Four percent. That's the share of the world's population that currently owns any Bitcoin (BTC +2.78%), according to research from River, a financial services business. And for an asset with a market cap of $1.4 trillion, that amount of traction globally is still quite small.
So if adoption of Bitcoin continues rising at anything close to its recent pace, every new buyer will be competing for a very slowly growing pool of available coins, and that will send up its price during the long term. Here's how that's likely to play out.
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Most people still don't hold this coin
River's research estimates that the total addressable market (TAM) of Bitcoin is roughly $225 trillion, which makes its current market cap look puny. Its adoption as a scarce store of value is going to be what drives its long-term growth, which is the same situation as always. And that adoption is palpably picking up speed.
Although individuals offloaded the coin on average during 2025, creating net capital outflows of about $300 million, banks, governments, hedge funds, and other financial companies loaded up. In particular, hedge funds expanded their holdings of Bitcoin by a total of $7 billion during the course of last year, bringing their holdings as a group to $19.9 billion.
CRYPTO: BTC
Key Data Points
For investors trying to figure what to add to a crypto portfolio, this means that they probably aren't too late to get a return with Bitcoin. None of these channels for demand are anywhere close to being tapped out, and each one represents a potential wave of new capital.
The incentive is to act sooner rather than later
Of course, Bitcoin adoption is only half the equation in terms of having a good hunch about where its price is going to go in the long run.
The other half is Bitcoin's supply schedule. About 95% of the 21 million coins that will ever exist have already been mined. The next halving, a programmed event that cuts the rate of new coin issuance in half, is expected to occur in about April 2028. At that point, daily issuance will drop, and there will be a stronger force of supply pressure exerted on the asset's price, until the next halving after that, when the process will repeat.
Therefore, the more years you wait to buy Bitcoin, the more pricey it is likely to be. As more people in the 96% of humanity that doesn't hold any of the coin figure out that principle and gain the ability to act on their knowledge, there will be even more capital competing for its ever-diminishing supply. And that will likely continue driving the price up for quite some time.
