Most people are already well aware of gold's rally over the past couple of years. To say that it's historic would be an understatement. After hitting a ceiling around $2,000 per ounce multiple times in the early 2020s, gold finally broke through and has been rising virtually non-stop ever since. Gold pushed above the $5,000 mark in January and is still there now.
Gold Price in U.S. Dollars data by YCharts.
Gold's rally has been historic in another sense too -- but maybe not one that investors should be thrilled with.
February 2026 marked the eighth straight month that gold prices have risen. Most of the monthly gains haven't been small, either.
| Month | Return |
|---|---|
| July 2025 | 1% |
| August 2025 | 4% |
| September 2025 | 12% |
| October 2025 | 4% |
| November 2025 | 5% |
| December 2025 | 2% |
| January 2026 | 10% |
| February 2026 | 3% |
Data source: Investing.com.
Gold is traditionally considered a safe haven asset that can rise in value when stocks are falling. As I've pointed out in the past, gold's long-term correlation with the S&P 500 (^GSPC 1.52%) is almost zero. That means gold pretty much does whatever it wants, whenever it wants. It may help protect against stock market downside, but it also may not. In reality, gold prices can react to market events, geopolitics, monetary policy, debt, and other issues.
If we look at history, gold prices going up in eight straight months is almost unprecedented. In fact, since 1970, it has only happened one other time -- February 2008.
Image source: Getty Images.
Is gold signaling another major bear market?
It's difficult to ascribe a lengthy gold rally to one specific cause, but it was definitely sniffing something out back then. What's interesting is that Treasury yields were also falling steadily throughout 2007, so there's potentially a double risk-off signal brewing.
If we look at the S&P 500 chart during this time, the culmination of the gold rally wrapped up just before the index peaked. Once the financial crisis gripped the markets, the S&P 500 entered a deep bear market that cut the index's value in half.
The big question now is whether the recent gold rally is signaling another precursor to a recession and/or bear market.
The weakness we're seeing in the labor market right now should signal that this isn't merely a coincidence. At its core, frequent negative monthly job growth, which we've seen throughout the past year, is a sure sign of labor market weakness. In this scenario, companies usually see a challenging environment ahead and don't want to commit to too much spending.
Employment is the foundation of almost everything the consumer does. If people feel less secure in their jobs, they tend to dial back spending and hang on to cash just in case. This is the kind of behavior that can lead to a recession.
However, the AI story is currently overshadowing a lot of potential weaknesses. Those weaknesses in the labor market have historically correlated highly with recessions and bear markets.
Right now, the S&P 500 still isn't that far below its all-time high. That may change quickly over the next several months.
