Space Exploration Technologies (SPCX -4.20%) has become one of the biggest post-IPO stories of 2026. The company priced its initial public offering at $135 per share, opened for trading at $150, and closed its first trading day at $160.95. Investors who received shares at the IPO price were sitting on a gain of roughly 19% by the end of day one. The stock closed at nearly $201.80 on June 16, nearly 50% above its IPO price, pushing SpaceX's market value to about $2.6 trillion.
The real question now is whether SpaceX stock can keep climbing after its sharp post-IPO rally, and whether the move is driven more by stronger business fundamentals or by investor excitement. Shares slipped slightly on Thursday, but the stock is still showing solid gains from its IPO price.
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Robust growth story
SpaceX is already the clear leader in rocket launches. The company completed 161 commercial launches and controlled 82% of the U.S. commercial launch market in 2025. SpaceX also carried more than 80% of all satellite and spacecraft weight sent into orbit globally that year.
NASDAQ: SPCX
Key Data Points
SpaceX is not just selling rocket launches to outside customers. It also uses its own rockets to expand Starlink, its satellite internet business, faster and at a lower cost. Frequent launches help SpaceX expand Starlink coverage, add capacity, and serve commercial and government customers. Most rivals are still lagging in both reusable rockets and satellite scale.
The Starlink-powered connectivity segment generated $11.4 billion in revenue and was SpaceX's only profitable business in 2025. Starlink also had 10.3 million subscribers across 164 countries as of March 31, 2026.
However, Starlink's average revenue per user (ARPU) fell from $91 per month in 2024 to $81 per month in 2025 and to $66 per month in the first quarter of 2026. That suggests subscriber growth is coming partly from lower-priced markets and cheaper service plans. Investors should therefore watch whether Starlink can continue to grow without putting too much pressure on margins.
Upside potential with high execution risk
SpaceX earned $3.2 billion in artificial intelligence (AI) revenue in 2025, up 22.2% on a year-over-year basis. In May 2026, the company entered into a deal with Anthropic to supply compute capacity for $1.25 billion per month through May 2029. SpaceX is ramping up that capacity in May and June 2026, although the initial capacity will be charged at a lower rate.
However, the AI build-out has also exposed the company to significant execution risk. Starlink is profitable, but AI is still consuming cash faster than it is generating profits. The company reported a $4.9 billion net loss, AI operating losses of $6.4 billion, and $12.7 billion of AI capital expenditures (capex) in 2025. AI capex then reached $7.7 billion in the first quarter alone. SpaceX also exited the first quarter with $29.1 billion in debt, including a $20 billion bridge loan that must be repaid by Sept. 2, 2027, with the possibility of a two- to three-month extension.
At a $2.6 trillion market capitalization, Wall Street is already assuming strong execution across SpaceX's dominant Starlink business and a huge AI infrastructure opportunity. The stock may still rise because investor demand remains strong, and index-related buying could add more support.
However, long-term investors need proof that Starlink can maintain ARPU and AI losses can shift toward profits.
