Shares of Intel (INTC 7.24%) fell as much as 5% on Monday and, as of this writing, were down only about 3.2%. There didn't appear to be any new company-specific announcement driving the move. Rather, the decline appears to be a breather after a sharp September rally.
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Analyst caution meets a hot tape
One fresh input was a tempered analyst view for the stock: An analyst from Deutsche Bank reiterated a hold rating while setting a $30 price target (up from his previous target but still lower than where shares trade today). With the target below the current stock price, that stance can temper near-term enthusiasm and invite some profit-taking.
It comes on the heels of a powerful run fueled by policy support and high-profile partnership headlines (including a planned major investment by Nvidia) that raised hopes for an accelerated turnaround. After a burst like that, a giveback day like this is not unusual.
Valuation and the long view
Following the rally, shares no longer look cheap on near-term numbers. The stock's price-to-sales ratio is close to 3, up from about 1.8 a year ago. But if Intel performs a successful turnaround, shares aren't necessarily overvalued, either.
The longer-term case, therefore, still hinges on product road-map progress and the foundry strategy delivering competitive performance and better economics.
Still, with the stock up meaningfully in recent weeks, patience -- or at least a tighter margin of safety -- appears reasonable for investors weighing new positions.
