Garmin (GRMN 0.15%) releases its fourth-quarter 2025 earnings report next Wednesday. If you're thinking about buying shares ahead of it, let me walk you through what's actually going on with this company, and why earnings season is both an exciting time and a dangerous gamble.
When I think of Garmin, I picture fitness watches, marathon runners, and people in $200 running shorts. But here's where a lot of other investors are wrong: Garmin isn't just a GPS and fitness company. It's a supplier for aviation services (yes, planes), a serious player in marine electronics, an important auto equipment partner for brands like BMW -- oh, and also a successful wearables company.
In fiscal year 2024, Garmin posted record revenue of $6.3 billion (a 20% jump), with every single one of its five business segments hitting all-time highs. Operating income surged 46% to $1.59 billion. Those are ridiculous numbers for a company that most people still associate with GPS navigation.
Its fitness segment has been a monster. In third-quarter 2025, fitness revenue jumped 30%, driven by demand for advanced wearables. The outdoor segment -- Garmin's largest -- pulled in $498 million that same quarter, though it dipped 5% after lapping some big product launches from the prior year.
For the full year, Garmin raised its revenue guidance to $7.1 billion. These are massive numbers if you think Garmin is just about fitness watches.
Image created by JesterAI.
The Feb. 18 setup
Wall Street expects Garmin to report Q4 2025 earnings of $2.39 per share on revenue of about $2.01 billion. That revenue estimate represents a 10.4% year-over-year increase.
The stock currently trades around $205, well below its 52-week high of $261.69. The company also pays a $3.60 annual dividend , and it boosted that payout by 20% last year.
NYSE: GRMN
Key Data Points
Why I'd be careful here
Buying any stock right before earnings is a coin flip dressed up as a strategy. Last October, Garmin's stock dropped 11.5% in a single day after Q3 2025 results missed revenue estimates by just 1.1%. The actual numbers were fine, but the market just wanted perfection.
That's the risk you take this earnings date. If Garmin beats expectations on Feb. 18, the stock could pop. If it misses by even a slight margin, you could be staring at an immediate 10% haircut.
With the stock already down roughly 22% from its highs, there's a reasonable argument that some bad news is already baked in, but there's no guarantee that the market agrees.
A price-to-earnings ratio of 23 on a company growing earnings at 11% isn't cheap, but it's not overblown either. In other words, investors are paying a very fair price for consistent growth, not an inflated premium based on hype.
My honest thoughts? Don't try to time earnings. If Garmin fits your portfolio and you plan to hold for three to five years, then next week's report is just one data point. Buy a partial position now if the valuation appeals to you, keep some cash on the side, and add more if the stock dips after the report.
That way, you're in the game without betting everything on one morning. The best investors I follow don't gamble on earnings dates. They buy great businesses at fair prices and let time do the heavy lifting.
