Quantum computing investing has taken a step back since the market became a bit more risk-averse in October. Several quantum computing stocks have plunged from their all-time highs, including one of my favorites: IonQ (IONQ +9.73%). It was recently down around 35% from its peak established in October, but is it primed to make a comeback in 2026?
Let's see if IonQ could be a top stock in 2026, or if the trend of the past few weeks will carry over into the new year.
Image source: Getty Images.
IonQ's technology is different from most competitors'
Most quantum computing companies use a technique known as superconducting to power their devices. This requires cooling a particle to near absolute zero to slow its movements so they can be controlled in a computer.
This is the most popular technique and yields fast processing speeds, but it isn't the most accurate. The companies using this technique have yet to achieve 99.9% two-qubit gate fidelity, a measure of how often a quantum computer makes an error when passing through two functions.
IonQ uses a completely different technique known as trapped ion. While this approach isn't unique to IonQ, the company is by far the most advanced in its niche. It has achieved a 99.99% two-qubit gate fidelity with its products, meaning it makes about one error in every 10,000 calculations, versus others that make an error more often than once in every 1,000 calculations. That's a huge advantage, but it comes at a cost: IonQ's processing speeds are slower than its peers.
NYSE: IONQ
Key Data Points
Right now, speed isn't an issue, as quantum computing accuracy is the key metric most companies are focused on. Eventually, they will reach an acceptable accuracy threshold where speed will be the only thing that matters, which may put IonQ at a disadvantage.
However, if IonQ can reach the acceptable accuracy threshold first and establish a foothold in the emerging quantum computing industry, it could be enough for it to become one of the dominant companies in the field, which could correspond to incredible stock performance.
That's the bull case for IonQ, but it isn't rock solid due to some impressive competitors. The company's stock will rise and fall based on announcements about its progress in making a commercially viable quantum computer, but will that make a difference in 2026?
Useful quantum computing is years away
The reality is that commercially viable quantum computing won't be around until about 2030. That's a long way off, and a lot could happen between now and then. If you rewound the clock five years to 2020, we were in the midst of a pandemic, and artificial intelligence wasn't something most people had ever used or given much thought to.
Now, the economy is in the midst of an AI race, and we've emerged from the pandemic lockdowns with life returning to normal. Few could have predicted how the events from 2020 to 2025 played out, and predicting what will transpire through 2030 is no easier.
As a result, IonQ's stock performance will likely be tied to the market's appetite for risk. If the market becomes more conservative in 2026, quantum computing companies will likely struggle, unless there is a big breakthrough that accelerates the timeline. However, I don't envision that happening, and IonQ is nowhere near a viable business.
In the third quarter, its revenue totaled nearly $40 million, but the company lost more than $1 billion. Part of those losses dealt with a change in the fair value of stock warrants, but the reality is that IonQ is burning cash rapidly.
IONQ Free Cash Flow data by YCharts.
Over the past 12 months, the company has spent more than $260 million in cash, calculated from its free cash flow metric, and has around $1 billion in the bank. This means IonQ will either need to transform into a viable business or raise more capital at some point. With the success of its products so far, it shouldn't be hard to raise money, but it's still another consideration for investors.
Determining if the company will rise or fall in 2026 is an absolute guessing game. What matters is how it ends up in the quantum computing race. We won't see resolution in this industry for many years, so if you're investing in IonQ now, be prepared to wait for about five years before you see a return that is driven by business performance, rather than the ebbs and flows of the stock market.
