Bitcoin (BTC 0.38%) still has its fair share of critics, without a doubt. But the cryptocurrency's past gain speaks for itself. In less than two decades, this went from a worthless digital curiosity to a global asset that is valued at almost $1.8 trillion.
Bitcoin's performance in 2025, though, is out of the ordinary. Its price has fallen 7% (as of Dec. 23). This lags behind the overall stock market, which might be a surprise to investors.
Nonetheless, this dominant cryptocurrency's long-term outlook remains robust, in my view. Where will Bitcoin be in 10 years?
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Bitcoin can't be valued in the traditional sense
Bitcoin doesn't have a management team or a headquarters. It doesn't sell products and services to customers. Therefore, it doesn't collect revenue, pay expenses, or generate net income and free cash flow. It's not like a company, so investors can't conduct a detailed valuation exercise to figure out potential returns.
But there is another asset that investors can view in tandem with Bitcoin. And that's gold. The precious metal is similar to the digital asset in that it's borderless (no country or entity has control over it), global, decentralized, fungible, and scarce.
Gold possesses a key advantage over Bitcoin, which is that the former has been a top choice as a store of value for thousands of years. This perspective didn't change in 2025, as the price of gold has climbed 71%. Central banks in many different countries have increased their gold reserves in an effort to depend less on the U.S. dollar.
Bitcoin might not have the long history or the established position that gold does. But it has multiple advantages itself. For starters, Bitcoin is scarcer. Anyone who follows this crypto knows that there will only ever be 21 million units in circulation. This is enforced by halving events, which make Bitcoin's supply growth rate predictable. It has a hard supply cap that can't be altered.
On the other hand, gold's supply can fluctuate. If demand suddenly surged, miners would push to quickly extract more gold. And perhaps efforts will be made to invest in innovative mining tech to tap deposits on asteroids in outer space. Consequently, new supply can enter the market that responds to the demand shock, creating an adaptive system.
Bitcoin is also purely digital, living on the internet. In the past three decades, the world has only become more tech-driven and internet-enabled. This favors Bitcoin as a superior way to facilitate commerce.
To add to that, the fact that it's digital also means that it's much easier for Bitcoin to be used in transactions. Fintech enterprise Block recently announced that its 4 million Square merchants are able to accept Bitcoin seamlessly as a method of payment. No one is taking gold at the point of sale.
And by being digital, Bitcoin is divisible, with one satoshi equal to 1/100 millionth of a single Bitcoin. Gold's physical nature prevents this, unless you are able and willing to melt it down and make coins with a specific weight.
CRYPTO: BTC
Key Data Points
Can the digital asset catch up to the hard metal?
The value of all gold above ground is estimated to be a gargantuan $31.4 trillion. Bitcoin's market cap sits at a much smaller $1.8 trillion. It might be a stretch to believe that Bitcoin can close the gap and skyrocket 17-fold during the next decade. However, I believe in the very long term, the digital asset will be worth more than gold. Favorable regulation, increasing liquidity, and greater innovation will help.
During the coming 10 years, though, it wouldn't be surprising to see Bitcoin's price rise 10-fold, which translates to a 26% annualized gain. For what it's worth, Bitcoin compounded at a yearly rate of 70% in the past decade. It's reasonable to expect the growth to moderate as the asset continues to achieve broad adoption.
