SoFi Technologies (SOFI +5.10%) reported mostly outstanding results for the 2026 first quarter, and its stock continues to get crushed. It's down 38% this year alone.
Investors might be fleeing, but is it justified? Let's see where SoFi might be in 2030 and whether it makes sense to wait it out.
High-growth fintech
Let's take a step back and see why SoFi has an exciting investment thesis in the first place, and why its stock has tripled over the past three years, including the current drop.
Image source: Getty Images.
SoFi is an all-digital bank that offers a large assortment of financial services, all in one app. That might not sound so different than other banks today, but it stands out in a number of ways. Firstly, it's all digital, so there are no high real estate costs. It puts all of its resources into creating an easy-to-use platform and highlighting innovation.
This simple approach to finance targets a young professional consumer base that's digitally savvy and upwardly mobile. The company sees its distinctive edge in providing a "one-stop shop" approach to this clientele, and its strategy is to grow with them.
The model is catching on, and the proof is in the numbers. SoFi has set a new record for customer add-ons for the past six quarters, in absolute terms, and percentage growth is still high. Product growth has accelerated further, indicating that the cross-sell strategy is working.
| Metric | Q1 26 | Q425 | Q3 25 | Q2 25 | Q1 25 | Q4 24 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Customer add-ons | 1.1 million | 1 million | 905,000 | 850,000 | 800,000 | 785,000 |
| Customer growth | 35% | 35% | 35% | 34% | 34% | 34% |
| Product growth | 39% | 37% | 36% | 34% | 34% | 32% |
Data source: SoFi quarterly reports. All growth is year over year.
The low-cost, high-growth model turned profitable a few years ago, and earnings per share (EPS) are growing at a fast rate. It increased 160% from 2024 to 2025 and 100% year over year in the 2026 first quarter.
A long growth runway
There are several reasons the stock might have dropped recently, but they all come back to one primary reason: an expensive stock is liable to fall if not everything is going right. At the current price, SoFi stock trades at 35 times trailing 12-month earnings, which is fairly cheap for a high-growth stock.
Let's consider what that means for the stock's potential over the next five years. The stock has been somewhat volatile since it went public, which is pretty standard for high-growth initial public offerings (IPO). So while the drop now looks alarming, it has had plenty of high gains, too.
NASDAQ: SOFI
Key Data Points
The economy is in flux right now, with high inflation, oil prices, and interest rates, while the market hits new highs. As five years pass, expect more ups and downs.
Many things can happen over that time. But blocking them out for this exercise, suppose that SoFi can keep boosting EPS. Proposing a 30% compound annual growth rate (CAGR), modest compared with recent rates, EPS would be $1.44 in 2030, and using a P/E ratio of 30, lower than today, the stock price would be about $43, or almost triple today's price.
If you can handle some risk and stomach the likely volatility, SoFi could be a great stock to own over the next five years.
