Chevron (CVX +3.21%) stock is hovering around an all-time high price after gaining 21.6% year to date at the time of this writing. The energy sector is booming due to rising oil prices and investor uncertainty. Some investors are gravitating toward heavy industries that are less vulnerable to artificial intelligence (AI) disruption -- like oil and gas.
At around $185 per share, Chevron is knocking on the door of the $200-per-share milestone. But some investors may be worried Chevron is running up too far, too fast.
Here's what it would take for Chevron to keep soaring, and if the dividend stock is a buy now.
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Chevron is in growth mode
Chevron is investing in low-carbon projects such as hydrogen, carbon capture and storage, and renewable fuels to diversify its portfolio. But the vast majority of its earnings still come from its upstream oil and gas segment.
To protect against downside risk and improve profitability even during periods of lower oil prices, Chevron has reduced its production costs through technological advancements and an emphasis on high-quality projects. On its latest earnings call (fourth quarter 2025), Chevron said it has reduced its break-even level for dividends and capital expenditures (capex) to just $50 per Brent crude oil barrel. This means that even at $50 Brent, Chevron can support its operations, long-term investments, and dividend.
In 2025, Chevron paid $12.8 billion in dividends, spent $17.3 billion on capex, and generated $16.5 billion in free cash flow (FCF). This means Chevron supported its dividend program with cash, which is especially impressive considering 2025 oil prices were the lowest annual average since 2020.
Even if Brent prices fell below $50, Chevron could still cut capex and buybacks or rely on its rock-solid balance sheet. Chevron finished 2025 with a net-debt-to-cash flow from operations (CFFO) ratio of 1 -- meaning that its 2025 CFFO equals its net debt. And that's even when factoring in the debt Chevron added when it acquired Hess.
Chevron's production skyrocketed from 3.34 million barrels of oil equivalent per day (boe/d) in 2024 to 3.72 million in 2025. Its acquisition of Hess and the development of offshore production in Guyana and onshore Venezuela should further contribute to earnings and FCF. Chevron is also negotiating for a stake in a massive oilfield in Iraq. However, these international bets are inherently riskier than U.S. plays.
NYSE: CVX
Key Data Points
A balanced buy for income investors
With Brent crude oil prices over $70 per barrel at the time of this writing, Chevron is incredibly well-positioned to rake in the FCF and earnings in 2026. It also has a considerable cushion between the current oil price and its break-even level.
Chevron has been arguably undervalued for years. So even after its recent run-up, it's still a good value based on its price-to-earnings and price-to-FCF ratios -- especially considering earnings will likely be much higher in 2026 than in 2025.
Chevron isn't as cheap as it used to be. But with 38 consecutive years of boosting its dividend and a 3.8% dividend yield, it remains a solid stock for income investors to buy now.
