Applied Materials (AMAT +1.18%) rose about 15% on Thursday, July 30, without releasing any news of its own. Shares closed that day at $501.77 and edged higher again on Friday, leaving them more than 30% short of their 52-week high of $739.67. And the company's next chance to justify the move arrives on Thursday, Aug. 13, when it reports fiscal third-quarter results.
The catalyst was a peer, not Applied itself. Lam Research, which sells chip-manufacturing equipment into many of the same factories, reported record June-quarter revenue, operating margin, and earnings per share on Wednesday, and it guided for about $8.1 billion in September-quarter revenue.
Investors marked up equipment stocks across the board on Thursday, and Applied Materials, already up more than 200% from its 52-week low of $154.47, moved with them.
Image source: Getty Images.
The Aug. 13 test
Applied's own most recent update supports the optimism. In May, the company reported record fiscal second-quarter results: Revenue rose 11% year over year to $7.91 billion, and non-GAAP (adjusted) earnings per share grew 20% to $2.86. Management guided for fiscal third-quarter revenue of about $8.95 billion, plus or minus $500 million, which would be another record. Also worth noting, Applied raised its quarterly dividend 15% this year, to $0.53 per share, its ninth straight annual increase.
CEO Gary Dickerson said at the time that the company expects its semiconductor equipment business to grow more than 30% in calendar 2026. In the earnings release, he said the artificial intelligence (AI) build-out, combined with the company's positions in leading-edge logic, DRAM, and advanced packaging, provides "an exceptionally strong foundation for sustained, multi-year revenue and profit growth."
NASDAQ: AMAT
Key Data Points
So the Aug. 13 report has two jobs. It needs to deliver on the roughly $9 billion revenue guide, and it needs to show demand strong enough to back that 30% growth call for the calendar year.
Until then, Thursday's gain is a bet on results Applied hasn't reported yet. The AI spending wave that lifted Lam Research favors the whole equipment group, and Applied's May numbers suggest it is riding the same demand.
But a move this large gets confirmed on earnings day, and investors will get their answer in less than two weeks.
