In late October, prediction market traders were giving Bitcoin (BTC 0.60%) a 60% chance of hitting a price of $150,000 by the end of March 2026. At the time, Bitcoin was trading near an all-time high of $126,000 and its future looked very bright indeed.
But, my, how times have changed. Bitcoin has since crashed down to the $72,000 price level, and shows no signs of heading higher any time soon. As a result, prediction markets are paying just pennies for "yes" on $150,000 Bitcoin by the end of March. How should you weigh this collapse of prediction market sentiment when considering Bitcoin's trajectory over the next 12 months?
The four-year Bitcoin cycle
It's important to keep in mind that Bitcoin historically has followed a four-year cycle of boom and bust. Three good years are typically followed by one very bad year in which Bitcoin loses 57% or more of its value.
CRYPTO: BTC
Key Data Points
If history is any guide, then Bitcoin is in line for one of those very bad years in 2026. After all, previous Bitcoin price collapses have occurred in 2014, 2018, and 2022. So it makes sense that Bitcoin could suffer another major price collapse in 2026.
Bitcoin is already down 25% for the year, and there's likely more pain on the way. Some bearish analysts are already talking about $40,000 Bitcoin and even $20,000 Bitcoin. Things could get really nasty, really fast.
If you believe in the four-year Bitcoin cycle, then prediction markets appear to be offering a clear warning to investors: "Stay away." In other words, this is not your typical buy-the-dip opportunity with Bitcoin. Some have already drawn a parallel to the crypto winter of 2022, when Bitcoin fell in price by 64%.
Can you make money betting against Bitcoin?
The obvious conclusion here is that you should be buying up those March 2026 event contracts, hoping that Bitcoin continues to trade sideways or down, right?
Image source: Getty Images.
Wrong. From my perspective, there's not much meat on the bone in this trade. On Polymarket, the odds of Bitcoin hitting $150,000 by the end of March are currently just 1%. Right now, a "yes" contract costs $0.016 and a "no" contract costs $0.987.
If you are absolutely convinced that Bitcoin can't hit $150,000 by the end of March, then you could pay $100 for "no" contracts in order to win $101.32. It's almost not even worth it.
I'd almost rather take the opposite side of this trade. I could pay $100 for "yes" contracts and earn $5,252.15 if Bitcoin somehow pulls off some March madness.
Wait for 2028
A better idea, though, might be to wait for 2028. That's when the next Bitcoin halving is scheduled to take place. According to the four-year Bitcoin cycle, that's also when the "boom" phase of the cycle is expected to kick into high gear.
The same thing happened in 2024. After a halving event in April, Bitcoin rallied hard after the election. It eventually reached $100,000 by the end of the year.
I'm not betting against Bitcoin right now. Instead, I'm expecting Bitcoin to follow the same trajectory that it has in previous boom-and-bust cycles. That means a price decline in 2026 could end up rewarding long-term investors. A modest upfront investment in Bitcoin now could pay off big later.
