The very first computer to make use of the bizarre and unintuitive properties of quantum mechanics was born out of a collaboration between major universities and International Business Machines (IBM +0.27%) nearly three decades ago. IBM has been making repeated use of the technology ever since and has now generated around $1 billion in bookings related to its quantum computing business.
With a roadmap that plots a course toward full scale, fault-tolerant quantum computers over the next decade, IBM's quantum computing business could be a major future growth driver for the technology giant.
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A strong quantum computing roadmap
Part of IBM's overarching quantum computing strategy is to pair quantum computers with classical computing techniques. A recent breakthrough made in collaboration with HSBC demonstrated the wisdom of this approach, with IBM's quantum computers used alongside machine learning to accelerate a process involved in bond trading.
IBM expects to definitively demonstrate quantum advantage, where a quantum computer outperforms a classical computer in a real-world task, by the end of 2026. By 2029, the company plans to build the first fault-tolerant quantum computer.
One key issue with quantum computing technology is the stability of the quantum bits used to perform calculations. Sufficiently mitigating or correcting errors is critical to performing real-world computations.
Once fault tolerance is solved, IBM expects to scale its quantum computers up to 2000 quantum bits in 2033 and beyond. The company expects its quantum computers to have real-world applications in security, chemistry, machine learning, and other areas once this milestone is reached.
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Key Data Points
While a roadmap isn't a guarantee, IBM's long quantum computing track record should give investors some confidence that the company can deliver. With the quantum computing market expected to grow to nearly $100 billion by 2035, according to McKinsey, IBM is building the foundation of a new multibillion-dollar business.
