Where Will Opendoor Stock Be in 5 Years?

Opendoor (OPEN -9.17%), the top instant buyer (iBuyer) of homes in America, took its investors on a wild ride after it merged with a special purpose acquisition company (SPAC) on Dec. 21, 2020. Its stock started trading at $31.47, rose to a record high of $35.88 on Feb. 11, 2021, but sank to an all-time low of $0.51 on June 25, 2025.

At the time, it seemed as if Opendoor's stock could be delisted. But as of this writing, it trades at about $6.65 per share -- so a $1,000 investment at its record low would be worth more than $13,000 today. Will it keep rising and revisit its record highs over the next five years?

Image source: Getty Images.

What happened to Opendoor over the past five years?

As an iBuyer, Opendoor makes instant cash offers for homes, repairs them, and relists them on its own marketplace. It uses AI algorithms to price those offers and listing prices. Its business flourished when interest rates were low, and it experienced a major growth spurt during the post-pandemic housing boom in the second half of 2020 and 2021.

However, its growth stalled out in 2022 and 2023 as rising interest rates chilled the housing market. That shift drove Zillow (Z 2.25%) and Rocket's (RKT 1.06%) Redfin to both shut down their capital-intensive iBuying platforms in 2022 and surrender the nascent market to Opendoor.

Opendoor's business didn't warm up in 2024, even as the Federal Reserve cut its benchmark rates three times. But in the first half of 2025, its business gradually stabilized, its adjusted earnings for interest, taxes, depreciation, and amortization (EBITDA) margin improved, and it narrowed its net loss year over year from $201 million to $114 million.

Data source: Opendoor.

That stabilization was buoyed by steady interest rates and its fresh listing partnerships with home builders, real estate platforms, and agents -- which all reduced its dependence on its core iBuying platform. It's also upgrading its AI algorithms and expanding Opendoor Exclusives, a marketplace that directly matches its sellers to potential buyers.

Those new capital-light strategies, which don't require Opendoor to buy and renovate any houses, could help it generate more of its revenues from higher-margin commissions. As it expanded that ecosystem, it pruned its workforce, reduced its resale transaction costs and commissions, and streamlined its other expenses. Those efforts helped it narrow its net losses and finally achieve a positive adjusted EBITDA margin in the second quarter of 2025.

What will happen to Opendoor over the next five years?

It might seem like Opendoor is finally reaching a turning point, but it scaled back its home purchases again (down 63% sequentially and 51% year over year) in the second quarter of 2025. It also expects its revenue to drop 38% to 43% year over year in the third quarter as its adjusted EBITDA turns negative again. For the full year, analysts expect its revenue to decline 20% to $4.1 billion as its adjusted EBITDA improves from negative $142 million to negative $66 million.

Opendoor attributes that slowdown to elevated mortgage rates (which remain stubbornly high even after the Fed's rate cuts in 2024), affordability issues, and more sellers taking their properties off the market. It doesn't expect the housing market to warm up anytime soon, so it's reining in its purchases to avoid being stuck with more unsold properties.

But over the next few years, the housing market should heat up again. It's unclear when that will happen, but analysts expect Opendoor's revenue to rise 6% in 2026 and 16% to $5.1 billion in 2027. They also expect its adjusted EBITDA to turn positive in 2027.

With an enterprise value of $5.3 billion, Opendoor still looks dirt cheap at 1.3 times this year's sales. If it matches analysts' estimates, continues to grow its revenue at a CAGR of 10% from 2027 to 2030, and trades at a more generous four times sales, its stock could rise more than sixfold to about $40 and exceed its previous all-time high.

However, it would only achieve that growth if interest rates keep declining and the U.S. housing market recovers. If that doesn't happen, Opendoor could sink as it runs out of steam. I don't think this housing market malaise will drag on for five years, so its stock should gradually head higher again as more sellers and buyers return to the market.