Over the next three years, a group of leading financial institutions and crypto companies plan to spend at least $15 million on the Bitcoin (BTC -0.02%) Security Consortium. At stake: the long-term security and resilience of the Bitcoin blockchain ecosystem.
A major focal point will be preparing Bitcoin for the coming era of quantum computing. That's big news because the so-called "quantum threat" has been a source of growing concern for Bitcoin investors. Simply put, if super-powerful quantum computers eventually break Bitcoin's cryptography, it could be game over for crypto investors.
How dangerous is the quantum threat?
While there have been scams, hacks, and exploits that have drained crypto wallets and raided crypto exchanges in the past, the Bitcoin blockchain has never been directly compromised. Today's computers simply aren't powerful enough to break Bitcoin's cryptography. And that has always been a rallying point for backers of the digital currency.
Image source: Getty Images.
Back in March, though, researchers at Alphabet published a groundbreaking report on the scale and scope of the quantum threat to cryptocurrencies such as Bitcoin. And it wasn't good news. The Google researchers warned that 6.7 million BTC (out of 20 million currently circulating) could be at stake if quantum computers break Bitcoin's cryptography.
Top crypto investors immediately responded to these claims. According to Cathie Wood of Ark Invest, for example, the ability of quantum computers to break Bitcoin's cryptography is still many years away. Moreover, the value at risk is likely significantly lower than Google estimated.
CRYPTO: BTC
Key Data Points
If blockchain developers, financial institutions, and crypto infrastructure companies can unite around this security issue, they may entirely mitigate the risk. And that's where the Bitcoin Security Consortium enters the picture. It has the backing of some huge financial institutions, including BlackRock, which holds roughly 3.5% of all Bitcoin. And it also has the backing of top crypto companies, such as Coinbase Global and Strategy, formerly known as MicroStrategy.
That's a lot of firepower, and there's good reason to think that Bitcoin might be safe from the "quantum threat" for now. If enough resources are thrown at the problem, Bitcoin might be able to avoid a large-scale quantum attack on its blockchain. The launch of the new Bitcoin Security Consortium should be seen as a bullish factor for Bitcoin.
Is AI an even greater risk to Bitcoin?
There's one problem, though: The biggest threat to Bitcoin might not be quantum computing; it could be artificial intelligence (AI).
The newest version of Claude from Anthropic just demonstrated the ability to crack one type of very strong post-quantum signature.
It's not the end of the world. Bitcoin doesn't use the affected HAWK algorithm, which is only a potential candidate for widespread use in a quantum computing world. Other candidates for future use in quantum-resistant encryption may hold up better, and the vulnerability Claude exploited can be cured by using larger signatures, but it's still a significant achievement.
Therefore, I'm more concerned about AI than quantum right now. There's still plenty of time to combat the quantum threat, but time may be fleeting to combat the looming AI threat.
Regardless, I'm still bullish on Bitcoin. It has proven resilient for more than 17 years, and I expect more of the same over the next decade, regardless of how quickly technology advances.
