Could Investing $30,000 in Twilio Make You a Millionaire?

Twilio's (TWLO 7.45%) stock closed at a record high of $443.49 on Feb. 18, 2021. That was a 2,857% gain from the cloud-based software's company's IPO price of $15 on June 23, 2016, and it would have turned a $34,000 investment into just over $1 million.

But today, Twilio stock trades at around $95. That $34,000 IPO investment would still be worth over $215,000, but it surrendered its millionaire-making gains as the company's growth cooled off, it racked up steep losses, and it dealt with macro and competitive challenges. Could it bounce back and churn a fresh $30,000 investment into $1 million again over the next few years?

Image source: Getty Images.

What happened to Twilio over the past few years?

Twilio's cloud-based platform processes integrated text messages, calls, videos, and other communications features for mobile apps. Instead of building those features from scratch -- which can be buggy, time-consuming, and difficult to scale as an app grows -- developers can outsource them to Twilio's platform with just a few lines of code.

Twilio's platform supports some of the world's most popular apps from behind the scenes. If you've ever used Lyft's app to contact your driver or Airbnb's app to message your host, then you've used Twilio's platform. Its platform is also often used to send verification codes through text messages or phone calls.

Twilio initially grew like a weed after its public debut, and it acquired several of its industry peers -- including SendGrid, Segment, and Zipwhip -- to expand its reach and boost its revenue. But over the past three years, its revenue growth decelerated in both organic and reported terms.

Data source: Twilio.

That slowdown was caused by the macro headwinds, which drove many companies to rein in their cloud spending; challenging comparisons to the app market's pandemic-era growth, and tough competition from similar cloud-based communications platforms like MessageBird, Bandwidth, and Ericsson's Vonage.

Segment, the subscription-based customer data platform that Twilio acquired in 2020, also grew at a slower clip than its core business, which charges usage-based fees. Twilio's usage-based fees might help it reach a broader range of customers, but they arguably limit its pricing power and give it less room to cross-sell additional services.

On the bright side, Twilio's dollar-based net expansion rate (DBNER), which gauges its year-over-year revenue growth per existing customer, rose by a percentage point to 104% in 2024. That expansion indicates that Twilio's existing customers are still accessing its platform more frequently as their apps host more users -- even if they aren't locked into subscriptions. That figure rose to 107% in the first quarter of 2025 and 108% in the second quarter.

Twilio's growth cooled off, but it narrowed its net loss from $950 million in 2020 to $109 million in 2024 by laying off thousands of employees, reining in its spending, and pausing its acquisitions. Yet it was still besieged by activist investors as it lost its momentum, and its founder and CEO Jeff Lawson stepped down last January.

What will happen to Twilio over the next few years?

Lawson's successor, Khozema Shipchandler, focused on generating slower but steadier growth through Twilio's core communications (voice, messaging, and video) features instead of aggressively expanding its cloud-based ecosystem into adjacent markets. It will also continue to expand its smaller subscription-based Segment and Flex (contact center) services, but it probably won't make any more billion-dollar acquisitions over the next few years.

For 2025, Twilio expects its organic revenue to grow 9%-10%, its reported revenue to rise 10%-11%, and its adjusted operating income to increase 19%-22%. Analysts expect its reported revenue to rise 11% as its adjusted EPS grows 24%. For 2026, they expect its revenue and adjusted EPS to grow 8% and 15%, respectively.

Those growth rates are stable, and its stock still looks reasonably valued at 22 times its forward adjusted earnings. Analysts also expect to turn profitable on a generally accepted accounting principles (GAAP) basis in 2026 as it reins in its stock-based compensation expenses.

Could Twilio generate millionaire-making gains?

Assuming Twilio stabilizes its top-line growth, grows its adjusted EPS at a CAGR of 15% from 2024 to 2030, and still trades at 22 times earnings, its stock price would nearly double to about $187 per share. That rally could turn a $30,000 investment into $60,000 by the end of the decade -- but it wouldn't come close to replicating its millionaire-making gains from 2016 to 2021. So while Twilio might not mint any new millionaires, it could finally bottom out and climb higher again.