Nvidia (NVDA 1.53%) was a market darling after the onset of artificial intelligence (AI) catapulted the company to fame and fortune. The company adapted its graphics processing units (GPUs) to handle the rigors of AI, quickly becoming the gold standard. This fueled unprecedented revenue and profit growth, fueling a surge in its stock price. In fact, since early 2023, the stock price has surged 1,200% (as of this writing), and shareholders have profited handsomely.
In recent months, however, the chipmaker's sheen has dimmed. Talk of circular deals, an AI bubble, and decelerating growth has slowed Nvidia's ascent -- the stock is essentially flat thus far in 2026. While its relative growth rate has slowed, absolute demand is still robust. Some on Wall Street have taken notice.
One analyst recently doubled their forecasts for Nvidia stock, predicting it will grow its market cap to $20 trillion by 2030, generating stock price gains of 332% in the process. Let's review the company's recent results, why the analyst is one of Nvidia's biggest bulls, and what it will need to do to achieve a $20 trillion market cap.
Image source: Getty Images.
Spoiler alert: The numbers are impressive
For its fiscal 2026 third quarter (ended Oct. 26), Nvidia delivered record revenue that climbed 62% year over year and 22% sequentially to $57 billion, while its earnings per share (EPS) jumped 67% to $1.30.
The data center segment, which includes GPUs used for AI, data centers, and cloud computing, generated sales that surged 66% to $51.2 billion, underscoring the ongoing adoption of AI.
Its outlook is equally compelling, guiding for fourth-quarter revenue of $65 billion, or year-over-year growth of about 66% at the midpoint of its guidance.
While the numbers are impressive, they undersell Nvidia's future potential. Late last year, CEO Jensen Huang revealed that the company's backlog, to be fulfilled over the six quarters ending in early 2027, stood at $500 billion. At an investor event last month, CFO Colette Kress went further, saying, "That $500 billion has definitely gotten larger." That suggests Nvidia's revenue growth will likely continue to accelerate over the coming year.
The (mathematical) path to $20 trillion
Nvidia's market cap stands at about $4.6 trillion (as of this writing). The stock will need to increase 332% to push its value to $20 trillion. Nvidia is expected to generate revenue of $213 billion in its fiscal 2026 (ended Jan. 27), according to Wall Street, giving it a forward price-to-sales (P/S) ratio of 21. Assuming its P/S remains constant, Nvidia would need to increase its revenue to roughly $923 billion annually to support a $20 trillion market cap.
Wall Street is forecasting annual revenue growth of more than 34% for Nvidia over the coming five years. A back-of-the-envelope calculation shows that if the company achieves that benchmark, its revenue will grow to $939 billion by 2030, enough to make the grade.
NASDAQ: NVDA
Key Data Points
Don't take my word for it. Late last year, Beth Kindig, CEO and lead tech analyst for the I/O Fund, doubled her previous estimates, predicting Nvidia will reach a $20 trillion market cap by 2030. Her argument is compelling: Kindig said Nvidia will increase its data center revenue by 36% annually over the next five years, which will push its market cap above $20 trillion:
This is supported by Nvidia's aggressive 1-year product roadmap, an impenetrable software ecosystem through CUDA, and its evolution into a full-stack AI systems provider. When these elements are modeled together -- alongside the rapid expansion in global AI infrastructure capex -- the path to $20 trillion becomes less sensational and more a reflection of compounding fundamentals.
If you doubt Kindig's credentials, consider this: In 2021, when Nvidia had a market cap of just $550 billion, she projected that it would surpass Apple to become the world's most valuable company. Kindig's prophecy came to pass just three years later, so she clearly did her homework.
Fears of an AI bubble and slowing adoption have shaken some shareholders. This gives patient investors the chance to buy the stock at a relative discount. Nvidia is trading for less than 25 times forward sales, even though it's expected to increase its revenue by 65% to $326 billion over the coming year.
Taking a step back, it really doesn't matter if the company doesn't reach the arbitrary $20 trillion benchmark over the next five years. That said, all the evidence suggests that Nvidia stock will be worth much more than it is today.
