Nvidia (NVDA 1.36%) stock has been a major winner for investors since the artificial intelligence (AI) theme gained traction. Over the past three years, the tech giant has seen its shares jump more than 800%. This isn't too surprising considering Nvidia's market position -- the company has steadily dominated the AI chip market and delivered mind-boggling revenue growth. It's a story that naturally appeals to investors looking for growth and an innovative company likely to keep on delivering that growth.
Now, though, after Nvidia has climbed so much, you may be wondering about how to time a possible purchase of the stock. Is there an ideal window of opportunity? For example, should you pick up the shares ahead of the next big catalyst on Feb. 25? Let's see what history has to say.
Image source: Getty Images.
Nvidia over the past year
First, though, it's important to take a closer look at Nvidia's path over the past year -- the stock has climbed, but the path wasn't linear, and the company faced its share of headwinds. As mentioned, Nvidia has generated spectacular revenue growth quarter after quarter, and it's done so at a high level of profitability, with gross margins greater than 70%. Rivals exist and have even delivered significant growth, but this hasn't upset Nvidia's leadership or prospects. Demand is so great that there is room for several players, and the strength of Nvidia's AI chips has made them the mainstay of major AI platforms.
Still, late last year, concerns about a potential AI bubble began to mount, and this temporarily weighed on Nvidia stock and the shares of other AI leaders. And investors have kept an eye on AI spending trends -- with the idea that any possible dip may signal a slowdown.
NASDAQ: NVDA
Key Data Points
But the messages from companies haven't supported pessimism. Tech giants continue to spend heavily on AI infrastructure, and chip designers and cloud providers have seen explosive demand. And this has helped many AI stocks, including Nvidia, climb from November lows.
So, Nvidia and many other strong AI players still represent great AI investments. Now, let's return to our question about the timing of your potential Nvidia buy. The catalyst ahead is Nvidia's fiscal fourth-quarter and full-year 2026 earnings report, set for Feb. 25 after the market closes.
A clue from an Nvidia partner
There's reason to be optimistic about this report, considering comments from others in the industry -- particularly the latest earnings report of key partner Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing, the company that actually manufactures Nvidia's chips. That company reported earnings that beat analysts' estimates.
Now, let's consider what history tells us about the performance of Nvidia stock after its earnings reports. Over the past 11 quarters, Nvidia stock has declined six times in the week following the report and climbed five times. And in the past six quarters, Nvidia stock has only advanced once in this time period after earnings -- that was a 5% gain last June after the company's first-quarter 2026 report.
| Earnings report | Stock performance over the following week |
|---|---|
| Q2 fiscal 2025 | down 15% |
| Q3 fiscal 2025 | down 7% |
| Q4 fiscal 2025 | down 10% |
| Q1 fiscal 2026 | up 5% |
| Q2 fiscal 2026 | down 6% |
| Q3 fiscal 2026 | down 3% |
|
Data source: Ycharts |
And, as mentioned, reports over the past couple of years have been strong, with Nvidia beating estimates and delivering record levels of revenue. Even positive news clearly hasn't supercharged Nvidia's stock over the short term.
So, history suggests you don't have to rush out to buy Nvidia's stock ahead of its earnings report since these reports haven't been known to push the stock immediately higher.
Now, here's some even better news: Even if a stock makes a decent-sized move after a particular event, what seems like a big move today won't make much of a difference if you hold the stock over the long term. This means you don't have to worry about timing a buy. Instead, consider picking up shares of a quality company when valuation looks reasonable and aim to hang on for the long term. If you do this, you're likely to score a win.
And all of this means you might see significant gains over time if you buy Nvidia now -- or after Feb. 25.
