PayPal (PYPL 1.59%), one of the world's largest digital payment companies, was once a promising growth stock. Yet over the past five years, its stock has declined nearly 80% as intense competition, the loss of eBay (EBAY 0.76%) as a top customer, and a challenging macro environment throttled its growth in active accounts and revenues.
From 2021 to 2025, PayPal's year-end active accounts only grew from 426 million to 439 million. That was well below its original goal (which it later abandoned) of hitting 750 million active accounts by 2025. As its account growth stalls out, it's trying to drive more transactions through its branded checkout platform, Venmo peer-to-peer payments app, debit cards, and buy now, pay later (BNPL) services to offset that pressure.
Image source: PayPal.
At the same time, it's downsizing its higher-volume, lower-value platforms (including its backend platform Braintree) to stabilize its margins and transaction take rates. It's also cutting costs and aggressively repurchasing its shares to boost its EPS as its top-line growth cools.
But for 2026, it still expects EPS to decline by mid-single digits as its branded checkout platform struggles to stand out in a sea of similar services. So while PayPal's stock might seem cheap at nine times this year's earnings, it might deserve that discount valuation. Therefore, it might be smarter to invest in another financial giant with a wider moat: American Express (AXP 1.11%).
Why is American Express a better buy?
American Express is often compared to Visa (V 0.52%) and Mastercard (MA 0.86%), but it operates a different business model. Visa and Mastercard don't issue their own cards -- they only partner with banks, which issue the cards and take on the debt. They generate most of their revenues by charging merchants "swipe fees" whenever those cards are used.
American Express is both a card-issuing bank and a payment network operator. Therefore, it backs its own cards with its own balance sheet and earns interest on those accounts. It's well insulated from interest rate swings: if interest rates rise, its net interest income rises; if interest rates decline, it earns higher card processing fees as consumer spending accelerates.
NYSE: AXP
Key Data Points
American Express serves fewer cardholders than Visa or Mastercard, but its focus on more affluent, lower-risk customers enables it to grow steadily. From 2025 to 2028, analysts expect its EPS to grow at a 15% CAGR as its "closed-loop" system locks in more customers. That's a robust growth rate for a stock that trades at just 17 times this year's earnings -- and I believe it will continue to outperform PayPal and many of its financial peers for the foreseeable future.
