accounts for less than 15% of the productivity and business processes segment's revenue.
The bottom line is that any major slashing of productivity-software revenue and profits would arguably be Microsoft investors' worst nightmare. And Zuckerberg has predicted that Meta's superintelligence initiative will lead to a significant drop in the time people spend using productivity software.
Could Microsoft be in trouble?
Whether or not Microsoft's business could be jeopardized by Meta's superintelligence efforts depends, in large part, on how successful those efforts are. Skepticism on this front could be warranted. Technology executives have made predictions in the past that didn't come true.
However, I think there's another more important reason why Meta's superintelligence vision might not threaten Microsoft all that much. Note that Zuckerberg said that people would probably spend less time using productivity software; he didn't say that productivity software would be used less.
That's a critical distinction, because AI may continue to use productivity software. Microsoft itself is investing heavily in enabling AI to do many of the tasks that people have done in the past with its productivity software.
Is Meta's superintelligence dream Microsoft investors' worst nightmare? I don't think so. Instead, I expect both Meta and Microsoft to enable long-term investors to sleep peacefully for a long time to come.
