Editor's note: After this article was written and scheduled to publish, Chinese customs officials blocked Nvidia H200 chip shipments. The article has been updated.
Nvidia (NVDA +0.54%) has been one of the top-performing stocks in the market in the last three years. Shares went up a whopping 1,020% in that period as the company's graphics processing units (GPUs) became an integral piece of AI infrastructure, and Nvidia is now the largest company in the world by market capitalization.
Shares currently trade about 10.7% off their all-time highs, but I don't think they're going to stay there for long. In fact, a series of events happening in the next few weeks, starting Jan. 15, could spark Nvidia stock to begin rising again.
Image source: Nvidia.
Earnings season is at hand
Corporate earnings season is often a market-moving event for companies. Nvidia in particular has delivered some astounding reports, with the most recent quarter showing revenue up 62% from a year ago to $57 billion, and data center revenue up 66% to $51.2 billion.
Nvidia isn't scheduled to post its next earnings release until Feb. 25, when it files its report for the fiscal fourth quarter of 2026. However, several other earnings reports from other companies could indicate what investors can expect from Nvidia.
Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing, which operates the foundries to build the semiconductor chips developed by Nvidia and its competitors, reports earnings on Jan. 15. That will be followed by Microsoft on Jan. 28, fellow chipmaker Advanced Micro Devices on Feb. 3, and Alphabet on Feb. 4. You can also look for Meta Platforms, which will likely post earnings in early February, and Amazon, which is expected to post its report in that window.
All of these reports can offer a glimpse into what investors can expect from Nvidia on Feb. 25. Here's what you need to look for.
Bellwether earnings reports provide a clue about Nvidia's forecast
Let's start with Taiwan Semiconductor, or TSMC. A strong revenue gain for TSMC will further confirm the demand for high-performance chips that can train and run AI programs and perform complex tasks. There are already positive indications -- TSMC filed its December revenue report on Jan. 9, posting revenue of $10.59 billion, up 20.4% from a year ago.
And its full-year revenue of $120.48 billion was up 31.6% from last year. When TSMC reports its quarterly earnings on Jan. 15, investors should pay close attention to the company's guidance, as an uptick from 2025 would indicate that the company remains flooded with work -- and Nvidia would more than likely be a big reason for that.
Microsoft, Alphabet, Meta Platforms, and Amazon can be painted with the same brush. All four are major customers of Nvidia, using the company's chips to help train large language models and clustering GPUs in massive data centers.
Microsoft has already announced plans to spend nearly $35 billion on AI infrastructure in the first quarter of fiscal 2026 and said that its AI spending will accelerate through the year. Alphabet expects to spend $91 billion to $93 billion in 2025, with that number increasing in 2026.
Meta's spending is somewhat slower, at $70 billion to $72 billion in 2025, but it has also said it will increase spending in 2026 as it builds AI tools and improves on its Llama large language model. And Amazon has been the biggest spender, pumping $125 billion into AI infrastructure in 2025.
For all four companies, investors should look for guidance in calendar year 2026 on how much they plan to spend on AI infrastructure. Bullish indications will likely be reflected in Nvidia's stock and will provide a window into what investors should expect from Nvidia's own earnings report.
And then there's AMD's Feb. 3 report. AMD is one of Nvidia's biggest competitors, although its chip sales pale in comparison -- in the most recent quarter, AMD recorded $4.3 billion in data center sales. However, that was up 22% from a year ago, and if AMD continues to grow its data center sales and speaks bullishly about that segment's growth in 2026, then that is another positive indicator for the entire sector -- and a tailwind for Nvidia.
NASDAQ: NVDA
Key Data Points
Should you invest in Nvidia stock?
The short answer is yes. I think Nvidia is a long-term buy for any investor, as its position in the AI chip market is solid -- even as other companies work to create alternatives to Nvidia's all-powerful products. Nvidia's Hopper and Blackwell chips are still selling strong, and the company plans to unveil its next-generation Rubin chips this year.
I would never suggest that investors should try to time the market, but I do think that a savvy investor can look at the earnings reports coming out in the next few weeks and extrapolate what Nvidia will say when it files its own report a few weeks later, particularly as Nvidia's customers talk about increases in capital expenditure spending. Either way, Nvidia looks like a top stock to buy and hold right now.
