Long gone are the days when Moderna (MRNA 2.33%) would generate over $18 billion in annual sales from its COVID-19 vaccine. Over the past couple of years, the company's revenue and earnings have plummeted along with its stock price.
Moderna is eager to prove its success wasn't just a one-off. And the company could achieve that goal in the next five years, leading to substantial stock-market returns over this period.
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Clinical progress could jolt the stock
Moderna's impressive work in the coronavirus market wasn't a fluke. The company's mRNA platform allows it to develop vaccines faster than traditional, non-mRNA ones. And partly thanks to the windfall it experienced from its COVID vaccine, Moderna ramped up research and development (R&D) spending and expanded its pipeline.
These efforts have already started to pay off. The company has recorded important clinical and regulatory progress lately. That includes the approval of its vaccine for the respiratory syncytial virus (RSV), mResvia.
NASDAQ: MRNA
Key Data Points
However, over the next five years, Moderna should see even more clinical wins for therapies that have far more commercial potential. One of the company's leading candidates is mRNA-4157, a personalized therapeutic cancer vaccine. In mid-stage studies, mRNA-4157 significantly reduced the risk of recurrence or death in melanoma patients when paired with Merck's Keytruda, compared to Keytruda alone.
mRNA-4157 is now undergoing a phase 3 study in this indication, but it's also being tested across many other types of cancer, including lung cancer, renal cell carcinoma, bladder cancer, and melanoma. This candidate's progress could power a strong streak of success for Moderna, leading to superior returns over the next five years.
Patience may pay off
Moderna has encountered some headwinds over the past couple of years. But the company's pipeline could get the stock out of trouble, as it allows the biotech to launch new candidates and generate significantly better financial results. The stock might not be performing well right now, patient shareholders could see significant gains down the road.
