Nvidia (NVDA 1.53%) is scheduled to report its results for the fourth quarter of fiscal 2026 (ended Jan. 25) on Wednesday, Feb. 25, after the market close.
Nvidia's earnings have become the most anticipated during the quarterly earnings season over the last few years. Its status as the leading maker of artificial intelligence (AI) chips and related AI infrastructure has made it a bellwether, or indicator, for the AI market. Moreover, to some degree, Nvidia is also considered a bellwether for the entire stock market. That's because it's the most valuable company on the S&P 500 index.
Recent events suggest Nvidia will post fantastic quarterly results.
Image source: Getty Images.
Recent events point to a blow-out quarter
First, the hyperscalers (big tech companies that operate huge data centers) and other major software companies said they would further increase their already massive capital expenditures in 2026, with most of that spending going toward AI. This higher spending on AI data center buildouts is a big positive for Nvidia, whose graphics processing units (GPUs) dominate the markets for AI model training and AI inference (application deployment).
Second, Nvidia CEO Jensen Huang, in a November interview following the release of the company's fiscal Q2 results, described the demand for the company's new Blackwell platform data center products as "off the charts." At that time, Nvidia was scaling up production of Blackwell AI-enabling products to meet powerful demand. Moreover, at the Consumer Electronics Show (CES) 2026 in January, Huang's presentation slides included one that described demand for AI computing products as "insane."
Nvidia's fiscal Q4 guidance and Wall Street's estimates
| Metric | Q4 Fiscal 2025 Result | Nvidia's Q4 Fiscal 2026 Guidance | Nvidia's Projected Growth | Wall Street's Q4 Fiscal 2026 Consensus Estimate | Wall Street's Projected Growth |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue | $39.33 billion | $65 billion | 65% | $65.58 billion | 67% |
| Adjusted (non-GAAP) earnings per share (EPS) | $0.89 | $1.50* | 69% | $1.52 | 71% |
Data sources: Nvidia and Yahoo! Finance. Fiscal Q4 2026 ended Jan. 25. GAAP = generally accepted accounting principles. *Calculation by the author based on the metrics for which management provided guidance.
As with last quarter, Nvidia's guidance assumed no data center AI chip sales to China.
Wall Street's estimates for fiscal Q1 guidance
A company's guidance (relative to Wall Street's expectations) will often significantly affect its stock price performance following an earnings release. Sometimes this effect can outweigh the results of the current quarter, because investors are more focused on the future than on the past.
Below are the analyst consensus estimates for Nvidia's first quarter of fiscal 2027, which will end in late April 2026.
| Metric | Q1 Fiscal 2026 Result | Wall Street's Q1 Fiscal 2027 Consensus Estimate | Wall Street's Projected Growth |
|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue | $44.06 billion | $70.8 billion | 61% |
| Adjusted EPS | $0.81 | $1.65 | 104% |
Data source: Nvidia and Yahoo! Finance. Fiscal Q1 2027 ends in late April 2026.
NASDAQ: NVDA
Key Data Points
Nvidia's excellent "earnings beat" track record
Nvidia has an excellent track record of exceeding Wall Street's earnings estimates, so the probability seems high that it will do so on Feb. 25.
Below is data for the past 22 quarters, or 5.5 years. I broke out the results of the last four quarters to show the most recent performance. The beats have been smaller more recently, but I attribute that to Nvidia management having greater visibility into future quarters because of its massive backlog of orders. In other words, management can offer better guidance, and Wall Street analysts use it to establish their estimates.
| Period | Earnings* Results Relative to Wall Street's Consensus Estimate | Magnitude of Earnings Beat (Average) | Magnitude of Earnings Beat (Range) |
|---|---|---|---|
| Last 22 reported quarters | 20/22 beats = 90.9% |
10%** |
3% to 32%** |
|
Most recently reported four quarters | 4/4 beats = 100% | 5.2% | 3.5% to 8.5% |
Data source: Nvidia and Yahoo! Finance. Calculations by the author. *Earnings in the form of adjusted earnings per share (EPS). **Rounded to the nearest whole number.
Nvidia stock's post-earnings-release performance
The data below shows the magnitude of Nvidia's earnings beat and the stock price performance on the day following the release for the prior 11 quarters. I chose 11 for a reason. Nvidia has reported 11 quarters since generative AI lit a fire under demand for AI capabilities. Generative AI was introduced to most consumers and business leaders alike when OpenAI released its ChatGPT chatbot in late 2022.
Of course, it's great for investors to see Nvidia stock pop after its quarterly results are released. But keep in mind that the stock's performance can also depend on factors beyond earnings, such as the market's overall performance and investor sentiment toward AI stocks, which has been quite volatile. Long-term investors should focus more on Nvidia's financial performance and guidance than on the stock's post-earnings-release performance.
| Quarter | Period Ending | Magnitude of Earnings Beat/(Miss)* | Stock Price Change Day After Earnings Release |
|---|---|---|---|
| Q3 fiscal 2026 | Late October 2025 | 3% | (3.2%) |
| Q2 fiscal 2026 | Late July 2025 | 4% | (0.8%) |
| Q1 fiscal 2026 | Late April 2025 | 8% | 3.3% |
| Q4 fiscal 2025 | Late January 2025 | 5% | (8.5%) |
| Q3 fiscal 2025 | Late October 2024 | 9% | 0.5% |
| Q2 fiscal 2024 | Late July 2024 | 6% | (6.4%) |
| Q1 fiscal 2025 | Late April 2024 | 10% | 9.3% |
| Q4 fiscal 2024 | Late January 2024 | 12% | 16.4% |
| Q3 fiscal 2024 | Late October 2023 | 19% |
(2.5%) |
| Q2 fiscal 2024 | Late July 2023 | 32% |
0.1% |
| Q1 fiscal 2024 | Late April 2023 | 18% |
24.4% |
Data sources: Nvidia, Yahoo! Finance, and YCharts. *Rounded to the nearest whole number.
As you can see, there is no significant correlation between the magnitude of the earnings beat and stock price performance after the earnings release.
But that shouldn't concern long-term investors. As long as Nvidia continues to deliver strong results, its stock price should continue to increase over the long term.
