Apple (AAPL -3.40%) is a fantastic business, with a strong global brand, a history of innovation, huge profits, and a powerful ecosystem. This is a high-quality company, so much so that it remains Warren Buffett's choice as Berkshire Hathaway's largest position.
The stock has been a big winner, which should surprise absolutely no one. It's up 124% since early October 2020 (as of Oct. 8, 2025). But, past results aren't indicative of forward returns. So where will Apple shares be five years from now?
Apple might trail the market the rest of the decade
There are two key factors that could get in the way of Apple's stock continuing its winning ways and generating a market-beating return between now and the fall of 2030.
The first headwind is slower growth prospects. In the last three years, sales have increased by just 13%. It's hard to convince consumers to keep upgrading to the latest devices, especially with the lack of revolutionary new features.
Another headwind comes down to valuation. It's not controversial at all to say that Apple shares aren't cheap. They trade at a price-to-earnings ratio of 39.2, which is near a 10-year peak. The previously mentioned favorable qualities might mean the company is deserving of this valuation, but there's a good chance that the multiple contracts in the years ahead.
Investors should temper expectations over the next five years.
