In the fourth quarter of 2025, Lemonade's (LMND 1.91%) customer count increased by 23% year over year, its premiums per customer rose 7%, and its revenue grew by 53% -- all solid improvements.
The upstart insurance company believes its results are starting to validate its strategy of utilizing artificial intelligence (AI) at the core of its operations. While it isn't profitable now, management forecasts that it will report positive adjusted earnings before interest, taxes, depreciation, and amortization (EBITDA) in Q4 2026.
Its recent earnings report was encouraging, but it still wasn't enough to prevent Lemonade's stock price from plummeting by roughly 36% in February.
Source image: Getty Images.
Multiple reasons for the dip
Sometimes a company's stock price will fall due to a clear, singular piece of news. For Lemonade in February, it appears that a convergence of factors contributed to the stock's decline.
First, investors appear to be growing impatient with companies that are investing heavily in AI. From companies building out data centers to those implementing AI software into their day-to-day operations, shareholders are increasingly anxious to see those investments start to show signs of paying off.
Lemonade was built on the premise that it could use AI to disrupt the insurance industry, but it has yet to fully deliver on that idea, as it's still not profitable.
NYSE: LMND
Key Data Points
Second, during this period of geopolitical and macroeconomic uncertainty, investors aren't lining up to add risk assets to their portfolios.
Finally, shareholders need to recognize that this stock is apt to move in extremes in either direction. Lemonade has a beta of 2.2, which means that its volatility level is more than double that of the broader market. That could moderate as it moves toward profitability and offers more consistent quarterly results, but that won't happen any time soon.
Because the company isn't profitable, it's more challenging to judge its stock on traditional metrics.
What investors will want to watch from here are its loss ratios: Those metrics offer a way to gauge whether Lemonade is pricing its policies accurately and whether it's on the path to profitability.
